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Dynamic Trend of China's Population Ageing and New Characteristics of the Elderly Yang Hanmo Population Research    2022, 46 (5): 104-116.   Abstract （4204）      PDF （1246KB）（2928）       Knowledge map    Save Based on the 7th National Population Census conducted in 2020 and previous censuses,this study analyzes the current situation and the dynamic trend of China's population ageing. This study first describes the health status, sources of livelihood, living arrangement, and marital status of the older population in general, and summarizes the characteristics of China's population ageing: The speed and depth of China's ageing process have been further strengthened, and the proportion of the elderly population in rural areas becomes higher. From 2010 to 2020, the self-assessed health status of the older people has improved, yet the gap between urban and rural areas is still significant; the proportion of widowed persons among the older people has declined, and the relative proportion of widowed persons is higher in rural areas and among women than their counterparts; the elderly security system is further improved, and the older people are more economically independent with less economic pressure; the phenomenon of “empty nest” is common among rural older people; and those who are unhealthy or living alone are more likely to rely on assistance from the government. Related Articles | Metrics

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Postponement of Marriage and Childbearing in China during 1990-2020: Trends and Characteristics Zhang Xianling, Sheng Yi'nan Population Research    2023, 47 (5): 88-101.   Abstract （696）      PDF （1695KB）（722）       Knowledge map    Save Using the census and sampling survey data between 1990 and 2020, this study examines the postponement of marriage and childbearing in China. The results show a persistent increase in the mean age at first marriage in urban and rural China. However, the postponement of the first marriage started earlier in urban areas than rural areas during 2000-2010. The postponement of first marriage in rural areas accelerated during 2010-2020. This led to a widening and then narrowing trend of the urban-rural gap. Age at first marriage differs across educational attainment; women and men with higher education significantly postpone their first marriage. Men with higher education also show a lower likelihood of staying unmarried for life. The curve of age-specific fertility rate for women at childbearing age has shifted downwards to the right, and the peak childbearing age of urban women has shifted more than that of rural women. The mean age at childbearing has been increasing, with a more rapid speed in 2000-2010 and then a slower one in 2010-2020. The mean age at childbearing of each parity has been postponed, especially for the first and second births. Women with different educational levels all postpone childbearing, and those with higher education levels show larger postponement. Related Articles | Metrics

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Empty-nest Elderly Households in China: Trends and Patterns Tao Tao, Jin Guangzhao, Guo Yalong Population Research    2023, 47 (1): 58-71.   Abstract （2450）      PDF （12724KB）（668）       Knowledge map    Save Drawing upon data from 2000, 2010 and 2020 population censuses, this study examines trends and patterns of the empty-nest elderly households in China. The level of empty-nest elderly households has been increasing both in urban and rural areas over the last 20 years, and has increased in all China's provinces over the past decade. In 2020, empty-nest elderly population is estimated approximately to be 0.15 billion, of which 7.7 million are the oldest old living alone. The oldest old and female elderly are more likely to live alone. Nearly 70% of the living-alone elderly are widowed, and nearly 10% are still unmarried. Empty-nest elderly live mainly on family support, social security, and labor income. Their health conditions are generally good, but a small proportion are disabled. Few living-alone elderly have caregivers to provide care for them, and even for those disabled only 19.86% receive such care. Policy implications are discussed. Related Articles | Metrics

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Where Do the Low skilled Laborers Go in the Era of “Machine Substitution”?A Study Based on China Labor force Dynamic Survey Data Qi Jianhong, Fu Jingjing Population Research    2022, 46 (4): 114-128.   Abstract （1055）      PDF （16422KB）（629）       Knowledge map    Save This study investigates the impact and mechanism of robots on the inter-city outflow of low-skilled laborers based on the China Labor-force Dynamic Survey and customs data. The results show that robots reduce the number of jobs in the secondary industry and replace the low-skilled laborers, increasing the probability of low-skilled workers' outflow across cities. In terms of industry transfer, robots lead to a higher probability of low-skilled laborers under 45 years old flowing into the service industry and low-skilled laborers above 45 years old flowing into primary industry. In terms of city transfer, the probability of low-skilled laborers flowing into the city's service industry and first-tier city's service industry has increased due to robots. In terms of inter-region movement, more educated low-skilled laborers tend to move to East China, while less educated low-skilled laborers tend to move to the west regions. The results have important policy implications for formulating policy regarding robot industry and population movement. Related Articles | Metrics

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The Influence of COVID-19 on Birth Numbers in China Zhang Cuiling, Li Yue, Yang Wenzhuang, Zhang Xuying Population Research    2021, 45 (3): 88-96.   Abstract （1460）      PDF （2454KB）（622）       Knowledge map    Save Based on the analysis of national birth monitoring data, this paper suggests that declining number of births in recent years in China is driven jointly by the reduction of births among women aged below 30, the decrease of first births and the waning growth of the second births. The outbreak of COVID-19 further drastically depressed the number of births among women aged below 30 and reduced the number of first births in the fourth quarter of 2020, resulting in an accelerated decline in the number of births in 2020. Related Articles | Metrics

