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Dynamic Trend of China's Population Ageing and New Characteristics of the Elderly Yang Hanmo Population Research    2022, 46 (5): 104-116.   Abstract （4204）      PDF （1246KB）（2929）       Knowledge map    Save Based on the 7th National Population Census conducted in 2020 and previous censuses,this study analyzes the current situation and the dynamic trend of China's population ageing. This study first describes the health status, sources of livelihood, living arrangement, and marital status of the older population in general, and summarizes the characteristics of China's population ageing: The speed and depth of China's ageing process have been further strengthened, and the proportion of the elderly population in rural areas becomes higher. From 2010 to 2020, the self-assessed health status of the older people has improved, yet the gap between urban and rural areas is still significant; the proportion of widowed persons among the older people has declined, and the relative proportion of widowed persons is higher in rural areas and among women than their counterparts; the elderly security system is further improved, and the older people are more economically independent with less economic pressure; the phenomenon of “empty nest” is common among rural older people; and those who are unhealthy or living alone are more likely to rely on assistance from the government. Related Articles | Metrics

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Demographic Consequences of an Immediate Transition to a Universal Two-child Policy Zhai Zhenwu, Zhang Xianling, Jin Yongai Population Research    2014, 38 (2): 3-17.   Abstract （7977）      PDF （723KB）（11603）       Knowledge map    Save Fertility in China dropped below the replacement level in the early 1990s, and has been increasingly lower, arousing intense academic discussion on fertility policy adjustment．This paper estimates the size of objective population that is targeted by the two-child policy after computing the amount of the only children in 2012 based on the data of the 2005 national 1% population sampling survey, and analyzes its impact on number of annual births．The results show that on account of the large number of the objective population covered by the two-child policy and women's strong desire to have the second child，if there was an immediate transition to a universal two-child policy, number of annual births would sharply increase with the peak value up to nearly 50 million and a total fertility rate of about 4.5．However, immediately implementing the two-child policy could significantly retard the negative growth trend of population in the future, increase labor supply and slow down population aging in China． Related Articles | Metrics

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An Assessment of Abnormal Deaths during the Great Leap Forward Using a Modified Lee-Carter Model Mi Hong, Jia Ning Population Research    2016, 40 (1): 22-37.   Abstract （7731）      PDF （825KB）（3579）       Knowledge map    Save There is a lack of official report by the Chinese government regarding the exact number of abnormal deaths during the Great Leap Forward．Using a modified Lee-Carter mortality prediction model，this study conducts reverse prediction based on China’s official age-specific mortality data to recon- struct and calculate the single-year-age mortality rate and the normal deaths assuming that there was no great famine．Then we estimate the abnormal deaths during the Great Leap Forward occurring between 1958 and 1961．If there had been no famine，there would have been 43. 39 to 43. 85 million normal deaths．With famine，abnormal deaths are estimated to be between 16. 24 and 23. 37 million． Our results suggest that the medium estimation of the abnormal deaths during the Great Leap Forward stands at no more than 19. 8 million． Related Articles | Metrics Cited: Baidu(1)

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Estimating the Prevalence of Infertility in China Using Census Data Zhai Zhenwu and Liu Wenli Population Research    2020, 44 (2): 3-17.   Abstract （809）      PDF （1387KB）（1789）       Knowledge map    Save Some reports claim that Chinese womens infertility rate stands at around 15%, which might adversely affect the fertility rate. However, studies in different fields adopt different definitions and measurements of infertility, leading to considerable variations in prevalence estimates. The estimate (i.e. 15%) might be developed based on clinical or epidemiological definition, which does not necessarily mean that 15% of women are incapable of giving births throughout their lives. From the perspective of cohort fertility, we estimate the proportion of Chinese women aged 40-64 who have never given live births based on data from population censuses and annual sampling surveys. We argue that the proportion of women aged 40 and above reporting no live births or pregnancies has always been much lower than 15%. Universally Chinese women have given birth to at least one child by the end of their childbearing age. Related Articles | Metrics

