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Dynamic Trend of China's Population Ageing and New Characteristics of the Elderly Yang Hanmo Population Research    2022, 46 (5): 104-116.   Abstract （4204）      PDF （1246KB）（2928）       Knowledge map    Save Based on the 7th National Population Census conducted in 2020 and previous censuses,this study analyzes the current situation and the dynamic trend of China's population ageing. This study first describes the health status, sources of livelihood, living arrangement, and marital status of the older population in general, and summarizes the characteristics of China's population ageing: The speed and depth of China's ageing process have been further strengthened, and the proportion of the elderly population in rural areas becomes higher. From 2010 to 2020, the self-assessed health status of the older people has improved, yet the gap between urban and rural areas is still significant; the proportion of widowed persons among the older people has declined, and the relative proportion of widowed persons is higher in rural areas and among women than their counterparts; the elderly security system is further improved, and the older people are more economically independent with less economic pressure; the phenomenon of “empty nest” is common among rural older people; and those who are unhealthy or living alone are more likely to rely on assistance from the government. Related Articles | Metrics

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Postponement of Marriage and Childbearing in China during 1990-2020: Trends and Characteristics Zhang Xianling, Sheng Yi'nan Population Research    2023, 47 (5): 88-101.   Abstract （697）      PDF （1695KB）（722）       Knowledge map    Save Using the census and sampling survey data between 1990 and 2020, this study examines the postponement of marriage and childbearing in China. The results show a persistent increase in the mean age at first marriage in urban and rural China. However, the postponement of the first marriage started earlier in urban areas than rural areas during 2000-2010. The postponement of first marriage in rural areas accelerated during 2010-2020. This led to a widening and then narrowing trend of the urban-rural gap. Age at first marriage differs across educational attainment; women and men with higher education significantly postpone their first marriage. Men with higher education also show a lower likelihood of staying unmarried for life. The curve of age-specific fertility rate for women at childbearing age has shifted downwards to the right, and the peak childbearing age of urban women has shifted more than that of rural women. The mean age at childbearing has been increasing, with a more rapid speed in 2000-2010 and then a slower one in 2010-2020. The mean age at childbearing of each parity has been postponed, especially for the first and second births. Women with different educational levels all postpone childbearing, and those with higher education levels show larger postponement. Related Articles | Metrics

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Empty-nest Elderly Households in China: Trends and Patterns Tao Tao, Jin Guangzhao, Guo Yalong Population Research    2023, 47 (1): 58-71.   Abstract （2450）      PDF （12724KB）（668）       Knowledge map    Save Drawing upon data from 2000, 2010 and 2020 population censuses, this study examines trends and patterns of the empty-nest elderly households in China. The level of empty-nest elderly households has been increasing both in urban and rural areas over the last 20 years, and has increased in all China's provinces over the past decade. In 2020, empty-nest elderly population is estimated approximately to be 0.15 billion, of which 7.7 million are the oldest old living alone. The oldest old and female elderly are more likely to live alone. Nearly 70% of the living-alone elderly are widowed, and nearly 10% are still unmarried. Empty-nest elderly live mainly on family support, social security, and labor income. Their health conditions are generally good, but a small proportion are disabled. Few living-alone elderly have caregivers to provide care for them, and even for those disabled only 19.86% receive such care. Policy implications are discussed. Related Articles | Metrics

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Where Do the Low skilled Laborers Go in the Era of “Machine Substitution”?A Study Based on China Labor force Dynamic Survey Data Qi Jianhong, Fu Jingjing Population Research    2022, 46 (4): 114-128.   Abstract （1055）      PDF （16422KB）（629）       Knowledge map    Save This study investigates the impact and mechanism of robots on the inter-city outflow of low-skilled laborers based on the China Labor-force Dynamic Survey and customs data. The results show that robots reduce the number of jobs in the secondary industry and replace the low-skilled laborers, increasing the probability of low-skilled workers' outflow across cities. In terms of industry transfer, robots lead to a higher probability of low-skilled laborers under 45 years old flowing into the service industry and low-skilled laborers above 45 years old flowing into primary industry. In terms of city transfer, the probability of low-skilled laborers flowing into the city's service industry and first-tier city's service industry has increased due to robots. In terms of inter-region movement, more educated low-skilled laborers tend to move to East China, while less educated low-skilled laborers tend to move to the west regions. The results have important policy implications for formulating policy regarding robot industry and population movement. Related Articles | Metrics

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Motherhood Penalty on Chinese Women in Labor Market Yang Fan, He Yuchen Population Research    2022, 46 (5): 63-77.   Abstract （924）      PDF （1268KB）（576）       Knowledge map    Save Using China Family Panel Study ( CFPS) data from 2010 to 2018 and an event-study framework, we explore the impacts of children on the dynamic trajectory of female labor force participation and hours worked. The results show that the arrival of the first child creates a sudden and substantial decrease in the employment and monthly hours worked. The impacts sustain until the child is 4 years old. Within 0 - 3 years after the birth of the first child the employment and the monthly hours worked decreased significantly. Nevertheless, after 4 years beyond the birth of the first child, there is no statistical difference in the employment and monthly hours worked compared with the pre-birth stage. Compared with women, there is no significant impact of children on the labor supply for men.Meanwhile, we provide evidence that the motherhood penalties on labor supply are following the law of diminishing marginal cost. We end with the heterogeneity analyses which show that the college-educated and younger cohorts experience smaller labor supply declines. This study helps understand the magnitude and dynamic trajectory of motherhood penalties in China and provides illumination for the family policy to help women balance family and work and families realize their fertility intention from a perspective of international comparison. Related Articles | Metrics

