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An Assessment of Abnormal Deaths during the Great Leap Forward Using a Modified Lee-Carter Model Mi Hong, Jia Ning Population Research    2016, 40 (1): 22-37.   Abstract （7731）      PDF （825KB）（3579）       Knowledge map    Save There is a lack of official report by the Chinese government regarding the exact number of abnormal deaths during the Great Leap Forward．Using a modified Lee-Carter mortality prediction model，this study conducts reverse prediction based on China’s official age-specific mortality data to recon- struct and calculate the single-year-age mortality rate and the normal deaths assuming that there was no great famine．Then we estimate the abnormal deaths during the Great Leap Forward occurring between 1958 and 1961．If there had been no famine，there would have been 43. 39 to 43. 85 million normal deaths．With famine，abnormal deaths are estimated to be between 16. 24 and 23. 37 million． Our results suggest that the medium estimation of the abnormal deaths during the Great Leap Forward stands at no more than 19. 8 million． Related Articles | Metrics Cited: Baidu(1)

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Continuity or Change? Chinese Family in Transitional Era Yang Juhua, He Zhaohua Population Research    2014, 38 (2): 36-51.   Abstract （1817）      PDF （807KB）（5799）       Knowledge map    Save  With industrialization，urbanization and modernization, the family institution has inevitably undergone changes. China has witnessed extraordinary social transformations over the past three decades. These forces have jointly brought about profound changes to the family organization. This paper traces the changing trend, patterns and characteristics in family structure, explores the causes of such change, and analyzes its consequences to family relationships andfamily functions in recent years in China. It has found that family size has shrunk，number of generations in the family is reduced，family forms become more diversified, and family relationship remain intimate but distanced. Also, many traditional family functions have been taken over by public agencies，and family norms and culture have been reshaped. While changesoccur in various ways and important challenges remain，the Chinese family has been so far resilient to societal transformation due to its deeply rooted tradition and current structural constraints. These have made intergenerational reciprocity attractive and prevented the Chinese family from decline. In the future, the government and the family have to face challenges brought about by demographic transition, persistently large-scale migration, and changing norms towards the family. Related Articles | Metrics

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Dynamic Trend of China's Population Ageing and New Characteristics of the Elderly Yang Hanmo Population Research    2022, 46 (5): 104-116.   Abstract （4204）      PDF （1246KB）（2928）       Knowledge map    Save Based on the 7th National Population Census conducted in 2020 and previous censuses,this study analyzes the current situation and the dynamic trend of China's population ageing. This study first describes the health status, sources of livelihood, living arrangement, and marital status of the older population in general, and summarizes the characteristics of China's population ageing: The speed and depth of China's ageing process have been further strengthened, and the proportion of the elderly population in rural areas becomes higher. From 2010 to 2020, the self-assessed health status of the older people has improved, yet the gap between urban and rural areas is still significant; the proportion of widowed persons among the older people has declined, and the relative proportion of widowed persons is higher in rural areas and among women than their counterparts; the elderly security system is further improved, and the older people are more economically independent with less economic pressure; the phenomenon of “empty nest” is common among rural older people; and those who are unhealthy or living alone are more likely to rely on assistance from the government. Related Articles | Metrics

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Status and Changes of the Rural Children Left Behind in China: 2010-2020 Lyu Lidan, Mei Ziying, Li Rui, Li Shu, Yan Fang, Wang Xu, Duan Chengrong Population Research    2024, 48 (1): 103-117.   Abstract （836）      PDF （14931KB）（120）       Knowledge map    Save The phenomenon and issues of rural children left behind (RCLB) in China are affecting the flow of human capital between urban and rural areas. This paper clarifies the definition and steps for identifying RCLB, and uses the micro-data of the 2010 and 2020 Population Censuses to analyze relevant characteristics and changing trends over the past ten years. The analysis includes the following aspects: population size of RCLB, their age and sex structure, regional distribution, living arrangements, and educational development. The findings show that the population size of RCLB remained large, and the likelihood of being left-behind was closely related to age and sex. An increasing proportion of RCLB were cared for by grandparents as more mothers migrated between 2010 and 2020. RCLB no longer had any advantage in education opportunity compared with the average level of rural children. Over-age attendance was more noticeable among RCLB than the average level of rural children. We should continue to pay attention to the issue of RCLB and address its root causes. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Strategic Thinking on Developing Small and Medium-sized Cities to Balance Urbanization Gu Shengzu, Zheng Chao,Cao Yubo Population Research    2014, 38 (4): 19-26.   Abstract （1647）      PDF （102KB）（2422）       Knowledge map    Save Small and medium-sized cities have played important roles in China's new urbanization strategies. Small and medium-sized cities can not only help large cities avert over-concentration of population，but also avoid excessively decentralized rural industrialization in small towns. To develop small and medium-sized cities，characteristic industries and vocational education are required so that people can get employed in the cities and become residents easily. City infrastructure and public services are necessary for urban residents. Public-Private Partnership (PPP) may solve the problems of fund shortage that the local government is facing during the construction. Besides，supply system of accommodations should be modernized to help the rural-urban migration's dream of being settled down come true. Related Articles | Metrics