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Continuity or Change? Chinese Family in Transitional Era Yang Juhua, He Zhaohua Population Research    2014, 38 (2): 36-51.   Abstract （1817）      PDF （807KB）（5800）       Knowledge map    Save  With industrialization，urbanization and modernization, the family institution has inevitably undergone changes. China has witnessed extraordinary social transformations over the past three decades. These forces have jointly brought about profound changes to the family organization. This paper traces the changing trend, patterns and characteristics in family structure, explores the causes of such change, and analyzes its consequences to family relationships andfamily functions in recent years in China. It has found that family size has shrunk，number of generations in the family is reduced，family forms become more diversified, and family relationship remain intimate but distanced. Also, many traditional family functions have been taken over by public agencies，and family norms and culture have been reshaped. While changesoccur in various ways and important challenges remain，the Chinese family has been so far resilient to societal transformation due to its deeply rooted tradition and current structural constraints. These have made intergenerational reciprocity attractive and prevented the Chinese family from decline. In the future, the government and the family have to face challenges brought about by demographic transition, persistently large-scale migration, and changing norms towards the family. Related Articles | Metrics

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Postponement of Marriage and Childbearing in China during 1990-2020: Trends and Characteristics Zhang Xianling, Sheng Yi'nan Population Research    2023, 47 (5): 88-101.   Abstract （697）      PDF （1695KB）（722）       Knowledge map    Save Using the census and sampling survey data between 1990 and 2020, this study examines the postponement of marriage and childbearing in China. The results show a persistent increase in the mean age at first marriage in urban and rural China. However, the postponement of the first marriage started earlier in urban areas than rural areas during 2000-2010. The postponement of first marriage in rural areas accelerated during 2010-2020. This led to a widening and then narrowing trend of the urban-rural gap. Age at first marriage differs across educational attainment; women and men with higher education significantly postpone their first marriage. Men with higher education also show a lower likelihood of staying unmarried for life. The curve of age-specific fertility rate for women at childbearing age has shifted downwards to the right, and the peak childbearing age of urban women has shifted more than that of rural women. The mean age at childbearing has been increasing, with a more rapid speed in 2000-2010 and then a slower one in 2010-2020. The mean age at childbearing of each parity has been postponed, especially for the first and second births. Women with different educational levels all postpone childbearing, and those with higher education levels show larger postponement. Related Articles | Metrics

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Patterns and Determinates of Premarital Pregnancy in China Li Ding,Tian Siyu Population Research    2017, 41 (3): 87-100.   Abstract （502）      PDF （1142KB）（1964）       Knowledge map    Save The rising incidence of premarital pregnancy is largely an indication of the rapid change of the attitudes and practices about sex and marriage in China．Pregnancies ended with abortion also imply new threats to women’ s health and development．Based on discussing the data bias and theoretical shortages in past research，we propose new frames to measure and analyze this problem．Using data from the 2013 National Floating Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey we examine age，peri- od，and cohort trends in premarital pregnancy，and test hypotheses about the effect of migration．Re- sults show that younger cohorts have higher incidence of premarital pregnancy promoted by migration， especially for the rural migrants and those with lower education．We suggest to collect more data on premarital sex behavior and pregnancy，and to offer family planning services for the youth and adults who have not yet married． Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Study on the Unnatural Deaths and the Related Issues during the Difficult Three Year Period#br# Cheng Enfu,Zhan Zhihua Population Research    2017, 41 (2): 97-112.   Abstract （20774）      PDF （233KB）（2861）       Knowledge map    Save The opinion that 30 million is the number of unnatural deaths during the Chinese Difficult Three Year Period( 1959-1961) is worth deliberating. It can be estimated，with the average death toll from 1955 to 1957 as the normal standard and the missing report of deaths from 1953 to 1964 plus the subsequently modification combined，that there were approximately four to five million people who ex- perienced unnatural deaths during the Difficult Three Year Period. The distributions of unnatural deaths apparently differ largely in regional structure，age structure as well as gender structure. Even though the millions of unnatural deaths is a lesson to reflect upon，still，the efforts the Chinese government made against the famine as well as the achievements they reached should not be obliterated. In addition， there were a series of complicated causes that led to the large number of unnatural deaths，and it is difficult to find out the proper answer only based upon the simple cause ＆effect relationship. Therefore， the discussion of this issue should be done by carrying out specific analyses in specific problems. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Empty-nest Elderly Households in China: Trends and Patterns Tao Tao, Jin Guangzhao, Guo Yalong Population Research    2023, 47 (1): 58-71.   Abstract （2453）      PDF （12724KB）（668）       Knowledge map    Save Drawing upon data from 2000, 2010 and 2020 population censuses, this study examines trends and patterns of the empty-nest elderly households in China. The level of empty-nest elderly households has been increasing both in urban and rural areas over the last 20 years, and has increased in all China's provinces over the past decade. In 2020, empty-nest elderly population is estimated approximately to be 0.15 billion, of which 7.7 million are the oldest old living alone. The oldest old and female elderly are more likely to live alone. Nearly 70% of the living-alone elderly are widowed, and nearly 10% are still unmarried. Empty-nest elderly live mainly on family support, social security, and labor income. Their health conditions are generally good, but a small proportion are disabled. Few living-alone elderly have caregivers to provide care for them, and even for those disabled only 19.86% receive such care. Policy implications are discussed. Related Articles | Metrics