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When Fertility Support Policies are Effective？ Gender Equality, the Combination of Fertility Support Policies, and the Rebound of Total Fertility Rate in 27 Countries Zhang Yang, Li Lingchun Population Research    2023, 47 (4): 3-19.   Abstract （944）      PDF （13910KB）（464）       Knowledge map    Save China has witnessed a low total fertility rate for decades; thus, it is imperative to build a fertility support policy system based on the experience of other lowfertility countries. Drawing on a constructed longitudinal dataset, we investigate the associations of different fertility support policy combinations with a fertility rebound and the moderating effects of gender equality on these associations. We find that policy combinations supporting the dualearners model are more conducive to fertility rebound, compared to those supporting the malebreadwinner model. Economic support policies have a stable positive relationship with the total fertility rate, while the effects of service and time support policies are contingent upon gender equality. Specifically, the effects of service and time support policies are more pronounced with higher levels of gender equality. These findings suggest that we need to consider the coordination and combination of different types of fertility policies, and rethink the value orientation and social background behind the policies, and promote a genderfriendly social environment. Related Articles | Metrics

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China's Low Fertility and Provincial Differences: Fertility Index-based Observation Song Jian, Hu Bo, Jiang Chunyun, Chen Wenqi Population Research    2023, 47 (5): 74-87.   Abstract （460）      PDF （1379KB）（437）       Knowledge map    Save Focusing on the phenomenon that childbearing-age people "do not want to give birth, ""dare not to give birth," and "are unable to give birth," we comprehensively consider the three dimensions of fertility—intention, conditions, and structure, build a fertility composite index according to the relevant theories of low fertility rate, observe and analyze the current situation of low fertility rate in China, and make inter-provincial comparisons. We find that the average national fertility composite index is 0.492. The fertility condition index is the lowest, reflecting the constraints on fertility caused by employment and income factors and lack of fertility support. The structural characteristics of the childbearing-age people are consistent in all provinces, while the fertility intention and fertility conditions are spatially heterogeneous. There is a positive association between fertility index and total fertility rate. With a 0.1 unit increase in fertility index, total fertility rate increases by 0.286 units. Improving fertility intention can help effectively increase the total fertility rate; however, the changes in fertility conditions and fertility structure have not been able to effectively promote the total fertility rate. It is thus necessary to establish, improve, and implement long-term fertility support in order to reshape the fertility intention and change the behavior of the population. Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impacts of Social Software Usage on Social Networks of Mid aged and Older Adults Xie Lili, Yang Lu, Hu Bo, Wang Fei Population Research    2022, 46 (5): 91-103.   Abstract （656）      PDF （1198KB）（398）       Knowledge map    Save Using data from a survey on the use of online social tools by mid-aged and older adults in 2021, this paper investigates the relationships between the variety, relationship types, and activity level of online communities, and social networks of mid-aged and older adults by using the structural equation modeling. The study found that the mid-aged and older adults had better relationships with their relatives and friends as the variety of online communities increased. Strong and sub-strong tie groups could promote family and friend networks, respectively, while sub-weak and weak tie groups could promote both types of networks. Moreover, the higher the activity in the online communities, the greater the promotion of their friend networks. Findings promote the understanding of changes in the social network in the internet era. Online communities break through the physical distance in the traditional differential mode of associations by enhancing family relations, strengthening and expanding friend relations horizontally, and helping restore interrupted friend relations vertically. The breadth and depth of the social network of mid-aged and older adults have been developed through online communities. Related Articles | Metrics

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Reassessment of China's Fertility Level:An Analysis of the 7th Population Census Data Zhai Zhenwu, Jin Guangzhao, Zhang Yiyang Population Research    2022, 46 (4): 3-13.   Abstract （1437）      PDF （9734KB）（358）       Knowledge map    Save The key to accurately assessing China's fertility level lies in high-quality data. The 7th population census has obtained data of very high quality mainly due to the newly added ID number registration and application of information technology, providing a good opportunity for reassessing China's fertility level. This study shows that the total fertility rate (TFR) of China maintained above 1.6 from 2006 to 2017, exceeded 1.7 in most of the years, but dropped sharply from 2017 to 2020. The TFR was fluctuating considerably, ranging from a low of just 1.3 in 2020 to a high of 1.89 in 2012 and 1.88 in 2017, with a 15-year average of 1.7. Fertility preferences, fertility policy adjustments, and COVID-19 had marked influence on fertility level. The average number of children ever born suggests that there is still potential for improvements in China's fertility level, and the key measure is to fully eliminate the emerging fertility inhibiting factors and build a fertility/family-friendly society to tap this potential. Related Articles | Metrics