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Patterns and Determinates of Premarital Pregnancy in China Li Ding,Tian Siyu Population Research    2017, 41 (3): 87-100.   Abstract （502）      PDF （1142KB）（1964）       Knowledge map    Save The rising incidence of premarital pregnancy is largely an indication of the rapid change of the attitudes and practices about sex and marriage in China．Pregnancies ended with abortion also imply new threats to women’ s health and development．Based on discussing the data bias and theoretical shortages in past research，we propose new frames to measure and analyze this problem．Using data from the 2013 National Floating Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey we examine age，peri- od，and cohort trends in premarital pregnancy，and test hypotheses about the effect of migration．Re- sults show that younger cohorts have higher incidence of premarital pregnancy promoted by migration， especially for the rural migrants and those with lower education．We suggest to collect more data on premarital sex behavior and pregnancy，and to offer family planning services for the youth and adults who have not yet married． Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Strategic Considerations in Promoting Industrial Transfer and Return Migration in China Gu Shengzu, Sun Xiangdong, Liu Jiangri Population Research    2013, 37 (3): 3-10.   Abstract （1884）      PDF （570KB）（1907）       Knowledge map    Save Industrial transfer and return migration have been occurring simultaneously in China．This article describes and examines the changing situation of this new phenomenon．The share of manufacturing sector has been declining in more developed eastern areas which are being transferred to central and west areas，with an increasing return migration to central and west areas．The article argues that this new phenomenon can promote proper division of industry，reduce high social and economic cost of migration of rural workers，and help to build a rational urban system．It is proposed that governments should value and follow the laws of market，and promote the integration of industrial transfer and return migration．Policy suggestions in doing so are discussed． Related Articles | Metrics Cited: Baidu(7)

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The Effect of China’s Family Planning Policy on Women’s Social Status Lu Wanjun, Zhang Binbin Population Research    2016, 40 (4): 21-34.   Abstract （1064）      PDF （221KB）（3325）       Knowledge map    Save This paper assesses the effect of Chinese family planning policy on women’s social sta- tus using data from the 2010 Chinese General Social Survey．Employing regression models by difference-in-difference strategy，the study finds that urban women under the one-child policy have 0．71 more years of schooling than rural women，and the family planning policy also enables the intervention groups to have 1．45 more years of schooling than the control group—ethnic minorities．The family plan- ning policy has obviously promoted gender education equality．With the improvement of female education level，gender income gap began to shrink．But no significant reduction has occurred in the gender gap of return on education．Furthermore，Attitude to division of housework and to marital independence has not significantly changed． Related Articles | Metrics

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Recent Levels and Trends of Fertility in China Chen Wei，Duan Yuanyuan Population Research    2019, 43 (1): 3-17.   Abstract （795）      PDF （4629KB）（1101）       Knowledge map    Save Based on 2017 China Fertility Survey data, this paper evaluates China's fertility levels and trends in the decade preceding the survey by adopting and comparing multiple fertility measures, including total fertility rate (TFR), parity progressionbased total fertility rate (PPTFR), intrinsic total fertility rate (ITFR) and lifetime fertility rate (LFR). The results show that the average of TFR, PPTFR and ITFR over the past decade in China stands at around 1.65, 1.67 and 1.74 respectively. PPTFR and ITFR provide increasingly better estimations of the actual fertility by controlling the tempo effects in TFR. The lifetime fertility rate of cohort aged 35 and above is over 1.6 and increasing with age. Based on the multiple estimations, our main conclusion is that Chinas recent fertility level is above 1.6, and the implementation of the twochild policy has significantly increased the fertility level. Reduction in the TFR for first birth is largely driven by the tempo effect of delayed age at marriage and birth, while the marked increase in the TFR for second birth reflects the birthbunching effect due to the newly implemented two-child policy. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Only Child and Families with Only Child in China Song Jian Population Research    2005, 29 (2): 16-24.   Abstract （2057）      PDF （140KB）（5490）       Knowledge map    Save Related Articles | Metrics Cited: Baidu(26)

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Empty-nest Elderly Households in China: Trends and Patterns Tao Tao, Jin Guangzhao, Guo Yalong Population Research    2023, 47 (1): 58-71.   Abstract （2450）      PDF （12724KB）（668）       Knowledge map    Save Drawing upon data from 2000, 2010 and 2020 population censuses, this study examines trends and patterns of the empty-nest elderly households in China. The level of empty-nest elderly households has been increasing both in urban and rural areas over the last 20 years, and has increased in all China's provinces over the past decade. In 2020, empty-nest elderly population is estimated approximately to be 0.15 billion, of which 7.7 million are the oldest old living alone. The oldest old and female elderly are more likely to live alone. Nearly 70% of the living-alone elderly are widowed, and nearly 10% are still unmarried. Empty-nest elderly live mainly on family support, social security, and labor income. Their health conditions are generally good, but a small proportion are disabled. Few living-alone elderly have caregivers to provide care for them, and even for those disabled only 19.86% receive such care. Policy implications are discussed. Related Articles | Metrics