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Analysis of Induced Abortion of Chinese Women Qiao Xiaochun Population Research    2002, 26 (3): 16-25.   Abstract （1069）      PDF （250KB）（4037）       Knowledge map    Save Estimates of the ratio and rate of induced abortion are made based on the data from annual statistics in the Ministry of Health and the National Population and Reproductive Health Survey conducted by the State Family Planning Commission in 1997, and the causes of the induced abortion are analyzed by using the 1997 survey data as well .It is found that the rate of induced abortion in urban areas was higher than that in rural areas ;the rate undertaken by conceived women who had only girls was lower than that by women who had at least one boy ;induced abortion caused by unwilling pregnancy due to the contraceptive failure was the dominant reason .However, inconsistency with the requirement of family planning was the main cause of the induced abortion in rural areas. Related Articles | Metrics Cited: Baidu(26)

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Recent Levels and Trends of Fertility in China Chen Wei，Duan Yuanyuan Population Research    2019, 43 (1): 3-17.   Abstract （796）      PDF （4629KB）（1101）       Knowledge map    Save Based on 2017 China Fertility Survey data, this paper evaluates China's fertility levels and trends in the decade preceding the survey by adopting and comparing multiple fertility measures, including total fertility rate (TFR), parity progressionbased total fertility rate (PPTFR), intrinsic total fertility rate (ITFR) and lifetime fertility rate (LFR). The results show that the average of TFR, PPTFR and ITFR over the past decade in China stands at around 1.65, 1.67 and 1.74 respectively. PPTFR and ITFR provide increasingly better estimations of the actual fertility by controlling the tempo effects in TFR. The lifetime fertility rate of cohort aged 35 and above is over 1.6 and increasing with age. Based on the multiple estimations, our main conclusion is that Chinas recent fertility level is above 1.6, and the implementation of the twochild policy has significantly increased the fertility level. Reduction in the TFR for first birth is largely driven by the tempo effect of delayed age at marriage and birth, while the marked increase in the TFR for second birth reflects the birthbunching effect due to the newly implemented two-child policy. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Population Carrying Capacity: Evolution,Problems and Prospect Tong Yufen Population Research    2012, 36 (5): 28-36.   Abstract （1901）      PDF （647KB）（2817）       Knowledge map    Save There have long been debates and conflicting arguments in the studies of population carrying capacity． This paper examines dilemmas and challenges in the studies of population carrying capacity．There are three major difficulties in the research of population carrying capacity: difficulty in conducting quantitative models of population carrying capacity with empirical researches due to limitations in theoretical hypotheses，difficulty in accurately determining the results of population carrying capacity due to the changing nature and the complexity and uncertainty of the influencing factors of population carrying capacity，and difficulty in operationalizing policy measures deriving from the research on population carrying capacity．The author argues that population carrying capacity exists objectively，and scholars should not abandon their research just because of the difficulties and problems in the studies of population carrying capacity．There is a need in the research on population carrying capacity to disembarrass of that of biological carrying capacity．Studies on population carrying capacity need to be conducted in dynamic perspectives． Related Articles | Metrics Cited: Baidu(13)

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Only Child and Families with Only Child in China Song Jian Population Research    2005, 29 (2): 16-24.   Abstract （2057）      PDF （140KB）（5492）       Knowledge map    Save Related Articles | Metrics Cited: Baidu(26)

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Effect Analysis of Population Increase on Economic Development Population Research    2001, 25 (1): 20-23.   Abstract （1237）      PDF （108KB）（4650）       Knowledge map    Save Related Articles | Metrics

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The Effect of China’s Family Planning Policy on Women’s Social Status Lu Wanjun, Zhang Binbin Population Research    2016, 40 (4): 21-34.   Abstract （1064）      PDF （221KB）（3326）       Knowledge map    Save This paper assesses the effect of Chinese family planning policy on women’s social sta- tus using data from the 2010 Chinese General Social Survey．Employing regression models by difference-in-difference strategy，the study finds that urban women under the one-child policy have 0．71 more years of schooling than rural women，and the family planning policy also enables the intervention groups to have 1．45 more years of schooling than the control group—ethnic minorities．The family plan- ning policy has obviously promoted gender education equality．With the improvement of female education level，gender income gap began to shrink．But no significant reduction has occurred in the gender gap of return on education．Furthermore，Attitude to division of housework and to marital independence has not significantly changed． Related Articles | Metrics