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Population Ageing and Medical Expenses Increase Yue Zhang, Qin Xigang Population Research    2021, 45 (5): 104-116.   Abstract （1643）      PDF （1516KB）（615）       Knowledge map    Save This study investigates the causes of increasing medical costs from the aspects of concentration and persistence. Counterfactual calculation shows that population ageing increases medical expenses at different subpoints and narrows the distribution gap of medical expenses, which are caused by the high concentration and persistence of medical expenses of the older population. The medical cost of the older population is not only characterized by a high amount of single hospitalization cost, a large proportion of continuous hospitalization, and a strong dispersion of medical cost, but also induces a heavier burden in all of the five levels of medical cost. The influence of population ageing to the increase of medical costs is lower than that of the change of the whole population age structure. The influence of endowment effect increases with time, and the medical costs of high percentiles increase the most. In addition, the improvement of health awareness plays a dominant role in the structural effects that affect the growth of medical costs. The theoretical framework constructed in this study which describes how the medical demand of the aged population affects the medical cost can explain the reality of the rapid growth of medical cost under the background of population ageing in China. Related Articles | Metrics

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Motherhood Penalty on Chinese Women in Labor Market Yang Fan, He Yuchen Population Research    2022, 46 (5): 63-77.   Abstract （924）      PDF （1268KB）（576）       Knowledge map    Save Using China Family Panel Study ( CFPS) data from 2010 to 2018 and an event-study framework, we explore the impacts of children on the dynamic trajectory of female labor force participation and hours worked. The results show that the arrival of the first child creates a sudden and substantial decrease in the employment and monthly hours worked. The impacts sustain until the child is 4 years old. Within 0 - 3 years after the birth of the first child the employment and the monthly hours worked decreased significantly. Nevertheless, after 4 years beyond the birth of the first child, there is no statistical difference in the employment and monthly hours worked compared with the pre-birth stage. Compared with women, there is no significant impact of children on the labor supply for men.Meanwhile, we provide evidence that the motherhood penalties on labor supply are following the law of diminishing marginal cost. We end with the heterogeneity analyses which show that the college-educated and younger cohorts experience smaller labor supply declines. This study helps understand the magnitude and dynamic trajectory of motherhood penalties in China and provides illumination for the family policy to help women balance family and work and families realize their fertility intention from a perspective of international comparison. Related Articles | Metrics

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From Separation to Reunion: An Analysis of the Familization of Migrants in China Hu Xinqiang, Zhao Yufeng Population Research    2021, 45 (4): 69-84.   Abstract （730）      PDF （7252KB）（522）       Knowledge map    Save This article analyzes the data of 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey, exploring the status of the familization of migrants in China. The research redefines the concept and types of the familization of migrants through three aspects, i.e., mobility mode, mobility process, and mobility result. It divides the migrant families into separate families and aggregate families according to the degree of familization. The study finds that the current Chinese migrant families are evolving from separation to reunion. The flow pattern of the Chinese migrants has shifted from singularity to diversification, presenting the characteristics of familybased mobility; the flow process follows three different sequences: “one of the spouses goes first” “husband and wife go first together”, and “other members go first”; and the flow path can be further divided as “separation” and “reunion” based on the husband and wife relationship and the parentchild relationship. These results demonstrate an overall family status of “more reunion and less separation”. An indepth investigation of the degree of familization of the migrants will help to grasp the basic status of the migrant families and provide important implications for urbanization of the migrants. Related Articles | Metrics

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“Complementary Substitution” between Family Support and Individual Pension: Theory and Evidence Mu Huaizhong Population Research    2022, 46 (1): 82-96.   Abstract （691）      PDF （14144KB）（506）       Knowledge map    Save Based on the principle of balanced income distribution, this paper constructs a “complementary substitution” mathematical model for the income distribution of family support and individual pension, and estimates appropriate levels for both family support and individual pension. This paper also studies the optimization of economic structure of family support and individual pension from the theoretical and empirical perspectives. The results show that: (1) the income distribution of family support and individual pension substitutes each other while they are complementary under the condition of prolonging working age; (2) the equilibrium time point of the replacement of family support and individual pension is 2 children, and the marginal substitution efficiency of family support pension and individual pension decreases; (3) with the increase of life expectancy, the family support income distribution structure changes, the family support coefficient decreases, and the rise of individual pension coefficient is faster than the drop of family support coefficient; (4) the “complementary and substitution” effects between family support and individual pension follow an invertedV curve, and the turning point is close to the replacement level of total fertility rate of 2.1. Related Articles | Metrics

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Analysis Framework, Concept, and Pathways of Digital Divide Governance for Older Adults: From the Perspective of Digital Divide and Knowledge Gap Theory Lu Jiehua, Wei Xiaodan Population Research    2021, 45 (3): 17-30.   Abstract （1027）      PDF （2125KB）（482）       Knowledge map    Save The population ageing combined with the development of digital information makes it more difficult for older people to integrate into the digital life. In this context, it is urgent to build a system to govern the digital divide faced by older adults. An analysis framework was constructed for the governance of the digital gap faced by older adults from the theoretical perspective of the digital gap and knowledge gap. The specific manifestations, root causes, and possible adverse consequences of digital access gap, usage gap, and knowledge gap were analyzed one by one. It was made clear that the governance of the digital divide faced by older adults should be peopleoriented, focusing on both technical efficiency and social benefits. The major concepts should include participatory governance, inclusive governance, allround governance, and sustainable governance. The primary objective is to generally eliminate the digital information threshold, make all older adults enjoy fair development, and comprehensively help them integrate into the digital society. Approaches and strategic ideas for the governance of the digital divide faced by older adults are also further elaborated. Related Articles | Metrics