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Marriage and Divorce in China: Trends and Global Comparison Yu Jia,Zhao Xiaohang,Xie Yu Population Research    2020, 44 (5): 3-18.   Abstract （716）      PDF （2098KB）（642）       Knowledge map    Save Chinese family has experienced dramatic changes in recent decades, especially in terms of union formation and dissolution. Using data from Census, miniCensus, and China Family Panel Studies, we provide estimates of marriage and divorce in China. We further compare marriage and divorce trends of China with those in the United States, Japan, South Korea, Russia, British, France, German, Italy, and Spain. Our results show a delayed first marriage age and increased singlehood rate in China, yet marriage is still earlier and more universal in China than in other developed countries. We expect increases in both marriage age and singlehood rate as Chinas economy further develops. Despite a high crude divorce rate in recent China, our results based on age and cohort analysis reveal that divorce is much less prevalent in China than in other countries. With the persistent childcentered family culture, we argue that marriage in China will remain relatively stable in the short term. Related Articles | Metrics

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From Separation to Reunion: An Analysis of the Familization of Migrants in China Hu Xinqiang, Zhao Yufeng Population Research    2021, 45 (4): 69-84.   Abstract （731）      PDF （7252KB）（522）       Knowledge map    Save This article analyzes the data of 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey, exploring the status of the familization of migrants in China. The research redefines the concept and types of the familization of migrants through three aspects, i.e., mobility mode, mobility process, and mobility result. It divides the migrant families into separate families and aggregate families according to the degree of familization. The study finds that the current Chinese migrant families are evolving from separation to reunion. The flow pattern of the Chinese migrants has shifted from singularity to diversification, presenting the characteristics of familybased mobility; the flow process follows three different sequences: “one of the spouses goes first” “husband and wife go first together”, and “other members go first”; and the flow path can be further divided as “separation” and “reunion” based on the husband and wife relationship and the parentchild relationship. These results demonstrate an overall family status of “more reunion and less separation”. An indepth investigation of the degree of familization of the migrants will help to grasp the basic status of the migrant families and provide important implications for urbanization of the migrants. Related Articles | Metrics

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The Development of Mutual-Aid Social Aged Care in Rural China Liu Nina Population Research    2017, 41 (4): 72-81.   Abstract （396）      PDF （534KB）（2457）       Knowledge map    Save The purpose of rural mutual-aid social care is to provide mutual-aid in the daily life of eld- erly with the notion‘Helping Others Is Helping Self'. It mobilizes older people's human resource as the main service force to provide a new type of social support for the elderly. It can solve the problems of the weakened traditional family care in Chinese rural area and the increasing number of elderly left un- attended，and coordinate China's rural local situation and its modern transformation. It can be upgraded and developed during the construction process of rural area with Chinese characteristics. In recent years，many rural areas began to develop mutual-aid social care，and obtained repeatable successful experience. Chinese rural mutual-aid social care should take low-standard，wide-coverage，and sus- tainability as the goal，use“Helping Others Is Helping Self”concept as action core，and more effective- ly utilize the human resources of rural elderly. In the context of the wide differences lying between devel- oped and underdeveloped rural areas，this may be the best way to resolve the conflict of the rapid growth of elderly population and the limitation of elderly service. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Population Carrying Capacity: Evolution,Problems and Prospect Tong Yufen Population Research    2012, 36 (5): 28-36.   Abstract （1900）      PDF （647KB）（2817）       Knowledge map    Save There have long been debates and conflicting arguments in the studies of population carrying capacity． This paper examines dilemmas and challenges in the studies of population carrying capacity．There are three major difficulties in the research of population carrying capacity: difficulty in conducting quantitative models of population carrying capacity with empirical researches due to limitations in theoretical hypotheses，difficulty in accurately determining the results of population carrying capacity due to the changing nature and the complexity and uncertainty of the influencing factors of population carrying capacity，and difficulty in operationalizing policy measures deriving from the research on population carrying capacity．The author argues that population carrying capacity exists objectively，and scholars should not abandon their research just because of the difficulties and problems in the studies of population carrying capacity．There is a need in the research on population carrying capacity to disembarrass of that of biological carrying capacity．Studies on population carrying capacity need to be conducted in dynamic perspectives． Related Articles | Metrics Cited: Baidu(13)

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Estimating the Prevalence of Infertility in China Using Census Data Zhai Zhenwu and Liu Wenli Population Research    2020, 44 (2): 3-17.   Abstract （809）      PDF （1387KB）（1787）       Knowledge map    Save Some reports claim that Chinese womens infertility rate stands at around 15%, which might adversely affect the fertility rate. However, studies in different fields adopt different definitions and measurements of infertility, leading to considerable variations in prevalence estimates. The estimate (i.e. 15%) might be developed based on clinical or epidemiological definition, which does not necessarily mean that 15% of women are incapable of giving births throughout their lives. From the perspective of cohort fertility, we estimate the proportion of Chinese women aged 40-64 who have never given live births based on data from population censuses and annual sampling surveys. We argue that the proportion of women aged 40 and above reporting no live births or pregnancies has always been much lower than 15%. Universally Chinese women have given birth to at least one child by the end of their childbearing age. Related Articles | Metrics