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Where Do the Low skilled Laborers Go in the Era of “Machine Substitution”?A Study Based on China Labor force Dynamic Survey Data Qi Jianhong, Fu Jingjing Population Research    2022, 46 (4): 114-128.   Abstract （1056）      PDF （16422KB）（629）       Knowledge map    Save This study investigates the impact and mechanism of robots on the inter-city outflow of low-skilled laborers based on the China Labor-force Dynamic Survey and customs data. The results show that robots reduce the number of jobs in the secondary industry and replace the low-skilled laborers, increasing the probability of low-skilled workers' outflow across cities. In terms of industry transfer, robots lead to a higher probability of low-skilled laborers under 45 years old flowing into the service industry and low-skilled laborers above 45 years old flowing into primary industry. In terms of city transfer, the probability of low-skilled laborers flowing into the city's service industry and first-tier city's service industry has increased due to robots. In terms of inter-region movement, more educated low-skilled laborers tend to move to East China, while less educated low-skilled laborers tend to move to the west regions. The results have important policy implications for formulating policy regarding robot industry and population movement. Related Articles | Metrics

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Peri-urbanization in China Li Aimin Population Research    2013, 37 (4): 80-91.   Abstract （1935）      PDF （902KB）（3199）       Knowledge map    Save Using data from the sixth population census，this paper explores the characteristics，formation mechanisms，and solution paths of peri-urbanization in China at province and prefecture level． Results show that more than 80% of the prefecture-level cities are subject to some degree of peri-urbanization．The higher the urbanization rate of permanent residents，the higher the urbanization rate of household registered population． Peri-urbanization increases from western to eastern regions，with the eastern region being of high-moderate peri-urbanization，the central region of moderate-low urbanization，and the western region of low-moderate urbanization，respectively． There is an increasing trend of peri-urbanization with the increase of the permanent residents.Among the capital cities，Shanghai has the highest peri-urbanization level，followed by Guangzhou，and Urumqi，and among the non-capital cities，Shengzhen has the highest level of peri-urbanization，followed by Dongguan.The city with lowest peri-urbanization level is Yichun．Regional development gap，household registration system，and distribution of interests are the major factors influencing peri-urbanization in China．Policies addressing peri-urbanization should be directed at promoting regional integration and development of urban and rural areas，adjusting interest allocation pattern，and deepening reforms of household registration system． Related Articles | Metrics

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Strategic Thinking on Developing Small and Medium-sized Cities to Balance Urbanization Gu Shengzu, Zheng Chao,Cao Yubo Population Research    2014, 38 (4): 19-26.   Abstract （1647）      PDF （102KB）（2422）       Knowledge map    Save Small and medium-sized cities have played important roles in China's new urbanization strategies. Small and medium-sized cities can not only help large cities avert over-concentration of population，but also avoid excessively decentralized rural industrialization in small towns. To develop small and medium-sized cities，characteristic industries and vocational education are required so that people can get employed in the cities and become residents easily. City infrastructure and public services are necessary for urban residents. Public-Private Partnership (PPP) may solve the problems of fund shortage that the local government is facing during the construction. Besides，supply system of accommodations should be modernized to help the rural-urban migration's dream of being settled down come true. Related Articles | Metrics

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A Study of the Influence of Population Ageing on Labor Force Participation Rate Zhou Zhuping, Liu Haibin Population Research    2016, 40 (3): 58-70.   Abstract （1338）      PDF （232KB）（3116）       Knowledge map    Save  Labor force participation level is important for labor supply and economic growth．Since changing age structure influences the overall labor force participation rate ( LFPR ) ，population ageing plays an important role in explaining differences in LFPR．By comparing age-standardized LFPR among China，Brazil，France，India，Japan and The U. S．，it is found that LFPR level of a young population is considerably higher than that of an older population under the same age-specific LFPR．Using the decomposition method of differences between rates，it is found that in 2013，the LFPR difference between China and Japan is at 12． 1 percentage points，of which 79． 0% is contributed by their age structure difference．Further empirical analysis through both national and international panel data models also indicate that LFPR is significantly negative related to population ageing． Related Articles | Metrics Cited: Baidu(2)