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Family Changes in Contemporary China: Characteristics, Trends, and Prospects Ma Guoqing Population Research    2023, 47 (1): 43-57.   Abstract （2821）      PDF （14124KB）（350）       Knowledge map    Save Family change is an important perspective to unveil social changes in China. Drawing upon data from population censuses, this paper examines the characteristics and trends of Chinese family change over the past several decades, particularly after China's reform and opening-up, focusing on family size, family relationship, and family strategy. Chinese household size has been declining, and the family intergenerational structure has shifted to one generation households, with family types being diversified and dominated by nuclear families. Family relationships tend to become more equal and democratic, family production function is increasingly expanded, while family support function presents different characteristics between urban and rural areas. Under the changing urban-rural divide in China and globalization, the option of family strategies has been manifested in the active adjustment and adaptation of contemporary Chinese families in response to the rapid and complex social changes. While being dominated by nuclear and stem families, Chinese traditional family patterns would become increasingly diversified in the future. Related Articles | Metrics

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An Assessment of Lifetime Childlessness in China Based on the 7th Population Census Zhang Cuiling, Jiang Yu, Zhuang Yaer, Jiang Quanbao, Yu Dian, Liu Wenli Population Research    2023, 47 (3): 78-93.   Abstract （1155）      PDF （13276KB）（346）       Knowledge map    Save According to the 7th National Population Census of China, the estimated rate of childlessness for women aged 49 is 5.16% in 2020, lower than that reported in the European Union (19%) and in the United States (11%). The heterogeneity of childlessness in China is increasing, showing distinct differences regarding to period, cohort, education, place of residence, and regions. The childlessness level of women aged 49 with high levels of education, living in cities and regions with ultra-low fertility levels is much higher. Factors like the acceleration of urbanization, the continued popularization of higher education, and the ongoing trend of marriage and childbearing delay would further promote the rise of the childlessness level. Given China's low share of non-marital births and third births and above, the continuous rise of childlessness level would have a stronger negative impact on the newborn population and total fertility rates, thereby affecting China's ability to maintain the aimed suitable fertility level. The government should attach great importance to and address the issue in advance. Related Articles | Metrics

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Trends in Educational Assortative Marriages in China by Couple Hukou Status, 1960-2018: An Urban-Rural Integration Perspective Du Yongxiao, Dong Hao Population Research    2023, 47 (4): 98-113.   Abstract （725）      PDF （15063KB）（331）       Knowledge map    Save This study, from an urban-rural integration perspective, examines and compares trends in educational assortative marriages by couple's rural/non-rural hukou status. We use new methods, such as rank-rank correlation and Exchange Index, to analyze 81756 couples from nationally representative survey data (i.e., the 2003-2018 CGSS and 2010 CFPS). We find a substantial and persistent difference between rural and urban marriages. Couples who both have an urban hukou have more similar educational statuses than couples of whom either one or both have a rural hukou. This gap in homogamous tendency is mainly driven by highly educated couples. Moreover, we find gender-asymmetrical hukou-status exchange patterns for rural-urban inter-marrying couples, whose relative advantages in hukou or educational status could not compensate each other. These new findings reveal the profound influence of unbalanced development between rural and urban regions, highlighting potential directions for future policies for better incorporating rural-urban integration with sustained population development. Related Articles | Metrics

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Satisfaction of Fertility Desires for Couples of Childbearing Age and the Effect of Family Characteristics: An Empirical Study Based on the Three dimension Fertility Perspective Song Jian, Chen Wenqi Population Research    2022, 46 (5): 3-18.   Abstract （725）      PDF （1217KB）（323）       Knowledge map    Save The deviation between fertility desires and behaviors is common among Chinese people of childbearing age. Little attention has been paid to the satisfaction of fertility desires from gender and time dimensions and its determinants. Based on data from the 2021 national sample survey conducted by the Center for Population and Development Studies of Renmin University of China, this paper analyzes the satisfaction of fertility desires and the effect of family characteristics from three dimensions. The results show that more than half of the couples of childbearing age want to have children but failed to meet their desired number; forty percent failed to satisfy the desired sex; more than eighty percent did not meet the desired time with a later age of childbearing than the desired timing. The socioeconomic status and fertility potential of family play an important role in satisfying the desired number for all the couples. The effect of family fertility culture is not significant. The couples with unsatisfied sex preference tend to have more children to fulfill it. It is suggested to make precise policies for different types of couples of childbearing age to help them meet their fertility desires. Related Articles | Metrics

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Negative Population Growth in China: Characteristics, Challenges, and Responses Zhai Zhenwu, Jin Guangzhao Population Research    2023, 47 (2): 11-20.   Abstract （1368）      PDF （9308KB）（318）       Knowledge map    Save China's negative population growth is an objective law of population development, with a unique transition process and development trend. In the future, long-term and rapid negative population growth may pose challenges to the economy. It is necessary to cope with negative population growth actively by establishing a fertility support policy system, improving population quality, optimizing the spatial layout of the population, raising per capita consumption, and enhancing labor productivity. Related Articles | Metrics