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When Fertility Support Policies are Effective？ Gender Equality, the Combination of Fertility Support Policies, and the Rebound of Total Fertility Rate in 27 Countries Zhang Yang, Li Lingchun Population Research    2023, 47 (4): 3-19.   Abstract （942）      PDF （13910KB）（464）       Knowledge map    Save China has witnessed a low total fertility rate for decades; thus, it is imperative to build a fertility support policy system based on the experience of other lowfertility countries. Drawing on a constructed longitudinal dataset, we investigate the associations of different fertility support policy combinations with a fertility rebound and the moderating effects of gender equality on these associations. We find that policy combinations supporting the dualearners model are more conducive to fertility rebound, compared to those supporting the malebreadwinner model. Economic support policies have a stable positive relationship with the total fertility rate, while the effects of service and time support policies are contingent upon gender equality. Specifically, the effects of service and time support policies are more pronounced with higher levels of gender equality. These findings suggest that we need to consider the coordination and combination of different types of fertility policies, and rethink the value orientation and social background behind the policies, and promote a genderfriendly social environment. Related Articles | Metrics

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Social Participation Patterns and Its Influence on Social Adaptation of Chinese Older Adults Xie Lili, Wang Fei, Hu Kang Population Research    2021, 45 (5): 49-63.   Abstract （1267）      PDF （1432KB）（454）       Knowledge map    Save This study uses data from the 2018 China Longitudinal Ageing Social Survey to explore patterns of older adults' social engagement by latent class analysis. Based on their participation in personal life domain (i.e. learning and communication, personal recreation, working, and volunteering) and family life domain (i.e. caring for parents, caring for grandchildren, and caring for children), four patterns are discovered, including Personal-Family Balanced Activity (P-F), PersonalCentered Activity (P-C), Family-Centered Activity (F-C), and Low Activity. Linear regression analysis reveals that Low Activity are associated with the lowest social adaptation, followed by F-C Activity, while P-C and P-F Activity achieved the best scores and showed no statistical difference. Moreover, urban-rural differences are found in the relationships between social participation patterns and social adaptation. The results suggest that we should protect the social participation rights of older adults, enrich the ways and contents of social participation, and balance their personal life with family life to enhance their abilities to adapt to the social development and changes. Related Articles | Metrics

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New Developments of the Ethnic Minority Population in China Xu Shiying Population Research    2021, 45 (3): 82-87.   Abstract （731）      PDF （696KB）（448）       Knowledge map    Save Based on data of population censuses in China, this paper briefly describes the development process of the ethnic minority population, discusses the trends and differences in the populations of the ethnic groups in China, and analyzes the characteristics and changes of regional distribution, age structure, mobility, intermarriage and education of the ethnic minorities in China. Combined with the 7th population census bulletin, the paper provides a preliminary judgment on the population situation of China's ethnic minorities in 2020. Related Articles | Metrics

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China's Low Fertility and Provincial Differences: Fertility Index-based Observation Song Jian, Hu Bo, Jiang Chunyun, Chen Wenqi Population Research    2023, 47 (5): 74-87.   Abstract （460）      PDF （1379KB）（437）       Knowledge map    Save Focusing on the phenomenon that childbearing-age people "do not want to give birth, ""dare not to give birth," and "are unable to give birth," we comprehensively consider the three dimensions of fertility—intention, conditions, and structure, build a fertility composite index according to the relevant theories of low fertility rate, observe and analyze the current situation of low fertility rate in China, and make inter-provincial comparisons. We find that the average national fertility composite index is 0.492. The fertility condition index is the lowest, reflecting the constraints on fertility caused by employment and income factors and lack of fertility support. The structural characteristics of the childbearing-age people are consistent in all provinces, while the fertility intention and fertility conditions are spatially heterogeneous. There is a positive association between fertility index and total fertility rate. With a 0.1 unit increase in fertility index, total fertility rate increases by 0.286 units. Improving fertility intention can help effectively increase the total fertility rate; however, the changes in fertility conditions and fertility structure have not been able to effectively promote the total fertility rate. It is thus necessary to establish, improve, and implement long-term fertility support in order to reshape the fertility intention and change the behavior of the population. Related Articles | Metrics

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Physical Exercises of Chinese Older Adults and Social Participation：Health Promotion and Network Expansion Yang Fan, Huang Yingjiao, Wang Fubaihui Population Research    2021, 45 (3): 97-113.   Abstract （705）      PDF （1458KB）（404）       Knowledge map    Save Using data from China Longitudinal Ageing Social Survey conducted in 2016, we perform binary logistic regression model to analyze the relationship between physical exercises and social participation of Chinese older adults. The structural equation modeling is used to estimate the mediating effects of subjective and objective health. Results suggest that frequent physical exercises significantly increase the probability of older adults’ social participation. Physical exercises affect social participation in both direct and indirect ways through health. The influence of physical exercises on social participation is different between urban and rural older adults, and is also moderated by age and marital status. This paper confirms the positive effects of physical exercises on older adults, and provides theoretical basis and policy implications for promoting the integrated development of sports and pension, and realizing active ageing and healthy China. Related Articles | Metrics