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From First Demographic Transition to Second Demographic Transition: Reflections on the Modern Demographic Transition Liu Shuang, Wei Yinxia, Ren Hui Population Research    2012, 36 (1): 15-24.   Abstract （2472）      PDF （387KB）（3488）       Knowledge map    Save Based on a brief analysis of the narrowly-defined demographic transition and the classical model,this paper argues that the proposed theory of the second demographic transition broadly interprets the internal motivation and mechanism of action of the demographic changes by drawing upon the demographic "intermediate variables",reflecting on the relationship between modern demographic transition and social changes at the macro,meso and micro levels.Demographic transition is a multi-dimensional dynamic historical process,involving a set of transitions on marriage,reproduction,family,health,population control etc.Demographic transition is not only demographic change,but more importantly,is its nested social change.The unprecedented close relationship between the two reflects the social changes and social needs.Over the past 30 years China has made its population be adapted to economic development through family planning.In the next 30 to 50 years or even longer,China should make economic and social development be adapted to the changes and needs of the population.The end of development is to improve population survival and enhance life quality. Related Articles | Metrics

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Population Research    2004, 28 (3): 68-75.   Abstract （1933）      PDF （214KB）（3527）       Knowledge map    Save Related Articles | Metrics

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Population Research    2002, 26 (2): 70-72.   Abstract （1189）      PDF （93KB）（3718）       Knowledge map    Save Related Articles | Metrics

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The Effect of Fertility on Women's Wages in China Yu Jia, Xie Yu Population Research    2014, 38 (1): 18-29.   Abstract （1523）      PDF （307KB）（2521）       Knowledge map    Save Using 1993 － 2006 China Health and Nutrition Survey data，we test the motherhood penalty hypothesis with fixed-effects models. We find that fertility has a significant negative influence on women's wage and that each additional child lowers hourly wages by about 7 percent. In addition，the negative effect becomes larger as the number of children increases. The hypothesis holds true even if the women's human capital，job characteristics and family constraints are taken into account. We further explore whether the motherhood penalty varies by social group. The results show that the negative effect of having children is especially pronounced among women with high levels of education，women holding professional and managerial jobs，and women working in the state sector. The study shows that family factors play an important role in contributing to gender disparities in earnings and perhaps other labor market outcomes in contemporary China. Related Articles | Metrics

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Motherhood Penalty on Chinese Women in Labor Market Yang Fan, He Yuchen Population Research    2022, 46 (5): 63-77.   Abstract （925）      PDF （1268KB）（576）       Knowledge map    Save Using China Family Panel Study ( CFPS) data from 2010 to 2018 and an event-study framework, we explore the impacts of children on the dynamic trajectory of female labor force participation and hours worked. The results show that the arrival of the first child creates a sudden and substantial decrease in the employment and monthly hours worked. The impacts sustain until the child is 4 years old. Within 0 - 3 years after the birth of the first child the employment and the monthly hours worked decreased significantly. Nevertheless, after 4 years beyond the birth of the first child, there is no statistical difference in the employment and monthly hours worked compared with the pre-birth stage. Compared with women, there is no significant impact of children on the labor supply for men.Meanwhile, we provide evidence that the motherhood penalties on labor supply are following the law of diminishing marginal cost. We end with the heterogeneity analyses which show that the college-educated and younger cohorts experience smaller labor supply declines. This study helps understand the magnitude and dynamic trajectory of motherhood penalties in China and provides illumination for the family policy to help women balance family and work and families realize their fertility intention from a perspective of international comparison. Related Articles | Metrics

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China Fertility Status Report, 2006-2016:An Analysis Based on 2017 China Fertility Survey He Dan, Zhang Xuying,Zhuang Yaer,Wang Zhili and Yang Shenghui Population Research    2018, 42 (6): 35-45.   Abstract （1046）      PDF （1681KB）（1160）       Knowledge map    Save Based on 2017 China Fertility Survey, this paper analyzes the national fertility level, fertility intentions, contraceptive use, and childbearing and parenting services. The results show that, from 2006 to 2016, the mean ages at first marriage and first birth increased by 2.7 and 2.6 years, respectively. The total fertility rate between 2006 and 2011 was between 1.60-1.70 and fluctuated between 2012 and 2016, peaking in the years of 2012 and 2016. Compared with the curves of age-specific fertility rate in 2006 and 2011, the one in 2016 shifted significantly to the right. Affected by the selective two-child policy and the universal two-child policy, the proportion of second parity has increased since 2012, while the trend is opposite for the proportion of first parity. Since 2011, the sex ratio at birth has declined slightly. For women at childbearing ages, the ideal number of children is 1.96, while the intended number of children is 1.75. The rate of contraceptive use of currently married women at childbearing ages is 84.7%. About 80.8% of children aged 3-5 are enrolled in the kindergarten, 34.9% are in public institutions and 65.1% in private institutions. The future trend of Chinese fertility is also discussed. Related Articles | Metrics