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Assessing Accuracy of Age Reporting in the 7th Population Census of China Zhang Xianling, Ming Yan Population Research    2022, 46 (4): 27-39.   Abstract （1499）      PDF （10521KB）（309）       Knowledge map    Save Age structure is the most fundamental population structure, thus, assessing the accuracy of age reporting is an important prerequisite for census data usage. Using the data from population censuses and sample surveys, this paper employs the methods of comparing with other data sources, cohort survival ratio, modified Whipple index, and Sign Test to investigate the accuracy of age data in the 7th population census. The number of annual births estimated from population aged 0-9 in the 7th census and that releaseal by the National Bureau of Statistics are quite close, which preliminarily suggests that there is no obvious underreporting in the lowage group of the 7th census. The cohort survival ratios abnormally fluctuate in the age group of 10-40, reflecting the underreporting in the lowage group, the overreporting in youth group, and the larger overreporting of women of childbearing age than males in the 6th census. In addition, this study adopts the modified Whipple index and Sign Test method to examine the accuracy of age reporting in the 7th census. The results show that the 7th census age data is of high quality without obvious age heaping at the national level. Related Articles | Metrics

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Who Needs More Fertility Policy Support?Fertility Decline from the Perspective of Role Conflict and Optimization of Occupational Structure Yang Hui Population Research    2023, 47 (4): 20-34.   Abstract （396）      PDF （13156KB）（303）       Knowledge map    Save Using data from national population censuses and the 3rd survey on Chinese women's social status, this study systemically analyzes the relationship between womens number of live births by occupation from 2000 to 2020 and the optimization of their occupation structure. Occupationspecific analysis shows an increase in women's number of live births while a decrease in overall trend. This seeming conflict is resulted from the continuous optimization of female occupation structure throughout China's urbanization, industrialization, and modernization. Further, the increase in the number of live births differs across occupation categories. Female specialists, technicians, and clerical personnel have had the fewest number of live births and suffered the most from work-family conflicts. Future policies should provide more support to them to satisfy their needs for giving birth Related Articles | Metrics

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Will Internet Use Affect Fertility Desire？ Qiu Leiju, Feng Yiqiang, Shi Yupeng, Sun Baowen Population Research    2022, 46 (3): 3-15.   Abstract （1643）      PDF （11976KB）（299）       Knowledge map    Save Using data from the China Family Panel Studies and the matched urban data and Baidu search index, this paper examines the effects of internet use on fertility desire as well as its underlying mechanisms. After controlling for other influencing factors and endogenous issues, the results show that residents who use the internet have about 10.5% lower fertility desire than nonusers, especially for internet users who live in economically developed cities, with low education and low income. It is further identified that negative information mechanism, utility substitution mechanism, and marital satisfaction mechanism are the ways through which internet use reduces fertility desire. In addition, internet use also influences the actual fertility behavior and weakens the effect of the universal twochild policy. Our study provides a new perspective for understanding the low fertility problem. Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impact of Delayed Childbearing on Children's Health Development in Post-transitional China: Evidence from the CFPS2010-2020 Niu Jianlin Population Research    2023, 47 (5): 3-17.   Abstract （465）      PDF （1286KB）（290）       Knowledge map    Save Delayed childbearing has been found detrimental to children's health. While post-transitional China is observing a substantial increase of childbearing postponement, this study aims to investigate health impact of this trend on the next generation. Using data from the 2010-2020 China Family Panel Studies（CFPS）, this study examines the multidimensional health differences related to both maternal and paternal ages in post-transitional China. The results show that delayed childbearing contributes negatively to children's birth weight, their physical development in childhood, and general health in adolescence. These health impacts operate partly through congenital factors, as manifested in the greater risk of low birth weight, and partly via the related family environments and resources. These findings highlight the need to incorporate health considerations into decisions about childbearing, both for health promotion and for sustained population development.  Related Articles | Metrics

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The Mechanisms of House Prices on Family's Fertility Decision-making：Empirical Analysis Based on CFPS Data Zhang Fen, Fang Yingfeng, Peng Haochen Population Research    2023, 47 (2): 96-111.   Abstract （573）      PDF （13770KB）（281）       Knowledge map    Save In the context of rising housing prices and declining fertility rates in the past few years in China, the article first builds a model to explain the relationship between housing prices and family fertility decisions from a theoretical perspective. Then, from an empirical point of view, based on the panel data from 2010-2018 China Family Panel Studies, it is found that the urban housing prices in the counties where the family is located have a significant negative impact on their current fertility decision. Such impact also differentiates among sub-groups. Moreover, after the Chinese government carrying out the “two-child” policy, the negative impact becomes even stronger than before. In terms of the mechanism, housing prices have a crowding-out effect on fertility, and it can also affect fertility through reducing women's self-identity and increasing the cost of raising children. In addition, high housing prices have an inhibitory effect on marriage, which further exacerbates the negative impact on the fertility rate. Related Articles | Metrics

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Why Does Internet Use Affect Fertility Intentions？ Chen Weimin, Wan Jiale, Li Chaowei Population Research    2022, 46 (3): 16-29.   Abstract （1343）      PDF （12559KB）（278）       Knowledge map    Save Based on CGSS2017 data, this paper examines the effects of surfing the internet on fertility intentions. The results show that surfing the internet will reduce individuals fertility intentions. The effects on the intended number of children are greater than that on whether to have children. There are two mechanisms for these effects. One is increasing anxiety about childbirth and thus changing the individuals attitudes towards giving birth. The other is raising personal consumption which squeezes the economic budget for childbearing and childrearing. The effects of internet use on fertility intentions vary across different purposes for getting online. Using the internet for study, work or social contact has no significant effects on individuals fertility intentions, while using the internet for shopping or entertainment significantly reduces fertility intentions. Other conventional media usage, such as newspapers, magazines, television, and mobile phone message has no significant influence. To prevent the negative impact of internet usage on fertility intentions, it is necessary to strengthen the supervision of network information, reasonably guide online consumption, and help individuals to establish a positive attitude towards fertility and consumption. Related Articles | Metrics