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From First Demographic Transition to Second Demographic Transition: Reflections on the Modern Demographic Transition Liu Shuang, Wei Yinxia, Ren Hui Population Research    2012, 36 (1): 15-24.   Abstract （2472）      PDF （387KB）（3488）       Knowledge map    Save Based on a brief analysis of the narrowly-defined demographic transition and the classical model,this paper argues that the proposed theory of the second demographic transition broadly interprets the internal motivation and mechanism of action of the demographic changes by drawing upon the demographic "intermediate variables",reflecting on the relationship between modern demographic transition and social changes at the macro,meso and micro levels.Demographic transition is a multi-dimensional dynamic historical process,involving a set of transitions on marriage,reproduction,family,health,population control etc.Demographic transition is not only demographic change,but more importantly,is its nested social change.The unprecedented close relationship between the two reflects the social changes and social needs.Over the past 30 years China has made its population be adapted to economic development through family planning.In the next 30 to 50 years or even longer,China should make economic and social development be adapted to the changes and needs of the population.The end of development is to improve population survival and enhance life quality. Related Articles | Metrics

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Migrant Exogamy of the Ethnic Minorities in China Shen Si,Jian Xiaoqin and Xu Shiying Population Research    2019, 43 (6): 64-74.   Abstract （410）      PDF （648KB）（615）       Knowledge map    Save Drawing upon data from 2015 China Migrants Dynamic Survey, this article examines trends and patterns of migrant exogamy of China's ethnic minorities. We present estimates of exogamy rates of migrant ethnic minorities by education level, occupation and ethnic group. Compared with the exogamy rates derived from the Sixth Population Census, our results show that the exogamy rates of migrant ethnic minorities are higher than those of the overall ethnic minorities, while the exogamy rates vary across ethnic groups. Compared with the traditional exogamy circle of ethnic minorities, the exogamy circle of the migrant ethnic minorities has undergone great changes. The exogamy rates of migrant women are higher than those of migrant men. Improving educational level of ethnic minority population will play a positive role in promoting migration and exogamy of the ethnic minorities. Related Articles | Metrics

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Future Trends of China's Population and Aging:2015 ～2100 Zhai Zhenwu，Chen Jiaju，Li Long Population Research    2017, 41 (4): 60-71.   Abstract （898）      PDF （972KB）（2456）       Knowledge map    Save  The implementation of the universal two-child policy will have a profound influence on China's future trends of population and changing path of aging. Using data from the 1% population sampling survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2015，this paper conducts simulations of the size and structure of China's population over the years 2015-2100 by taking into account the potential demographic impacts of the fertility policy adjustment. The results show that China's total popula- tion will grow to the peak in around 2029 and then enter the era of negative population growth; China's population structure will be aging with shrinking working-age population size and expanding elderly population size; the speed of the decline in China's proportion of working-age population will be fast before 2050 and slow with fluctuations after 2050; China's size of elderly population will peak in around 2053 and then gradually begin declining; China will experience a rapid increase in proportion of elderly population before 2050 and the pace of population aging will slow down after 2050. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Peri-urbanization in China Li Aimin Population Research    2013, 37 (4): 80-91.   Abstract （1935）      PDF （902KB）（3198）       Knowledge map    Save Using data from the sixth population census，this paper explores the characteristics，formation mechanisms，and solution paths of peri-urbanization in China at province and prefecture level． Results show that more than 80% of the prefecture-level cities are subject to some degree of peri-urbanization．The higher the urbanization rate of permanent residents，the higher the urbanization rate of household registered population． Peri-urbanization increases from western to eastern regions，with the eastern region being of high-moderate peri-urbanization，the central region of moderate-low urbanization，and the western region of low-moderate urbanization，respectively． There is an increasing trend of peri-urbanization with the increase of the permanent residents.Among the capital cities，Shanghai has the highest peri-urbanization level，followed by Guangzhou，and Urumqi，and among the non-capital cities，Shengzhen has the highest level of peri-urbanization，followed by Dongguan.The city with lowest peri-urbanization level is Yichun．Regional development gap，household registration system，and distribution of interests are the major factors influencing peri-urbanization in China．Policies addressing peri-urbanization should be directed at promoting regional integration and development of urban and rural areas，adjusting interest allocation pattern，and deepening reforms of household registration system． Related Articles | Metrics