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Short Video APP Use and the Life of Mid-age and Older Adults：An Exploratory Study Based on a Social Survey Jin Yongai, Liu Wenli, Zhao Menghan, Wang Donghui, Hu Wenbo Population Research    2021, 45 (3): 31-45.   Abstract （831）      PDF （697KB）（400）       Knowledge map    Save China is experiencing rapid population ageing and witnesses a wide spread of information technology. The rise of novel internet technologies may increasingly influence older adults' daily life. Using data from a survey on midage and older adults' short video application use conducted in 2021, this study investigates the relationships between short video app usage and midage and older adults' social networks, commutation with family members and friends, social inclusion and mental health. Results show that the moderate use of short video app increases midage and older adults' communication with families and friends, expands their social networks, and promotes their social inclusion. We should also acknowledge that older people face many problems and risks in the digital era. Findings suggest that collective efforts should be made by government, corporations, local communities as well as families to mitigate agerelated digital divide. Related Articles | Metrics

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Deviation between Fertility Desire and Fertility Behavior in China and the Effect of Family Support Song Jian, Alimire·Alimu Population Research    2021, 45 (4): 18-35.   Abstract （634）      PDF （893KB）（399）       Knowledge map    Save No consensus has been reached on the degree of deviation between fertility desire and behavior of childbearingage women and the effect of family support. Based on the data of National Population and Family Dynamic Monitoring Survey in 2019, this paper analyzes the deviation and explores the role of family support by constructing the concepts of “deviation degree” “deviation types” and “consistency level”. The results show that the deviation degree is 0.14 children on average, and the women with no deviation account for 85.45 percent in the sample. More than 40 percent of women at childbearing age have fertility desires and behaviors in accordance with the twochild policy requirements implemented at that time. All kinds of family support significantly increase the probability of having higher fertility desire than the behavior and help to fulfill their unsatisfied fertility desire for women aged over 40. Family support should be strengthened from all aspects to improve the consistency of fertility desire and behavior of childbearingage women. Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impacts of Social Software Usage on Social Networks of Mid aged and Older Adults Xie Lili, Yang Lu, Hu Bo, Wang Fei Population Research    2022, 46 (5): 91-103.   Abstract （656）      PDF （1198KB）（398）       Knowledge map    Save Using data from a survey on the use of online social tools by mid-aged and older adults in 2021, this paper investigates the relationships between the variety, relationship types, and activity level of online communities, and social networks of mid-aged and older adults by using the structural equation modeling. The study found that the mid-aged and older adults had better relationships with their relatives and friends as the variety of online communities increased. Strong and sub-strong tie groups could promote family and friend networks, respectively, while sub-weak and weak tie groups could promote both types of networks. Moreover, the higher the activity in the online communities, the greater the promotion of their friend networks. Findings promote the understanding of changes in the social network in the internet era. Online communities break through the physical distance in the traditional differential mode of associations by enhancing family relations, strengthening and expanding friend relations horizontally, and helping restore interrupted friend relations vertically. The breadth and depth of the social network of mid-aged and older adults have been developed through online communities. Related Articles | Metrics

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Early Childhood Health Investments and Educational Performance in Later Stage: Taking Breastfeeding as an Example#br# Song Yueping, Zhao Yi Population Research    2021, 45 (6): 81-95.   Abstract （581）      PDF （12401KB）（367）       Knowledge map    Save Early life is a window of opportunity for growth and development, and health conditions in the early years provide the building blocks for future development. Previous studies have shown that breastfeeding is one of the most effective ways to ensure child health and survival. Based on the theories of Early Childhood Development and Human Capital, Cumulative Health Advantage, and Education Production Function, this study looks into the impact of breastfeeding on children's long term educational performance. We also explore the mechanism using the second, third, and fourth wave China Educational Panel Survey (CEPS) data. Propensity Score Matching method is used to control the possible endogenous problems of the model. We find that breastfeeding has a significant positive effect on children's long term educational performance. Different durations of breastfeeding have different effects on educational performance. Health status at an early age and cognitive ability are the mediating factors that breastfeeding affects the educational performance. Related Articles | Metrics

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Internet and Life of Older Adults: Challenges and Opportunities Du Peng, Han Wenting Population Research    2021, 45 (3): 3-16.   Abstract （824）      PDF （1044KB）（360）       Knowledge map    Save Based on the analysis of the Internet's impact on Chinese older adults' lives, this study discusses how to take advantage of Internet development to bring new opportunities to the national strategy of actively responding to population ageing and enriching the lives of older adults. This study finds that the proportion of Chinese older adults using the Internet is rapidly increasing. However, there are still difficulties in “digital inclusion”—gaps between older adults' ability to adapt to digital life and the speed at which Internet applications penetrate their daily lives. Fostering a digitally inclusive Internet environment and digital life for older adults requires peopleoriented thinking, promoting objective technologies, an inclusive social environment, and the initiative of the older adults. It is a joint effort of government guidance, market initiative, social interaction, family support, and the older adults' participation. The mutual promotion between the Internet and older adults' lives will bring digital dividends to older people. Related Articles | Metrics