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Migrant Exogamy of the Ethnic Minorities in China Shen Si,Jian Xiaoqin and Xu Shiying Population Research    2019, 43 (6): 64-74.   Abstract （410）      PDF （648KB）（615）       Knowledge map    Save Drawing upon data from 2015 China Migrants Dynamic Survey, this article examines trends and patterns of migrant exogamy of China's ethnic minorities. We present estimates of exogamy rates of migrant ethnic minorities by education level, occupation and ethnic group. Compared with the exogamy rates derived from the Sixth Population Census, our results show that the exogamy rates of migrant ethnic minorities are higher than those of the overall ethnic minorities, while the exogamy rates vary across ethnic groups. Compared with the traditional exogamy circle of ethnic minorities, the exogamy circle of the migrant ethnic minorities has undergone great changes. The exogamy rates of migrant women are higher than those of migrant men. Improving educational level of ethnic minority population will play a positive role in promoting migration and exogamy of the ethnic minorities. Related Articles | Metrics

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Population Research    2005, 29 (6): 92-95.   Abstract （4313）      PDF （77KB）（12266）       Knowledge map    Save Related Articles | Metrics

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Residence Points System: Another“Patch”of Household Registration Reform? Characteristics，Problems and Countermeasures of Shanghai Residence Points System Xie Baofu Population Research    2014, 38 (1): 90-97.   Abstract （1810）      PDF （197KB）（2693）       Knowledge map    Save While residence points system has advantages in redirecting from management by conditions to management by points，diversifying points standards which are dynamic controllable，stratifying public services，orientating towards capabilities and contributions，and emphasizing local interests，there are also disadvantages in，for example，ignoring service management for the low income floating population，using efficiency means to solve equity problem，diminishing the quality of key services，and having difficulties in preventing rent-seeking behavior through fraud. To improve the system，residence card is needed to replace residence permit，allowing floating population to use for all consumption purposes. Application standards need to be lowered and the scope of public services needs to be expanded. However，in the areas of public rental housing，children＇s education and some other key services，there should be reasonable threshold. Provide appropriate quotas to those floating population who don’t meet the points but are legally residing and employed，allowing them to enjoy the same treatment with qualified applicants. Emancipate the mind，seek truth from facts，and properly solve localization service issues for low-income floating population. Since household registration involves interests that affect the situation as a whole，improving the system will need system and mechanism innovation of the national macro-management. Related Articles | Metrics

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When Fertility Support Policies are Effective？ Gender Equality, the Combination of Fertility Support Policies, and the Rebound of Total Fertility Rate in 27 Countries Zhang Yang, Li Lingchun Population Research    2023, 47 (4): 3-19.   Abstract （944）      PDF （13910KB）（464）       Knowledge map    Save China has witnessed a low total fertility rate for decades; thus, it is imperative to build a fertility support policy system based on the experience of other lowfertility countries. Drawing on a constructed longitudinal dataset, we investigate the associations of different fertility support policy combinations with a fertility rebound and the moderating effects of gender equality on these associations. We find that policy combinations supporting the dualearners model are more conducive to fertility rebound, compared to those supporting the malebreadwinner model. Economic support policies have a stable positive relationship with the total fertility rate, while the effects of service and time support policies are contingent upon gender equality. Specifically, the effects of service and time support policies are more pronounced with higher levels of gender equality. These findings suggest that we need to consider the coordination and combination of different types of fertility policies, and rethink the value orientation and social background behind the policies, and promote a genderfriendly social environment. Related Articles | Metrics

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From Separation to Reunion: An Analysis of the Familization of Migrants in China Hu Xinqiang, Zhao Yufeng Population Research    2021, 45 (4): 69-84.   Abstract （731）      PDF （7252KB）（523）       Knowledge map    Save This article analyzes the data of 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey, exploring the status of the familization of migrants in China. The research redefines the concept and types of the familization of migrants through three aspects, i.e., mobility mode, mobility process, and mobility result. It divides the migrant families into separate families and aggregate families according to the degree of familization. The study finds that the current Chinese migrant families are evolving from separation to reunion. The flow pattern of the Chinese migrants has shifted from singularity to diversification, presenting the characteristics of familybased mobility; the flow process follows three different sequences: “one of the spouses goes first” “husband and wife go first together”, and “other members go first”; and the flow path can be further divided as “separation” and “reunion” based on the husband and wife relationship and the parentchild relationship. These results demonstrate an overall family status of “more reunion and less separation”. An indepth investigation of the degree of familization of the migrants will help to grasp the basic status of the migrant families and provide important implications for urbanization of the migrants. Related Articles | Metrics