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Chinese Older Adults' Consumption Expenditure Structure and Its Determinants Yang Fan,Pan Yue,Huang Yingjiao Population Research    2020, 44 (5): 60-79.   Abstract （1050）      PDF （1125KB）（659）       Knowledge map    Save In the era of accelerated population aging, the proportion of older adults in the consumer group also increases tremendously. Based on data from China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey, this article employs the analytical framework of Kotler's consumption behavior model and K-means clustering analysis method to categorize different types of consumption structure for Chinese older adults. Logistic regression method is conducted to analyze the factors affecting the consumption structure upgrading. The results show that the consumption patterns of the older adults are diverse, and their upgrades have not been hindered. The transformation from the basic to the developmental consumption structure is driven by demand factors and restricted by resource factors, and also supported by social networks, technology, and other external factors. These factors have heterogeneous impacts on older adults from urban/rural areas at different ages and income levels. These differences call for differentiated policies targeting on different subgroups. Related Articles | Metrics

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Physical Exercises of Chinese Older Adults and Social Participation：Health Promotion and Network Expansion Yang Fan, Huang Yingjiao, Wang Fubaihui Population Research    2021, 45 (3): 97-113.   Abstract （705）      PDF （1458KB）（404）       Knowledge map    Save Using data from China Longitudinal Ageing Social Survey conducted in 2016, we perform binary logistic regression model to analyze the relationship between physical exercises and social participation of Chinese older adults. The structural equation modeling is used to estimate the mediating effects of subjective and objective health. Results suggest that frequent physical exercises significantly increase the probability of older adults’ social participation. Physical exercises affect social participation in both direct and indirect ways through health. The influence of physical exercises on social participation is different between urban and rural older adults, and is also moderated by age and marital status. This paper confirms the positive effects of physical exercises on older adults, and provides theoretical basis and policy implications for promoting the integrated development of sports and pension, and realizing active ageing and healthy China. Related Articles | Metrics

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Population Research    2002, 26 (2): 70-72.   Abstract （1189）      PDF （93KB）（3717）       Knowledge map    Save Related Articles | Metrics

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Population Research    2009, 33 (3): 89-98.   Abstract （1033）      PDF （262KB）（1799）       Knowledge map    Save Related Articles | Metrics

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Demographic Consequences of an Immediate Transition to a Universal Two-child Policy Zhai Zhenwu, Zhang Xianling, Jin Yongai Population Research    2014, 38 (2): 3-17.   Abstract （7977）      PDF （723KB）（11602）       Knowledge map    Save Fertility in China dropped below the replacement level in the early 1990s, and has been increasingly lower, arousing intense academic discussion on fertility policy adjustment．This paper estimates the size of objective population that is targeted by the two-child policy after computing the amount of the only children in 2012 based on the data of the 2005 national 1% population sampling survey, and analyzes its impact on number of annual births．The results show that on account of the large number of the objective population covered by the two-child policy and women's strong desire to have the second child，if there was an immediate transition to a universal two-child policy, number of annual births would sharply increase with the peak value up to nearly 50 million and a total fertility rate of about 4.5．However, immediately implementing the two-child policy could significantly retard the negative growth trend of population in the future, increase labor supply and slow down population aging in China． Related Articles | Metrics

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Residence Points System: Another“Patch”of Household Registration Reform? Characteristics，Problems and Countermeasures of Shanghai Residence Points System Xie Baofu Population Research    2014, 38 (1): 90-97.   Abstract （1810）      PDF （197KB）（2693）       Knowledge map    Save While residence points system has advantages in redirecting from management by conditions to management by points，diversifying points standards which are dynamic controllable，stratifying public services，orientating towards capabilities and contributions，and emphasizing local interests，there are also disadvantages in，for example，ignoring service management for the low income floating population，using efficiency means to solve equity problem，diminishing the quality of key services，and having difficulties in preventing rent-seeking behavior through fraud. To improve the system，residence card is needed to replace residence permit，allowing floating population to use for all consumption purposes. Application standards need to be lowered and the scope of public services needs to be expanded. However，in the areas of public rental housing，children＇s education and some other key services，there should be reasonable threshold. Provide appropriate quotas to those floating population who don’t meet the points but are legally residing and employed，allowing them to enjoy the same treatment with qualified applicants. Emancipate the mind，seek truth from facts，and properly solve localization service issues for low-income floating population. Since household registration involves interests that affect the situation as a whole，improving the system will need system and mechanism innovation of the national macro-management. Related Articles | Metrics

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Economic Income and Intergenerational Economic Support of the Urban and Rural Elderly in China#br# Sun Juanjuan Population Research    2017, 41 (1): 34-45.   Abstract （512）      PDF （200KB）（2272）       Knowledge map    Save Based on data from 2014 China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey conducted by Renmin University of China,this paper analyzes the income levels and intergenerational economic support of the Chinese elderl.The study explores the influencing factors of the income of urban and rural elderly using multiple linear regression model.The results show that the average income of the urban elderly is 4.5 times that of the rural elderly.The“upward”transfer of economic resources is the main pattern among the families of Chinese elderly,while“downward”transfer is also distinct among the urban elderly in terms of the percentage and degree of the transfers to their childre.Both the early endowed qualifications and multiple cumulative social factors in the elderly’ s life courses are significantly related to the income level of the Chinese elderl.However,big differences are found among rural and urban elderly in terms of the effects or even the directions of the influencing factors.This paper proposes that the key of enhancing economic security in later life is to improve people’ s economic independence instead of encouraging economic supports by family members for elderly． Related Articles | Metrics