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Reassessment of China's Fertility Level:An Analysis of the 7th Population Census Data Zhai Zhenwu, Jin Guangzhao, Zhang Yiyang Population Research    2022, 46 (4): 3-13.   Abstract （1437）      PDF （9734KB）（358）       Knowledge map    Save The key to accurately assessing China's fertility level lies in high-quality data. The 7th population census has obtained data of very high quality mainly due to the newly added ID number registration and application of information technology, providing a good opportunity for reassessing China's fertility level. This study shows that the total fertility rate (TFR) of China maintained above 1.6 from 2006 to 2017, exceeded 1.7 in most of the years, but dropped sharply from 2017 to 2020. The TFR was fluctuating considerably, ranging from a low of just 1.3 in 2020 to a high of 1.89 in 2012 and 1.88 in 2017, with a 15-year average of 1.7. Fertility preferences, fertility policy adjustments, and COVID-19 had marked influence on fertility level. The average number of children ever born suggests that there is still potential for improvements in China's fertility level, and the key measure is to fully eliminate the emerging fertility inhibiting factors and build a fertility/family-friendly society to tap this potential. Related Articles | Metrics

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Impact of the Transition of Sex Ratio at Birth on Population Ageing in China Zhang Zhen, Ma Qian Population Research    2022, 46 (1): 3-18.   Abstract （1389）      PDF （12803KB）（357）       Knowledge map    Save Since the 1980s, the sex ratio at birth (SRB) in China has been abnormally high for more than 40 years, and it might take 30 years to return to normal. The 70year SRB transition profoundly affects the population dynamics. Based on the most recent data on SRB, fertility and mortality, this study focuses on the impact of the SRB transition on the age structure in China. The results show that abnormally high SRB has reduced the number of births and thus the population size, thereby has sped up population ageing. Normalizing SRB can alleviate population ageing. Therefore, normalizing SRB could be taken as one of the strategies to actively cope with population ageing, aside from improving gender inequality. Related Articles | Metrics

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How Does Population Ageing Impact Technological Innovation in China?Evidence Based on System GMM Method and Dynamic Threshold Regression Shen Ke, Li Yaning Population Research    2021, 45 (4): 100-113.   Abstract （931）      PDF （12164KB）（354）       Knowledge map    Save Based on the dynamic panel data for 31 provinces in China between 2000 and 2018, this paper examines the heterogeneous impacts of population ageing on technological innovation. We apply the system GMM method and reveal a humpshaped relationship between population ageing and innovation. Moreover, as compared with incremental innovation, population ageing poses a more noticeable negative impact on radical innovation at an earlier stage. We further employ the dynamic threshold regression to explore the nonlinear relationship between ageing and technological innovation. The results confirm the threshold effect of urbanization. In other words, once urbanization is below 86%, population ageing inhibits innovation.Otherwise, it could promote innovation. Therefore, the urbanization process could efficiently attenuate the discouraging effect of ageing on innovation. Related Articles | Metrics

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Family Changes in Contemporary China: Characteristics, Trends, and Prospects Ma Guoqing Population Research    2023, 47 (1): 43-57.   Abstract （2821）      PDF （14124KB）（350）       Knowledge map    Save Family change is an important perspective to unveil social changes in China. Drawing upon data from population censuses, this paper examines the characteristics and trends of Chinese family change over the past several decades, particularly after China's reform and opening-up, focusing on family size, family relationship, and family strategy. Chinese household size has been declining, and the family intergenerational structure has shifted to one generation households, with family types being diversified and dominated by nuclear families. Family relationships tend to become more equal and democratic, family production function is increasingly expanded, while family support function presents different characteristics between urban and rural areas. Under the changing urban-rural divide in China and globalization, the option of family strategies has been manifested in the active adjustment and adaptation of contemporary Chinese families in response to the rapid and complex social changes. While being dominated by nuclear and stem families, Chinese traditional family patterns would become increasingly diversified in the future. Related Articles | Metrics

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An Assessment of Lifetime Childlessness in China Based on the 7th Population Census Zhang Cuiling, Jiang Yu, Zhuang Yaer, Jiang Quanbao, Yu Dian, Liu Wenli Population Research    2023, 47 (3): 78-93.   Abstract （1154）      PDF （13276KB）（346）       Knowledge map    Save According to the 7th National Population Census of China, the estimated rate of childlessness for women aged 49 is 5.16% in 2020, lower than that reported in the European Union (19%) and in the United States (11%). The heterogeneity of childlessness in China is increasing, showing distinct differences regarding to period, cohort, education, place of residence, and regions. The childlessness level of women aged 49 with high levels of education, living in cities and regions with ultra-low fertility levels is much higher. Factors like the acceleration of urbanization, the continued popularization of higher education, and the ongoing trend of marriage and childbearing delay would further promote the rise of the childlessness level. Given China's low share of non-marital births and third births and above, the continuous rise of childlessness level would have a stronger negative impact on the newborn population and total fertility rates, thereby affecting China's ability to maintain the aimed suitable fertility level. The government should attach great importance to and address the issue in advance. Related Articles | Metrics