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Does Postponing Retirement Inhibit Fertility?An Intergenerational Parenting Perspective Chen Youhua, Cui Xiaodong, Zhao Tong Population Research    2022, 46 (5): 19-32.   Abstract （624）      PDF （1228KB）（276）       Knowledge map    Save China has a strong intergenerational parenting culture, but there is no consensus on whether delaying retirement will inhibit fertility by crowding out intergenerational parenting time. By constructing an intertemporal iterative model of endogenous fertility, intergenerational parenting and pension burden related to delayed retirement are introduced to analyze and simulate the sequential game process of retirement age and fertility under the goal of maximizing individual utility. Under the pay-asyou-go system, retirement age and fertility have an inverted U-shaped relationship; under the fund accumulation system, there is a monotonically increasing relationship. Fertility supporting measures can delay the inflection point of the retirement age, thereby expanding the space for the parallel alignment of the two policy goals of delaying retirement and encouraging fertility, and increasing fertility when the peak is reached, but will not change the relationship between the two. Thus, it is the appropriate time now to introduce a delayed retirement policy, which not only has less negative impact on fertility, but also improves individual utility, but should adopt a gradual postponement approach and pay careful attention to its possible negative effects. Related Articles | Metrics

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Changing Housing Conditions in China Sun Qing Population Research    2022, 46 (5): 117-128.   Abstract （900）      PDF （1159KB）（273）       Knowledge map    Save Data from the 7th National Population Census suggest that housing conditions in China have continued to improve in the past decade. The per capita housing area of urban residents has reached the standard of living of a comprehensive well-off society. The household residential pattern,used to be dominated by two-generation households, has now featured by a dichotomy between onegeneration households and multi-generation households, and the proportion of buying commercial houses and renting other houses has increased significantly. The housing conditions in China's western and northeastern regions have both greatly improved, and the regional disparity has narrowed. However,the urban-rural gap in housing conditions has been changing that the gap in housing facilities narrowing, while the gap in per capita housing area widening. While differentials in housing sources exist,differences by occupation in urban areas tend to narrow. Related Articles | Metrics

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The Population Decline in China: A Global Perspective Zheng Zhenzhen Population Research    2023, 47 (2): 3-10.   Abstract （1051）      PDF （7200KB）（264）       Knowledge map    Save The world has experienced population growth and fertility decline for nearly a century and has entered an era of deceleration of growth. China’s population change is consistent with the global trend, but the time length of the whole process has been significantly compressed. While the population size has peaked, China has quickly become an ageing society. Nevertheless, low fertility, stagnation or negative growth, and population ageing are not unique to China. In the 21st century, both China and the world need to face these challenges. China must adapt to these demographic changes and actively respond to the challenges as soon as possible. Related Articles | Metrics

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He is Healthier? The Effects of the Parity-employment Life Course Trajectory on the Health of Mid-aged and Older Adults in China Zhao Menghan, Gao Weijie Population Research    2023, 47 (5): 18-31.   Abstract （335）      PDF （2725KB）（261）       Knowledge map    Save China has recently implemented strategies of actively addressing population ageing and healthy China. In this context, understanding the health disparities among mid-aged and older adults from the life course perspective improves lifelong health service policies. Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study（CHARLS）and sequence analysis, this study constructs parity-employment trajectories. Seven trajectories are identified for both men and women, as well as a male-specific trajectory of remaining unmarried and childless while working, and a female-specific trajectory of giving birth to one child and leaving the workforce early. Among younger birth cohorts, more individuals have only one or two children, while fewer have three or more children. Moreover, a higher proportion of women leaving the workforce early is found among younger cohorts. Further analysis shows that an increase in the number of births has a negative effect on the health of mid-aged and older women while leaving the workforce early is detrimental to the health of both men and women. Related Articles | Metrics

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The Influence of Living Conditions on Depression of the Older People Hou Jianming, Zhang Peidong Population Research    2023, 47 (4): 67-81.   Abstract （368）      PDF （12006KB）（254）       Knowledge map    Save With the continuous increase in the scale and proportion of the older population, the situation of population aging is becoming increasingly severe, and older people's depression is turning to be prominent. In the context of the implementation of the national strategy to address the problem of population ageing, this paper explores the influence of housing conditions on older people's depression based on the 2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study Data (CHARLS2018). Through using the two-stage least square regression, quantile regression, and threshold regression models, our results show that good living conditions can significantly alleviate older people's depression after effectively addressing the endogenous problem of the model, and the conclusion is robust. The improvement effect of living conditions is more pronounced as the degree of older people's depression increases. Furthermore, the influence of living conditions on older people's depression differs significantly among different age groups. Compared to individuals aged 60-64, the coefficient is higher for the people aged over 64. Enhancing the quality and ageing suitability of older people's housing is an effective approach to alleviate their depression. Related Articles | Metrics