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Trends and Characteristics of Male Marriage Squeeze in China Guo Zhen, Yang Liuqing, Liang Haili, Li Shuzhuo Population Research    2023, 47 (6): 91-106.   Abstract （332）      PDF （1325KB）（120）       Knowledge map    Save Using data from China's 7th Census and previous census data since 1990, this paper analyzes the trends and characteristics of marriage squeeze among men in recent decades. Results show that the marriage squeezes among men and its consequences have significantly manifested. The sex ratio of marriageable population has sharply increased from 2010 to 2020, and it is projected to peak at 116.13 by 2036. Unlike in the past, when the phenomenon was primarily concentrated in socio-economically underdeveloped regions, the surplus of never married men in economically developed areas with high urbanization rates becomes apparent. The marriage squeeze among men leads to substantial gender disparities in first marriage probabilities, with significantly lower probabilities of first marriage for men compared to women and a substantial increase in the expected number of years for never married men to get married. The scale of rural involuntary bachelors remains elevated, with urban areas experiencing a growing population of involuntary bachelors. The urban never married men aged 45 and above increased from 1.76 million to 3.88 million from 2010 to 2020. Involuntary bachelors have relatively limited economic resources, increased reliance on minimum subsistence allowance, and a rising proportion of unhealthy and solitary life in old age.     Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Population Distribution，Growth Pole and Incubation of World-class Megalopolis: A Comparison between Northeastern Megalopolis in the United States and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Megalopolis in China#br# Yin Deting,Shi Yi Population Research    2016, 40 (6): 87-98.   Abstract （474）      PDF （423KB）（1473）       Knowledge map    Save Based on the evolution of the megalopolis theories and the analyses of population census and statistical yearbook data，this study explores the issues of coordination development of Megalopolis’s population．Based on a clear distinction between the concept of core area and core city，and using methods of spatial autocorrelation and industrial structure deviation analyses for comparing the spatial scale，space structure of population and spatial coordination of industry between Northeast megalopolis in USA and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei megalopolis in China，this study shows that for a typical megalopolis，its incubation process presents a significant stage development pattern．The population proportion of its core city rises at the beginning，and then declines．The spatial distribution of population shows a changing trend from single pole to multi growth poles．The spatial structure of population has both characteristics of aggregation and dispersion．The adjustment of industrial structure in core region has major implications to the coordination development within Megalopolis． Related Articles | Metrics

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Population Research    2005, 29 (6): 92-95.   Abstract （4313）      PDF （77KB）（12266）       Knowledge map    Save Related Articles | Metrics

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Frailty Trajectory and Its Differentials among Older Adults in China: An Investigation Based on Frailty Index Wu Xiwei，Liu Hui Population Research    2019, 43 (4): 70-84.   Abstract （343）      PDF （533KB）（521）       Knowledge map    Save Frailty index has been widely used to study the speed of change in frailty among older adults, and to depict the dynamic process of frailty caused by aging in recent years. Taking life course perspective as theoretical background, this study emphasizes the implications of observing and understanding the frailty trajectory within cohort, and also assumes that a framework for understanding the intra-cohort pattern of frailty should have three essential properties: random variability, trajectory heterogeneity, and cumulative disadvantage. Furthermore, relating these three properties to the specific parameters for growth curve models, datasets from China Longevity and Heath Longitudinal Survey is applied to test them. The primary results indicate that frailty trajectory follows a Ushaped curve, but there is significant betweenperson variation, and withingroup rather than between-group cumulative disadvantage mainly explains how the frailty trajectory differentiates. Related Articles | Metrics

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Population Changes as Caused by the "Great Leap Forward Population Research    1998, 22 (1): 3-12.   Abstract （2797）      PDF （2613KB）（2088）       Knowledge map    Save Related Articles | Metrics

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Population Research    1986, 10 (1): 50-54.   Abstract （1073）      PDF （2405KB）（1678）       Knowledge map    Save Related Articles | Metrics

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Parenthood and Subjective Well-being: A Life-Cycle and Life-Course Perspective Li Ting,Fan Wenting Population Research    2016, 40 (5): 6-19.   Abstract （409）      PDF （303KB）（1508）       Knowledge map    Save Using data from CGSS 2003 ～2013 this paper explores the dynamic relationship between parenthood which is characterized by children’s number and sex structure and parents’subjective well-being．Through the hierarchical APC model，we derive the changing trends of such relationship along the time dimension of age，period and cohort．It is found that the effect of children’s number on parents’subjective wellbeing changes with parents’age．Having more children would bring negative effect to their young or middle aged parents but significantly promote the parents’happiness at their old age．Such age-differential effect is more salient for mothers．The happiness effect of children’s number also differs among parents’cohorts．Parents who were born in the 1940s enjoy the maximum happiness return from their children，after the cohort of which the positive effect rapidly diminishes due to the birth control regulation and demographic transition．Meanwhile，the happiness effects of having son differ between urban and rural parents．While having son slightly promote the subjective well-being of ru- ral parents，it significantly decreases the well-being of urban parents after their middle ages．Finally having daughters would marginally increases their parents’wellbeing，and the effect neither changes with parents’age or cohort nor differs between rural and urban mothers and fathers． Related Articles | Metrics