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China’s Low Fertility and Its Determinants Guo Zhigang Population Research    2008, 32 (4): 1-12.   Abstract （1944）      PDF （1730KB）（2122）       Knowledge map    Save Related Articles | Metrics

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Marriage and Divorce in China: Trends and Global Comparison Yu Jia,Zhao Xiaohang,Xie Yu Population Research    2020, 44 (5): 3-18.   Abstract （717）      PDF （2098KB）（644）       Knowledge map    Save Chinese family has experienced dramatic changes in recent decades, especially in terms of union formation and dissolution. Using data from Census, miniCensus, and China Family Panel Studies, we provide estimates of marriage and divorce in China. We further compare marriage and divorce trends of China with those in the United States, Japan, South Korea, Russia, British, France, German, Italy, and Spain. Our results show a delayed first marriage age and increased singlehood rate in China, yet marriage is still earlier and more universal in China than in other developed countries. We expect increases in both marriage age and singlehood rate as Chinas economy further develops. Despite a high crude divorce rate in recent China, our results based on age and cohort analysis reveal that divorce is much less prevalent in China than in other countries. With the persistent childcentered family culture, we argue that marriage in China will remain relatively stable in the short term. Related Articles | Metrics

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Fertility Intention of Chinese Women and Its Determinants under the Universal Two-Child Policy：Based on the 2017 National Fertility Survey Zhuang Yaer, Jiang Yu, Li Bohua Population Research    2021, 45 (1): 68-81.   Abstract （1259）      PDF （1717KB）（662）       Knowledge map    Save Based on the data from 2017 national fertility survey, this paper analyzes patterns and determinants of fertility intention in China under the universal two-child policy. The survey suggests that womens average ideal number of children is 1.96 and the average number of intended children is 1.76. For women born in the 1990s and beyond, the number of children they intend to have is 1.70, while for women who have not yet had any children, their intended number of children is 1.60, both are lower than the current average, indicating that there is room for a further decline in the fertility in China. About 9.3 percent of women intend to have three or more children. Among women who have at least two children, the corresponding proportion of women whose first two are girls is 45.6 percent. The regional difference of the intended number of children is more apparent. Sex-selective abortion inhibits fertility intentions and reduces the number of birth, however, in the case of unsatisfactory sex composition of children and tendency to continue to have children, son preference plays a role in strengthening fertility intention and increasing the number of births. Related Articles | Metrics

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A Review of Studies on China's Population and Macroeconomics Issues Song Shujie, Lu Yang Population Research    2020, 44 (6): 114-125.   Abstract （681）      PDF （571KB）（523）       Knowledge map    Save Fertility rate, population growth, and economic development are usually causally correlated with complex relationships among each other. The mainstream academic point of views towards demography from literature highly depend on the economic development level at that time. In the early time, the literature mainly focused on the interrelationship between population and economic development. After the 1990s, a growing number of scholars believed that demographic structure, rather than population size, is more important for economic growth. Demographic dividend is also correlated with demographic transition, fertility rate, and even the one-child policy. In addition, as economists began to introduce population issues into the framework of macroeconomic, lots of interdisciplinary research emerged in recent years. In this paper, population and macroeconomic issues are summarized according to different stages of research, and the potential research directions are given in the end. Related Articles | Metrics

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China's Low Fertility and Provincial Differences: Fertility Index-based Observation Song Jian, Hu Bo, Jiang Chunyun, Chen Wenqi Population Research    2023, 47 (5): 74-87.   Abstract （461）      PDF （1379KB）（437）       Knowledge map    Save Focusing on the phenomenon that childbearing-age people "do not want to give birth, ""dare not to give birth," and "are unable to give birth," we comprehensively consider the three dimensions of fertility—intention, conditions, and structure, build a fertility composite index according to the relevant theories of low fertility rate, observe and analyze the current situation of low fertility rate in China, and make inter-provincial comparisons. We find that the average national fertility composite index is 0.492. The fertility condition index is the lowest, reflecting the constraints on fertility caused by employment and income factors and lack of fertility support. The structural characteristics of the childbearing-age people are consistent in all provinces, while the fertility intention and fertility conditions are spatially heterogeneous. There is a positive association between fertility index and total fertility rate. With a 0.1 unit increase in fertility index, total fertility rate increases by 0.286 units. Improving fertility intention can help effectively increase the total fertility rate; however, the changes in fertility conditions and fertility structure have not been able to effectively promote the total fertility rate. It is thus necessary to establish, improve, and implement long-term fertility support in order to reshape the fertility intention and change the behavior of the population. Related Articles | Metrics