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Trends in Educational Assortative Marriages in China by Couple Hukou Status, 1960-2018: An Urban-Rural Integration Perspective Du Yongxiao, Dong Hao Population Research    2023, 47 (4): 98-113.   Abstract （725）      PDF （15063KB）（331）       Knowledge map    Save This study, from an urban-rural integration perspective, examines and compares trends in educational assortative marriages by couple's rural/non-rural hukou status. We use new methods, such as rank-rank correlation and Exchange Index, to analyze 81756 couples from nationally representative survey data (i.e., the 2003-2018 CGSS and 2010 CFPS). We find a substantial and persistent difference between rural and urban marriages. Couples who both have an urban hukou have more similar educational statuses than couples of whom either one or both have a rural hukou. This gap in homogamous tendency is mainly driven by highly educated couples. Moreover, we find gender-asymmetrical hukou-status exchange patterns for rural-urban inter-marrying couples, whose relative advantages in hukou or educational status could not compensate each other. These new findings reveal the profound influence of unbalanced development between rural and urban regions, highlighting potential directions for future policies for better incorporating rural-urban integration with sustained population development. Related Articles | Metrics

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The Population Thoughts of the Communist Party of China in the Past Century and the Modernization and Chinalization of Marxist Population Theory Yang Chenggang, Yang Zifan Population Research    2021, 45 (6): 3-13.   Abstract （1452）      PDF （10898KB）（324）       Knowledge map    Save The population thoughts of the Communist Party of China over the past century have gone through three major development stages, developing from Chen Duxiu and Li Dazhao's population thoughts, Mao Zedong's population thoughts to the population views in the theoretical system of socialism with Chinese characteristics. The population thoughts of the Communist Party of China have stuck to the fundamental positions, viewpoints, and methods of Marxist Population Theory, and adapted to Chinese economic and social contexts. These population thoughts represent the modernization and Chinalization of Marxist Population Theory, and largely influence China's population development. In the theoretical system of socialism with Chinese Characteristics, Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era is the most recent development of the CPC's thoughts on population. The population thoughts of the CPC serve as an important basis for the Chinese demographic research and socialist population theories with Chinese characteristics. Related Articles | Metrics

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Satisfaction of Fertility Desires for Couples of Childbearing Age and the Effect of Family Characteristics: An Empirical Study Based on the Three dimension Fertility Perspective Song Jian, Chen Wenqi Population Research    2022, 46 (5): 3-18.   Abstract （725）      PDF （1217KB）（323）       Knowledge map    Save The deviation between fertility desires and behaviors is common among Chinese people of childbearing age. Little attention has been paid to the satisfaction of fertility desires from gender and time dimensions and its determinants. Based on data from the 2021 national sample survey conducted by the Center for Population and Development Studies of Renmin University of China, this paper analyzes the satisfaction of fertility desires and the effect of family characteristics from three dimensions. The results show that more than half of the couples of childbearing age want to have children but failed to meet their desired number; forty percent failed to satisfy the desired sex; more than eighty percent did not meet the desired time with a later age of childbearing than the desired timing. The socioeconomic status and fertility potential of family play an important role in satisfying the desired number for all the couples. The effect of family fertility culture is not significant. The couples with unsatisfied sex preference tend to have more children to fulfill it. It is suggested to make precise policies for different types of couples of childbearing age to help them meet their fertility desires. Related Articles | Metrics

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Negative Population Growth in China: Characteristics, Challenges, and Responses Zhai Zhenwu, Jin Guangzhao Population Research    2023, 47 (2): 11-20.   Abstract （1368）      PDF （9308KB）（318）       Knowledge map    Save China's negative population growth is an objective law of population development, with a unique transition process and development trend. In the future, long-term and rapid negative population growth may pose challenges to the economy. It is necessary to cope with negative population growth actively by establishing a fertility support policy system, improving population quality, optimizing the spatial layout of the population, raising per capita consumption, and enhancing labor productivity. Related Articles | Metrics

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Assessing Accuracy of Age Reporting in the 7th Population Census of China Zhang Xianling, Ming Yan Population Research    2022, 46 (4): 27-39.   Abstract （1499）      PDF （10521KB）（309）       Knowledge map    Save Age structure is the most fundamental population structure, thus, assessing the accuracy of age reporting is an important prerequisite for census data usage. Using the data from population censuses and sample surveys, this paper employs the methods of comparing with other data sources, cohort survival ratio, modified Whipple index, and Sign Test to investigate the accuracy of age data in the 7th population census. The number of annual births estimated from population aged 0-9 in the 7th census and that releaseal by the National Bureau of Statistics are quite close, which preliminarily suggests that there is no obvious underreporting in the lowage group of the 7th census. The cohort survival ratios abnormally fluctuate in the age group of 10-40, reflecting the underreporting in the lowage group, the overreporting in youth group, and the larger overreporting of women of childbearing age than males in the 6th census. In addition, this study adopts the modified Whipple index and Sign Test method to examine the accuracy of age reporting in the 7th census. The results show that the 7th census age data is of high quality without obvious age heaping at the national level. Related Articles | Metrics