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The Effect of Fertility on Women's Wages in China Yu Jia, Xie Yu Population Research    2014, 38 (1): 18-29.   Abstract （1523）      PDF （307KB）（2519）       Knowledge map    Save Using 1993 － 2006 China Health and Nutrition Survey data，we test the motherhood penalty hypothesis with fixed-effects models. We find that fertility has a significant negative influence on women's wage and that each additional child lowers hourly wages by about 7 percent. In addition，the negative effect becomes larger as the number of children increases. The hypothesis holds true even if the women's human capital，job characteristics and family constraints are taken into account. We further explore whether the motherhood penalty varies by social group. The results show that the negative effect of having children is especially pronounced among women with high levels of education，women holding professional and managerial jobs，and women working in the state sector. The study shows that family factors play an important role in contributing to gender disparities in earnings and perhaps other labor market outcomes in contemporary China. Related Articles | Metrics

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New Features and Influencing Mechanisms of Migrant Long-term Residence Tendency Yang Xue,Wei Hongying Population Research    2017, 41 (5): 63-73.   Abstract （453）      PDF （155KB）（908）       Knowledge map    Save          Based on the dynamic monitoring data collected by the National Health and Family Planning Commission on floating population in 2015， this paper applies logistic regression model to analyze migrant long-term residence tendency in cities． The results show that migrant long-term residence tendency is influenced by their demographic， human capital， and economic characteristics， through which this migrant group has demonstrated a new feature of differentiation．Improvement of education enhances individual＇s long-term residence tendency． Junior college education being the dividing point， the higher educated migrants present a stronger tendency of residence． The increase of income level has a significantly effect on the residential preference of the entire group． Income of 6000 yuan being the dividing point， the high-income group of migrants have a stronger long-term residence tendency than the low-income group． When added into the model the housing expenditure， the increased housing expenditure elevates migrant residential preference． However， it also has a negative effect on the residential preference of the high-income group． Related Articles | Metrics