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Identifying the Mystery of Chinas Declining Labor Participation Rate among Workingage Population: Informal Care or “Being NEETs”? Liu Dayu, Zhao Hengyuan, Xu Bin Population Research    2022, 46 (3): 102-116.   Abstract （1812）      PDF （13498KB）（248）       Knowledge map    Save This paper conducts an empirical analysis using the data of CFPS2016 to test the causes for the decline of employment rate. The results show that “Being NEETs” prevents workingage population from participating in work, while informal care promotes labor participation. According to marginal probability calculation, “Being NEETs” has a stronger negative impact. The negative impact imposed by the NEETs, which indicates a race to the bottom trend, is more serious in rural areas, suggesting that “Being NEETs” is no longer a privilege among rich families. People who are unmarried and without home loan are more vulnerable to losing their employment willingness. On the one hand, our results suggest that there is indeed a lack of social responsibility among the current workingage population. On the other hand, the phenomenon of forcedly “Being NEETs” among lowemployment ability population is rapidly expanding. Therefore, paying more attention to those peoples education and career development is the core task of breaking through the current dilemma of low employment rate. Related Articles | Metrics

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High-quality Population Development, New Human Capital, and High-quality Employment Yu Xiao, Wang Qihui Population Research    2023, 47 (5): 59-73.   Abstract （320）      PDF （1282KB）（234）       Knowledge map    Save The overall quality—scientific and cultural quality, health quality, and ideological and moral quality—is the key to high-quality population development. Based on the three-level theory of personality, this paper constructs a comprehensive analysis framework of non-cognitive ability and verifies the impact of non-cognitive ability, such as ideological and moral quality and personality quality, on high-quality employment of workers from the perspective of the new human capital theory. Main conclusions: Workers with higher scores in emotional stability, conscientiousness, and openness personality traits will achieve greater external career success, while those with higher scores in conscientiousness, extroversion, agreeableness, and openness will experience higher internal career achievement. A sense of successful value helps to enhance a worker's external and internal career accomplishments. Workers with higher scores in industrious experience will obtain higher internal career achievement. Non-cognitive ability maximizes personal utility through career matching, and also affects workers' career achievements by increasing occupational investment and accumulating social capital. Related Articles | Metrics

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Marriage Delay in China：Trends and Patterns Chen Wei, Zhang Fengfei Population Research    2022, 46 (4): 14-26.   Abstract （843）      PDF （10673KB）（230）       Knowledge map    Save The 7th Population Census of China in 2020 provides high quality data for analyzing new developments and characteristics of China's population. Capitalizing on data from China's population censuses and sample surveys, this paper analyzes trends and patterns of marriage delay in China from 1990 to 2020. Marriage delay, which has been taking place across all population groups, has accelerated in the recent decade, but the proportion staying lifetime single is still very low. Comparing with the Western countries, China has a different path to postpone marriage. Marriage delay was initiated under lower level of development in China. We use a framework of determinants of marriage by Dixon to explain marriage delay in the Chinese context. Obstacles are being intensified to marriage desirability, feasibility and availability, and marriage delay will continue, but the universal marriage pattern will not change in the short run. It is also important to recognize the heterogeneity of marriage delay, males in rural China are most likely to be leftover to become lifetime single. Related Articles | Metrics

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“Getting Old before Getting Rich” in China: A Re-examination Lin Bao Population Research    2023, 47 (3): 3-16.   Abstract （678）      PDF （12760KB）（225）       Knowledge map    Save This article systematically reviews various debates on the judgment of “getting old before getting rich” and puts forward a more intuitive criterion: the index of consistency between population ageing and development level. According to this criterion, all countries and regions can be divided into three types: getting old before getting rich, basic coordination between being “old” and being “rich”, and getting rich before getting old. Based on the data of World Population Prospects 2022 and Human Development Report 2021/2022, we assess the relationship between being “old” and being “rich” in China since 1990 and find that China has been in the state of “getting old before getting rich” since 1990, but this situation has been changing in recent years. Using per capita national income as a representation of being “rich” shows that China is moving out of the state of “getting old before getting rich” and entering the state of basic coordination between being “old” and being “rich”. Using the human development index as a representation of being “rich” indicates that China is at the point of transition between the two states. Related Articles | Metrics

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Understanding High-quality Population Development:Theoretical Implications, Supporting Factors, and Practical Paths Wang Xiaofeng, Liu Huawei Population Research    2023, 47 (5): 46-58.   Abstract （453）      PDF （1254KB）（220）       Knowledge map    Save The declining birth rates, population ageing, and regional population differentiation urgently require China to optimize its population development strategy, high-quality population development becomes the main guideline. The guideline is derived from new development philosophy, driven by reform and innovation, centered around the high-quality life of the people, aimed at the comprehensive development of individuals and common prosperity of all people, serving the strategy of national rejuvenation. China has the economic advantages of wealth accumulation and high-quality economic development, talent advantages due to the comprehensive education system and the strategy for strengthening the country with talent, advantages in factor aggregation through new-type urbanization and urban agglomeration construction, the institutional advantage of the leadership of the CPC, and the cultural advantages of people-oriented and filial piety values. To make the most of these advantages, China should establish a comprehensive and integrated policy system for high-quality population development that covers fields such as science, education, culture and health, support for childbirth, labor employment, population ageing, and population security. Related Articles | Metrics