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Human Capital Dividend and Its Spatial Effects in China Dai Qiongyao, Liu Jiaqiang, Tang Daisheng Population Research    2021, 45 (5): 33-48.   Abstract （697）      PDF （1995KB）（308）       Knowledge map    Save The effect of population size advantage on economic growth has gradually weakened in China, while human capital dividend starts to be a new engine for China's economic growth. This paper discusses human capital dividend and its spatial effects on China's economic growth. The results show that human capital contributes more to regional economic growth than population size. One city's health human capital has a significant “competitive effect” on its neighbors' economic growth, while educational human capital shows a “spillover effect”. Both types of human capital show spatial heterogeneity. Moreover, with a longer distance between two cities, the competitive effect and the spillover effect is stronger for the health and educational human capital, respectively. However, their marginal effects diminish, supporting the hypothesis of “distance attenuation”. This paper proposes that, by improving national educational capital and health capital, we can achieve a shift in economic growth from a reliance on the population size to human capital dividend. We should implement different spatial investment strategies for educational capital and health capital. Related Articles | Metrics

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Who Needs More Fertility Policy Support?Fertility Decline from the Perspective of Role Conflict and Optimization of Occupational Structure Yang Hui Population Research    2023, 47 (4): 20-34.   Abstract （396）      PDF （13156KB）（303）       Knowledge map    Save Using data from national population censuses and the 3rd survey on Chinese women's social status, this study systemically analyzes the relationship between womens number of live births by occupation from 2000 to 2020 and the optimization of their occupation structure. Occupationspecific analysis shows an increase in women's number of live births while a decrease in overall trend. This seeming conflict is resulted from the continuous optimization of female occupation structure throughout China's urbanization, industrialization, and modernization. Further, the increase in the number of live births differs across occupation categories. Female specialists, technicians, and clerical personnel have had the fewest number of live births and suffered the most from work-family conflicts. Future policies should provide more support to them to satisfy their needs for giving birth Related Articles | Metrics

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Macrolevel Social Factors and Ideal Number of Children in China#br# Yu Jia, Zhou Yang, Xie Yu Population Research    2021, 45 (6): 45-61.   Abstract （979）      PDF （13799KB）（302）       Knowledge map    Save Reflecting collective norms towards childbearing at the societal level, the ideal number of children helps us project a society’s long  term fertility trend. Comparing China and other selected countries, our study shows that the average ideal number of children among women aged 18 to 49 is much lower in China than in other countries. We also observe relatively high one child and low 3 or more children ideals in China. Capitalizing on data from China Family Panel Studies, prefectural yearbooks, and digital map, we examine the effects of contextual factors on the ideal number of children in China. Results show that higher economic development level, higher income inequality level, lower total fertility rate, and higher educational competition level all lead to smaller ideal number of children. A mediation analysis reveals that contextual fertility level and educational pressure are important in shaping Chinese people’s ideal number of children. Our study suggests that fertility attitudes should be understood by taking historical and cultural contexts into account. Related Articles | Metrics

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Exploration and Practice of China's Population Development by the Communist Party of China Wang Peian Population Research    2021, 45 (5): 3-9.   Abstract （810）      PDF （359KB）（300）       Knowledge map    Save The population thinking and practice of the Communist Party of China (CPC) is a crucial part of the history of the CPC, the history of New China, the history of reform and opening-up, and the history of socialism development. Among the thinking and practice, the implementation of family planning is a major strategic decision based on the nation's fundamental realities with large population and relatively insufficient resources. It is also an important chapter of the one hundred year of glorious history of the CPC. In order to understand and grasp China's population situation in the new period with the significant changes of population development and the gradual adjustment and improvement of the fertility policy, especially the implementation of the threechild policy and its supporting measures, we should especially attach great importance to the research of population development strategies, strengthen the research on fertility patterns and related influencing factors under the new social and economic environment, enhance the research on national strategies for positive response to population ageing, increase the research on population migration and social integration, consolidate the research on profound impact of scientific and technological progress on population development, and reinforce the study on connotation and realization of the basic state policy of family planning in the new era. Related Articles | Metrics

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Will Internet Use Affect Fertility Desire？ Qiu Leiju, Feng Yiqiang, Shi Yupeng, Sun Baowen Population Research    2022, 46 (3): 3-15.   Abstract （1643）      PDF （11976KB）（299）       Knowledge map    Save Using data from the China Family Panel Studies and the matched urban data and Baidu search index, this paper examines the effects of internet use on fertility desire as well as its underlying mechanisms. After controlling for other influencing factors and endogenous issues, the results show that residents who use the internet have about 10.5% lower fertility desire than nonusers, especially for internet users who live in economically developed cities, with low education and low income. It is further identified that negative information mechanism, utility substitution mechanism, and marital satisfaction mechanism are the ways through which internet use reduces fertility desire. In addition, internet use also influences the actual fertility behavior and weakens the effect of the universal twochild policy. Our study provides a new perspective for understanding the low fertility problem. Related Articles | Metrics