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A study on the Financial Planning of the Chinese Elderly for Later Life Zhang Wenjuan and Ji Jingyao Population Research    2018, 42 (2): 70-83.   Abstract （362）      PDF （1075KB）（713）       Knowledge map    Save Ｅｍｐｌｏｙｉｎｇ ｄａｔａ ｆｒｏｍ ２０１４ Ｃｈｉｎａ Ｌｏｎｇｉｔｕｄｉｎａｌ Ａｇｉｎｇ Ｓｏｃｉａｌ Ｓｕｒｖｅｙ （ＣＬＡＳＳ），ｔｈｉｓ ｐａｐｅｒ ａｎａｌｙｚｅｓ ｔｈｅ ｓｉｔｕａｔｉｏｎ ａｎｄ ｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｓ ｏｆ ｆｉｎａｎｃｉａｌ ｐｌａｎｎｉｎｇ ｂｅｈａｖｉｏｒ ｏｆ Ｃｈｉｎｅｓｅ ｅｌｄｅｒｌｙ ｆｏｒ ｔｈｅｉｒ ｌａｔｅｒｌｉｖｅｓ．Ｆｕｒｔｈｅｒｍｏｒｅ，ｔｈｉｓ ｐａｐｅｒ ｅｘｐｌｏｒｅｓ ｔｈｅ ｈｅｔｅｒｏｇｅｎｅｉｔｙ ｏｆ ｔｈｅ Ｃｈｉｎｅｓｅ ｅｌｄｅｒｌｙ ｉｎ ｔｈｅｉｒ ｆｉｎａｎｃｉａｌ ｐｌａｎｎｉｎｇ ｂｅｈａｖｉｏｒ ａｎｄ ｉｄｅｎｔｉｆｉｅｓ ｔｈｅ ｏｎｅｓ ｗｉｔｈ ｈｉｇｈ ｉｎｃｌｉｎａｔｉｏｎ ｔｏ ｃｏｎｄｕｃｔ ｆｉｎａｎｃｉａｌ ｐｌａｎｎｉｎｇ．Ｔｈｅ ｒｅｓｕｌｔｓ ｒｅｖｅａｌ ｔｈａｔ ｃａｓｈ ｓａｖｉｎｇｓ ａｒｅ ｓｔｉｌｌ ｔｈｅ ｍｏｓｔ ｉｍｐｏｒｔａｎｔ ｗａｙ ｏｆ ｆｉｎａｎｃｉａｌ ｐｒｅｐａｒａｔｉｏｎ ｆｏｒ ｔｈｅ ｅｌｄｅｒｌｙ．Ｅｌｄｅｒｌｙ ｉｎ ｕｒｂａｎ ａｎｄ ｒｕｒａｌ ａｒｅａｓ ｓｈｏｗ ｈｉｇｈ ｐｒｅｆｅｒｅｎｃｅ ｆｏｒ ｆｉｎａｎｃｉａｌ ｉｎｖｅｓｔｍｅｎｔ ａｎｄ ｌａｎｄ ｔｒａｎｓａｃｔｉｏｎ ｒｅｓｐｅｃｔｉｖｅｌｙ．Ｓｉｇｎｉｆｉｃａｎｔ ｄｉｖｅｒｓｉｔｙ ｃａｎ ｂｅ ｆｏｕｎｄ ｉｎ ｔｈｅ ｐｌａｎｎｉｎｇ ｂｅｈａｖｉｏｒ ｏｆ ｔｈｅ ｅｌｄｅｒｌｙ，ｓｕｃｈ ａｓ ｔｈｅ ｄｉｆｆｅｒｅｎｃｅｓ ｉｎ ｆｉｎａｎｃｉａｌ ｐｌａｎｎｉｎｇ ａｍｏｎｇ ｔｈｅ ｅｌｄｅｒｌｙ ｉｎ ｄｉｆｆｅｒｅｎｔ ｃｏｈｏｒｔｓ ａｎｄ ｗｉｔｈ ｄｉｆｆｅｒｅｎｔ ｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｓ ａｎｄ ｓｏｃｉａｌ ｓｉｔｕａｔｉｏｎｓ．Ｔｈｅ ｅｌｄｅｒｌｙ ｌｉｖｅ ｉｎ ｅａｓｔｅｒｎ ａｒｅａ，ｃｉｔｉｅｓ，ａｎｄ ｔｈｅ ｃｏｈｏｒｔ ｗｈｏ ｇａｖｅ ｂｉｒｔｈ ｌａｔｅ ａｒｅ ｍｏｒｅ ｌｉｋｅｌｙ ｔｏ ｍａｋｅ ｆｉｎａｎｃｉａｌ ｐｌａｎｎｉｎｇ．Ｍｅａｎｗｈｉｌｅ，ｓｏｃｉａｌ ｓｉｔｕａｔｉｏｎｓ ｉｎｔｅｒａｃｔｉｎｇ ｗｉｔｈ ｅｌｄｅｒｌｙ??ｓ ｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｓ ａｎｄ ｉｎｄｉｖｉｄｕａｌ ｃａｐａｃｉｔｙ ａｆｆｅｃｔ ｔｈｅｉｒ ｆｉ? ｎａｎｃｉａｌ ｐｌａｎｎｉｎｇ． Related Articles | Metrics

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A Review of Studies on China's Population and Macroeconomics Issues Song Shujie, Lu Yang Population Research    2020, 44 (6): 114-125.   Abstract （680）      PDF （571KB）（521）       Knowledge map    Save Fertility rate, population growth, and economic development are usually causally correlated with complex relationships among each other. The mainstream academic point of views towards demography from literature highly depend on the economic development level at that time. In the early time, the literature mainly focused on the interrelationship between population and economic development. After the 1990s, a growing number of scholars believed that demographic structure, rather than population size, is more important for economic growth. Demographic dividend is also correlated with demographic transition, fertility rate, and even the one-child policy. In addition, as economists began to introduce population issues into the framework of macroeconomic, lots of interdisciplinary research emerged in recent years. In this paper, population and macroeconomic issues are summarized according to different stages of research, and the potential research directions are given in the end. Related Articles | Metrics

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China’s Low Fertility and Its Determinants Guo Zhigang Population Research    2008, 32 (4): 1-12.   Abstract （1944）      PDF （1730KB）（2122）       Knowledge map    Save Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impact of Retirement on Physical and Mental Health among Chinese Elderly Liu Shenglong， Lang Xiaojuan Population Research    2017, 41 (5): 74-88.   Abstract （507）      PDF （1262KB）（827）       Knowledge map    Save        Using China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) of 2010，2012 and 2014，this paper explores the impact of retirement on Chinese elderly＇s physical and mental health based on the mandated retirement age policy within a framework of regression discontinuity (R D)． The mechanism of the impact of retirement on health is further tested． The results show that the impact of retirement on the health of males is not significant，while retirement has a significant positive influence on females ＇ self － rated health and mental health，the mechanism of which is that retirement significantly increases female physical exercise per week． Although retirement increases male physical exercise per week in a similar manner，it also raises the probability of overweight for males，which is likely to offset the effect of exercise to a certain extent．Chinese government is considering implementing policies for gradually postponing the retirement age of employees． The results of this paper indicate that postponing retirement should not be made at the expense of elderly＇s health，and China needs to push forward the“healthy aging”strategy． Related Articles | Metrics