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Urban-Rural Differences and Trends in Healthy Ageing of Chinese Elderly: An Analysis Based on the Life Course and Health Equity Perspective Mu Yingtan, Long Fei, Yuan Xin Population Research    2023, 47 (4): 82-97.   Abstract （361）      PDF （14353KB）（219）       Knowledge map    Save Using data from CLHLS 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014 and 2018, this paper constructs a healthy ageing index based on multi-dimensional indicators to portray the age trajectory of healthy ageing of Chinese older adults. From the perspective of life course and health equity, this study analyzes the urban-rural differences and trends in the age trajectory of healthy ageing. The results indicate that the healthy ageing level of urban older adults is significantly better than that of rural older adults, mainly due to the urban advantages in childhood family background, socioeconomic status in adulthood, and institutional support. The urban-rural difference in healthy ageing weakens as age increases, showing a “convergence effect”. This difference has also narrowed across cohorts, mainly because the healthy ageing level of the younger cohorts in urban areas has declined substantially compared to older cohorts. This study discusses policy implications in improving the healthy ageing index system, strengthening dynamic monitoring, and focusing on the effectiveness of healthy ageing intervention policies from the perspective of life course and health equity. Related Articles | Metrics

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Re-examining the Old-age Dependency Ratio and Ageing Population in China Dai Zhixin, Du Peng, Dong Junhan Population Research    2023, 47 (3): 94-107.   Abstract （534）      PDF （10645KB）（215）       Knowledge map    Save Using data from the 7th National Census of China and the United Nations' “World Population Prospects 2022”, this study analyzes the trend of China's population ageing. The findings reveal that the Chinese population is ageing rapidly. The ageing process will accelerate in the future, moving towards moderate and severe ageing. Consequently, the burden of old-age care will continuously increase. Meanwhile, the health and educational levels of the older population will also improve. In the context of continuous improvement of population quality, we take health status and educational levels into account when estimating the old-age dependency ratio. By replacing the population count with the total human resources, the revised old-age dependency ratio is lower than the traditional one, and its rate of increase is slower. This implies that the burden of old-age care for the working-age population in the future may not grow as rapidly as previously expected. With socioeconomic development and medical and health conditions improvements, population ageing needs to be measured with more comprehensive and appropriate indicators. This will help clarify the process of population ageing in China and actively respond to population ageing. Related Articles | Metrics

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Amplification and Reduction: The Hidden Facts in China's Ageing Population and the Implications for Ageing Measurement and Theory Chen Youhua, Sun Yongjian Population Research    2023, 47 (1): 3-22.   Abstract （1009）      PDF （17801KB）（214）       Knowledge map    Save Ageing measurement and manipulation is the foundation of ageing research. Due to the failure of the analytical power of traditional indicators or theories, there are many hidden facts in China’s current ageing problem. The traditional age division standard will overstate the proportion of working-age population, reducing the dependency ratio of the elderly. Registered residence index will over-evaluate the ageing of the urban population and reduce that of the rural population. In the context of substantial migration, the nominal family structure will overrate the old-age supporting function of family, reducing the burden on the government. Healthy life expectancy will magnify the achievement of healthy ageing, reducing the crisis of unhealthy ageing. The traditional age standard will overestimate the burden of providing care for the elderly, reducing the role of the elderly themselves. It is important to reflect the traditional ageing indicators and their reliability and validity, and to explore new indicators to update the ageing research. Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impact of Childcare Services on Female Labor Participation and Economic Output Qu Yue, Cheng Jie, Li Bingbing Population Research    2022, 46 (5): 33-47.   Abstract （478）      PDF （1181KB）（211）       Knowledge map    Save Early childhood education and care (ECEC) hinders women's labor market participation and career development, causing potential economic losses. The socialization of childcare services maybe a viable way to release female labor force. This article uses the national population and family dynamic monitoring survey data to examine the relationship between childcare burden, childcare behavior and women's performance in the labor market, explore the impact of childcare services on women's employment and income, and estimate the extent to which the childcare service system can promote female labor participation, which in turn lead to income improvement and economic growth. The results show that the childcare burden has significantly reduced the labor participation rate and income level of women. The socialization of childcare services can increase the labor participation rate of women by 2-3 percentage points, and the released labor supply and economic output account for 4-7 percent of the current total economic output of women. The comprehensive construction of the childcare service system for children aged 0-3 is an effective measure to promote gender equality and economic development, and an important policy to enhance human capital, promote labor participation, and actively respond to population ageing. Related Articles | Metrics