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Sexuality, Sexual Network and Risks of HIV Infection Among Money Boys(MB) in Northeast China Fu Xiaoxing, Lei Zhang, Eric P.F.Chow, Ma Tiecheng Population Research    2012, 36 (4): 91-102.   Abstract （6461）      PDF （153KB）（2503）       Knowledge map    Save Money boys have become one of the emerging populations in the underground sex industry in China in recent years.Due to the rapid spread of HIV infection among Chinese MBs,MB is now one of the targeted populations in the HIV/AIDS intervention and prevention programs.This qualitative study employed participant observation,in-depth interview and focus-group methods to investigate the sexual networks among MBs and the operation mechanism of the sex industry in Northeast China.HIV intervention programs targeted different venues,services and self-identity among MBs should be implemented. Related Articles | Metrics

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Negative Population Growth in the World: Characteristics, Trends, and Responses Tao Tao,Jin Guangzhao,Zhang Xianling Population Research    2020, 44 (4): 46-61.   Abstract （930）      PDF （2874KB）（615）       Knowledge map    Save Using the WPP2019 data, this article investigates negative population growth across the world during 1950-2018, and compares negative population growth between China and typical countries with identical origin point model. 107 countries (regions) in the world experienced negative population growth in 1950-2018, of which 20 were caused by the inherent mechanism of population. These 20 countries are all from Europe except Japan, and have experienced 19-year longest negative growth duration on average, and confront low fertility and population ageing. Compared to Germany, Hungary, and Russia, negative population growth occurs later in Japan and China, exhibiting a pattern of rapid development, long-term acceleration and weak resilience. In addition, the working-age population decrease earlier than the total population in Japan and China, ageing is severer, and the proportions of children aged 0-14 are lower. It is of growing significance to explore the new rules of population development, policy responses and long-term planning as soon as possible in the negative population growth era. Related Articles | Metrics

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Economic Income and Intergenerational Economic Support of the Urban and Rural Elderly in China#br# Sun Juanjuan Population Research    2017, 41 (1): 34-45.   Abstract （512）      PDF （200KB）（2272）       Knowledge map    Save Based on data from 2014 China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey conducted by Renmin University of China,this paper analyzes the income levels and intergenerational economic support of the Chinese elderl.The study explores the influencing factors of the income of urban and rural elderly using multiple linear regression model.The results show that the average income of the urban elderly is 4.5 times that of the rural elderly.The“upward”transfer of economic resources is the main pattern among the families of Chinese elderly,while“downward”transfer is also distinct among the urban elderly in terms of the percentage and degree of the transfers to their childre.Both the early endowed qualifications and multiple cumulative social factors in the elderly’ s life courses are significantly related to the income level of the Chinese elderl.However,big differences are found among rural and urban elderly in terms of the effects or even the directions of the influencing factors.This paper proposes that the key of enhancing economic security in later life is to improve people’ s economic independence instead of encouraging economic supports by family members for elderly． Related Articles | Metrics

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Applications of Population Projection in the PADIS-INT: Comparative Study on MORTPAK, Spectrum and PADIS-INT Zhai Zhenwu，Li Long，Chen Jiaju，Chen Wei Population Research    2017, 41 (6): 84-97.   Abstract （1255）      PDF （1465KB）（1482）       Knowledge map    Save Cohort-component method, the most widely used method in population projections, involves the issues of calculation and the details of programming when applied to the population projection software, which could impact the accuracy of projection results. Taking the mainstream projection software programs into account and based on the actual population data of Sweden, this paper, conducting comparative population projection tests, examines the applications of cohort-component method in the three population projection software programs including MORTPAK, Spectrum (DemProj) and PADIS-INT. The results show that the results of single-year age group obtained by the interpolation of five-year age group of the initial population are consistent and close between the three software programs; there is little difference in survival ratios calculated on the basis of the projection results of the three software programs; in the birth population projection, the three software programs don’t show great difference either. PADIS-INT has reached the projection level that international mainstream population projection software should have. Since PADIS-INT supports richer functionality especially in the parameter setting and the presentation of projection results, it is more suitable for a detailed population projection with application properties Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Population Research    2006, 30 (4): 93-95.   Abstract （6406）      PDF （244KB）（8707）       Knowledge map    Save Related Articles | Metrics