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Forecasting the Population Size of the Disabled Older People and Their Care Time Needs#br# Zhang Yuan, Wang Wei Population Research    2021, 45 (6): 110-125.   Abstract （1320）      PDF （14673KB）（293）       Knowledge map    Save China's disabled and semi-disabled elderly population has grown rapidly and its distribution between urban and rural areas is uneven. Utilizing the 2011 and 2014 CLHLS data, this paper introduces the measurement of transition intensity to construct the health state transition probability matrix, and predict the population size of disabled elderly and the care time needs by urban and rural areas. The main conclusions are: (1) The probability of urban and rural older people with moderate and severe disability will increase with age and deterioration of initial health. (2) In 2050, the population of moderately and severely disabled aged 65 and above will reach over 83 million, which is about 3 times that in 2020. The ratio of the number of moderately disabled older people aged 65 to 74 in urban over rural areas has increased from 2.04 in 2020 to 7.77 in 2050. 2020-2040, the number of moderately and severely disabled older people aged 75 to 84 in rural areas will always be higher than that in urban areas. In 2020, the ratio of the number of moderately and severely disabled older people aged 65 to 74 in rural over urban areas will reach peaks of 1.74 and 2.38 respectively. (3) The average duration time of moderate disability of older people aged 65 to 74 in urban areas is 1.34 times that in rural areas, and the average duration time of the severe disability of older people in the same age group is 1.28 times that in urban areas. Related Articles | Metrics

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A Comparison of Two Kinds of Negative Population Growth: Connotation, Demographic Characteristics, and Economic Impacts Tao Tao, Jin Guangzhao, Guo Yalong Population Research    2021, 45 (6): 14-28.   Abstract （1120）      PDF （14991KB）（292）       Knowledge map    Save Different from the negative population growth caused by exogenous events in the past, the endogenous negative population growth driven by prolonged life expectancy and long term low fertility will become a new important population phenomenon in the future. Demographically speaking, compared with exogenous negative population growth, the endogenous one tends to accumulate long term negative population growth momentum. Once it happens, it lasts longer, is accompanied by population ageing, and is more difficult to convert back to positive growth. For the economic impacts, both of these two kinds of negative population growth have aggregate effect, but the endogenous negative population growth shows a clearer structural effect, a more stable expectation effect, and a long-swing effect which differs from the exogenous one. The looming endogenous negative population growth is not necessarily negative, but may have positive effects. The focus is how to seize the response window period and give full play to the positive effects on the basis of eliminating the negative effects of negative population growth. Related Articles | Metrics

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The New Situation of Labor Force Change in China Based on the 7th Population Census Data Tong Yufen, Liu Zhili, Gong Qiannan Population Research    2021, 45 (3): 65-74.   Abstract （1072）      PDF （773KB）（292）       Knowledge map    Save Based on the data of the 7th Population Census in China, this paper examines the latest situation of the labor force population, including the trends of size and proportion, the ageing of the structure, the spatial agglomeration and the quality of the labor force, analyzes the challenges for the labor market, and discusses policy implications. Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impact of Delayed Childbearing on Children's Health Development in Post-transitional China: Evidence from the CFPS2010-2020 Niu Jianlin Population Research    2023, 47 (5): 3-17.   Abstract （465）      PDF （1286KB）（290）       Knowledge map    Save Delayed childbearing has been found detrimental to children's health. While post-transitional China is observing a substantial increase of childbearing postponement, this study aims to investigate health impact of this trend on the next generation. Using data from the 2010-2020 China Family Panel Studies（CFPS）, this study examines the multidimensional health differences related to both maternal and paternal ages in post-transitional China. The results show that delayed childbearing contributes negatively to children's birth weight, their physical development in childhood, and general health in adolescence. These health impacts operate partly through congenital factors, as manifested in the greater risk of low birth weight, and partly via the related family environments and resources. These findings highlight the need to incorporate health considerations into decisions about childbearing, both for health promotion and for sustained population development.  Related Articles | Metrics

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The Mechanisms of House Prices on Family's Fertility Decision-making：Empirical Analysis Based on CFPS Data Zhang Fen, Fang Yingfeng, Peng Haochen Population Research    2023, 47 (2): 96-111.   Abstract （573）      PDF （13770KB）（281）       Knowledge map    Save In the context of rising housing prices and declining fertility rates in the past few years in China, the article first builds a model to explain the relationship between housing prices and family fertility decisions from a theoretical perspective. Then, from an empirical point of view, based on the panel data from 2010-2018 China Family Panel Studies, it is found that the urban housing prices in the counties where the family is located have a significant negative impact on their current fertility decision. Such impact also differentiates among sub-groups. Moreover, after the Chinese government carrying out the “two-child” policy, the negative impact becomes even stronger than before. In terms of the mechanism, housing prices have a crowding-out effect on fertility, and it can also affect fertility through reducing women's self-identity and increasing the cost of raising children. In addition, high housing prices have an inhibitory effect on marriage, which further exacerbates the negative impact on the fertility rate. Related Articles | Metrics