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Influence of Climate Factors on Mortality Risk of Older Adults in China Fan Xiying, Li Jingjing Population Research    2023, 47 (5): 115-128.   Abstract （252）      PDF （1263KB）（209）       Knowledge map    Save Older adults have higher mortality risk during climate change. Using data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) and the China Meteorological Yearbook, this study employs the Cox proportional hazards model to test the impacts of climate factors and individual socioeconomic characteristics on older adults' mortality risk. The research results indicate that changes in climate factors lead to changes in older adults' mortality risk. Extreme high and low temperatures have a significant negative impact on the mortality risk. Its interaction terms with other climate factors, such as air pressure and humidity, are also significant. Unmarried rural older men have a higher mortality level, while economically advanced older people typically exhibit lower risk. Social security plays an interference or reinforcement interactive role in the impact of different climate factors on the mortality risk of older adults, which can effectively improve their climate adaptability. Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impact of Population Spatial Agglomeration on the Economic Growth of Urban Agglomerations in China: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis Based on 19 Urban Agglomerations Tong Yufen, Yang Yanfei, Han Jiabin Population Research    2023, 47 (3): 121-128.   Abstract （446）      PDF （10744KB）（205）       Knowledge map    Save Population spatial agglomeration is the basis for the economic growth of urban agglomerations in China. A dynamic panel regression model is established on the basis of the theoretical derivation of the relationship between population spatial agglomeration and economic growth in urban agglomerations. The study has three major findings. (1) The spatial concentration of population in urban agglomerations in China has a significant impact on the economic growth of urban agglomerations. (2) The effect of population agglomeration on economic growth in urban agglomerations is a non-linear “inverted U-shaped” relationship. At the initial stage of population agglomeration, the population agglomeration to the core cities within urban agglomerations is conducive to improving the economic efficiency of urban agglomerations, and after the population agglomeration reaches a certain level, the economic efficiency will be weakened. (3) Industrial structure optimization and technological progress are useful for the economic growth of urban agglomerations. Capitalizing on the urban agglomeration dividend, it is important to reduce the negative externalities of excessive spatial concentration of population in urban agglomerations, thus promoting high-quality development of urban agglomerations. Related Articles | Metrics

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Trends in the Size and Structure of Disabled Older Adults in Rural China Han Runlin, Han Xiaojing, Zhang Lilong, Lu Xiaoli Population Research    2023, 47 (2): 63-77.   Abstract （862）      PDF （11368KB）（204）       Knowledge map    Save This research projects the population size, structure and disability rate of rural older adults based on the six waves of Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey data from 2002 to 2018 and the Seventh National Census data. The result shows that the population size and the proportion of rural people aged 65 and above will increase from 90.35 million and 17.72% in 2020 to 124.38 million and 33.14% in 2035. The ADL disability rate of rural older adults will drop from 5.76% in 2020 to 4.92% in 2035, due to the decline of age-specific disability risk and the ageing population structure. Men's and women's disability rates will drop from 4.92% and 6.55% to 3.79% and 5.87%, respectively. The rural elderly population with disabilties is showing a trend towards severe disability and ageing. The decline in the total disability rate is mainly caused by the rapid decline in the mild disability rate, which was brought about by the reduction in the risk of age-specific disability. The moderate disability rate declined slightly and the severe disability rate continued to rise. The rate of moderate and severe disability are both around 4%. The study provides reliable data for the improvement of rural older care service capabilities and the promotion of long-term care insurance coverage to rural residents. Related Articles | Metrics

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The Path to Modernization of A Huge Population Yuan Xin Population Research    2022, 46 (6): 3-9.   Abstract （1256）      PDF （5813KB）（201）       Knowledge map    Save Related Articles | Metrics

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Multidimensional Poverty of Chinese Older Adults and Its Changes between 2005 and 2018 Zhang Wenjuan, Fu Min Population Research    2022, 46 (4): 55-68.   Abstract （923）      PDF （12469KB）（196）       Knowledge map    Save Employing data from CLHLS survey conducted between 2005 and 2018, this study analyzes Chinese older adults' multidimensional poverty status and changes using the AF method. This work also summarizes the multidimensional poverty pattern by utilizing the latent class analysis and estimates the impact of family and social support on different patterns of poverty. The results suggest that the older adults' multidimensional poverty index declines with an increasing contribution of health. Multidimensional poverty patterns include financialmental poverty, comprehensive health poverty and mobilityparticipation poverty. Older adults who are female, older, and have lower education show higher risks of falling into three kinds of poverty. Older adults who are rural, live alone, and lack family and social support are more likely to be in financialmental poverty. Comprehensive health poverty is more likely to be observed among older adults living with family and have relatively sufficient community health services and social pension security. Older adults with less family support, community services and social security are more likely to show mobilityparticipation poverty. Related Articles | Metrics

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From 6.57 Million to 376 Million: Remarks on Migration Transition in China Duan Chengrong, Qiu Yuding, Huang Fan, and Xie Donghong Population Research    2022, 46 (6): 41-58.   Abstract （1384）      PDF （12060KB）（192）       Knowledge map    Save Based on the national census data since 1982, combined with the methods and indicators such as migration participation rate, visibility of floating population, distribution of floating population, and interprovincial migration flow, this paper comprehensively summarizes the spatial development of floating population from the perspectives of departure areas, destination areas, and flow directions. Meanwhile, the paper further discusses the evolution and recent characteristics of China's migration transition based on the gender structure, age structure, educational structure, urban and rural structure, the separation of living place and household registration, the migration of ethnic minorities, and the situation of crossborder migration. The results show that high population mobility has become the new normal of China's population characteristics. The process of migration transition varies across different regions, while some regions has already entered a new phase of migration transition. During the past 40 years, the internal structure of China's floating population has changed rapidly, and the new characteristics have started to emerge. China's migration transition has been and will continue to be a comprehensive, multi-level, and diversified process. Related Articles | Metrics