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On the Statistical Standard, Intensity, and Age Patterns of Migration and Floating Population in China Ding Jinhong, Huang Xiaoli, Han Yulu, Chen Yihao Population Research    2025, 49 (1): 3-19.   Abstract （3532）      PDF （1436KB）（3932）       Knowledge map    Save By combining the places of residence at present, five years ago and at birth, and the place of household registration from census tabulations, migrations in China can be divided into basic categories including long-term migration, short-term migration, direct migration, nominal migration and circulation. Based on both macro and micro data from 2020 census, the scale and intensity of various types of inter-provincial migration are estimated, revealing differences in cultural stickiness and institutional resistance at both origin and destination. To avoid ambiguity, it is recommended that “Inter-X Migration” stands for the migration crossing the area boundaries of level X but not crossing the boundaries of upper level, “Intra-X Migration” stands for the migration crossing the area boundaries below level X, “Cross-X Migration”stands for the migration crossing the area boundaries of level X and above. The Courgeau model indicates that the Crude Migration Intensity (CMI) for lifelong migration in China is 49.5%, while the CMI for five-year migration is 21.0%, showing that Chinese people are becoming more migratory as urbanization progresses. The Rogers age patterns of migration also correspond to contemporary China with some peculiarities in the middle and older age peak. The high proportion of adolescents in nominal migration means that the household registration system still prevents the descendants of migrants from settling down de jure. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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From being “Supplementary” to being “Irreplaceable”: The Impact of Digital Literacy on the Reemployment Transition of the Retired People Chen Nanxu, Li Yuxuan, Wu Jiyu Population Research    2024, 48 (4): 51-68.   Abstract （1840）      PDF （1322KB）（3100）       Knowledge map    Save In the era of rapid expansion of the digital economy and the gradual erosion of demographic dividends, enhancing digital literacy provides a new opportunity for the retired population to re-realize their self-worth and harness their comparative advantages. Based on the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data, this paper empirically investigates the influence of digital literacy on retirees' re-employment transitions by employing binary Logit and Probit models. The results show that the improvement of digital literacy notably fosters retirees' transition into reemployment, and this promoting effect is stronger among those with greater learning investments. The primary mechanisms underlying this enhancement lie in social integration and social capital augmentation, while the effectiveness of information acquisition depends on retirees' ability to discern information. Notably, the positive impact of improved digital literacy on reemployment is more pronounced among older adults with higher educational attainment and in regions with lower levels of digital economic development. It is recommended that the delayed retirement ages be formulated differentially to facilitate the construction of a digitally inclusive and age-friendly society. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Late Marriage and Non-Marriage in China: Trends, Characteristics, and Determinants Zhang Xianling, Chen Jiaju Population Research    2025, 49 (3): 36-51.   Abstract （5422）      PDF （1215KB）（1927）       Knowledge map    Save Based on data from population censuses and a specialized survey, this paper systematically examines the trends, characteristics, and determinants of late marriage and non-marriage in China from 1990 to 2020. The findings reveal that the size of the never-married population aged 30 and above has been growing since 1990, with a larger absolute increase among men but a faster growth rate among women. The urban never-married population surpassed the rural never-married population after 2010. Among the never-married population aged 30 and above, those with a junior high school education constitute the largest increment, while those with a college degree or higher exhibit the fastest growth rate. In addition, the lifelong never-married population has grown, with men outnumbering women and in rural areas exceeding in urban areas. While the largest increment occurred among those with lower educational attainment, recent years have witnessed accelerated increases in both the size and prevalence of non-marriage among highly educated groups. Further analysis reveals that never-married people aged 30 and above exhibit low marriage intentions and demonstrate passive dating behaviors, which are likely to further depress marriage rates and elevate late marriage and non-marriage rates. Structural mismatches in marriage markets and economic pressures are the predominant factors influencing marital decision-making. The study proposes marital support policies focusing on expanding partner-matching networks and reducing the economic costs of marriage. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Trends in Marriage Postponement in China: An Analysis Using Multiple Methods Chen Wei, Ouyang Baihui Population Research    2024, 48 (6): 18-32.   Abstract （4244）      PDF （1329KB）（1170）       Knowledge map    Save Data from 2020 Population Census show an acceleration in the trend of delaying first marriages in China since 2010. The mean age at first marriage for women rose from 23.28 years in 2000 to 24.00 years in 2010 and to 27.95 years in 2020. Given that the population-weighted method is influenced by age structure, alternative methods, including rate-weighted method, the singulate mean age at marriage and net nuptiality table, are used to calculate and compare the mean age at first marriage for Chinese women. All indicators reflect the similar trend of delaying first marriage among Chinese women, with a noticeable acceleration in recent years. However, when age structure effects are removed, the increase in the mean age at first marriage for Chinese women shows a more moderate upward trend, with a delay of 2.92 to 3.78 years between 2000 and 2020, which is less than the result calculated by the population-weighted method. Across the different indicators, an initial widening and then narrowing trend in the urban-rural gap in first marriage delay is observed. After controlling for age structure, the extent of delay in first marriage is lower for all urban, town and rural women, with the difference being smaller in urban and larger in towns and rural areas. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impact of Fertility Support Policy on Fertility Desire of the Reproductive-Age Population: An Empirical Analysis Based on 2021 Chengdu Specialized Survey Wang Zhuo, Li Menghe Population Research    2024, 48 (4): 3-18.   Abstract （2541）      PDF （1281KB）（1121）       Knowledge map    Save To explore the impact of fertility support policy on fertility desire and its mechanisms, this study divides fertility support policy into pregnancy support policy and parenting support policy based on fertility behavior, and conductes empirical analysis using the special survey data of “Effectiveness evaluation of fertility policy and supporting measures” in Chengdu in 2021. The results show that there is a significant positive relationship between pregnancy support policy and fertility desire, while the relationship between parenting support policy and fertility intention is not supported by empirical evidence. In further exploring of the differential mechanisms of fertility cost perceptions and fertility preferences in the impact of pregnancy support policies on fertility desire, the childbearing age groups can be classified into four categories: “daring but not willing to give birth”, “not willing and not daring to give birth”, “daring and willing to give birth” and “willing but not daring to give birth”. Different policy directions are applicable to different types of childbearing age groups under different mechanisms. Therefore, constructing a long-term fertility support policy system requires the scientific identification of target groups and precise policies to improve policy effectiveness and to effectively enhance fertility levels. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Observations of Chinese Culture of Marriage and Childbearing in the Context of Low Fertility Song Jian, Liu Shiwen, Tang Tianrong Population Research    2024, 48 (5): 17-30.   Abstract （2472）      PDF （1276KB）（1092）       Knowledge map    Save Constructing a new culture of marriage and childbearing (CMC) has been widely valued by China in recent years. However, there is still a lack of consensus on basic issues such as the definition and characteristics of the CMC. By drawing on cultural paradigm and related theories, we construct a conceptual framework of CMC, integrating the macro and micro levels, as well as two dimensions of cognition and practice, and define CMC as people's values and behaviors related to marriage and childbearing, along with corresponding social norms and customs. By using Etic and Emic Analysis, we first observe CMC in the context of societal changes, revealing that China's marriage and parenting culture exhibits a blend of traditional resilience and modern adaptability, demonstrating characteristics of both tradition and modernity. Then, based on the data from the National “Observation Notes on CMC” collected in 2024, we examine the CMC from the perspective of young people, revealing changes in the internal mechanism of CMC. In this context, we suggest that the construction of CMC in the new era should follow two basic principles: the continuity in the historical dimension and the unity in reality dimension. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Reproductive Cycle Transition: A Historical Review, Future Prospects, and Theoretical Construction from an International Comparative Perspective Geng Wenjun, Ding Jinhong, Shen Ke, Gu Gaoxiang Population Research    2025, 49 (4): 3-19.   Abstract （1612）      PDF （1384KB）（914）       Knowledge map    Save The reproductive cycle refers to the process from a woman's first to last birth. Through a systematic categorization and analysis of the evolution of reproductive cycles across global regions, combined with theoretical discussions on long-term demographic development, this study reveals that reproductive cycle evolution exhibits significant ergodicity, termed the Reproductive Cycle Transition (RCT). The RCT progresses through four stages: a Steady-State Stage, a Compression Stage, a Leveling-Off Stage, and an Equilibrium Stage. It shifts from a traditional pattern characterized by a low age at first birth, a high age at last birth, and a long reproductive span (“low-high-high”) to a modern pattern characterized by a high age at first birth, a low age at last birth, and a short reproductive span (“high-low-low”). The RCT parallels the fertility transition. Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand and East Asia have entered the Leveling-Off Stage. In contrast, most of Asia, Africa, and Latin America are in the late stage of the Compression Stage, while East, Central, and West Africa remain in their early stage. China's reproductive cycle exhibits an accelerated pattern, beginning in the 1960s and entering the Leveling-Off Stage by the early 1990s. The shortening of the reproductive span carries the risk of lowest-low fertility. Fertility support policies should target the distinct fertility needs of women across different age groups. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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From “Baby Boom” to “Ageing Boom”: Facts and Trends Du Peng, Ma Qifeng Population Research    2025, 49 (3): 3-19.   Abstract （2221）      PDF （1268KB）（850）       Knowledge map    Save As the “ageing echo” of the “Baby Boom”, the “Ageing Boom” has not yet received sufficient scholarly attention. Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, the nation has experienced four distinct “Baby Boom” cohorts, which are projected to transform into “Ageing Boom” during the periods 2010-2018, 2022-2036, 2041-2054, and 2071-2079 respectively. Each “Ageing Boom” represents a peak in the growth of the new elderly population, and its cumulative and superimposed effects will drive China's ageing population through phased transformations characterized by sequential stages: ascent, peak, buffer, and decline. China's demographic ageing under the “Ageing Boom” paradigm exhibits both distinctive and general characteristics: a historically unprecedented population scale, asynchronous growth in size and proportion, ageing of the age structure, balancing of the gender structure, and steadily rising survival rates. Focusing on the ongoing second “Ageing Boom”, projections indicate that approximately 330 million individuals will enter old age, with urban residents and population with at least secondary education constituting the majority of this elderly cohort. These demographic shifts present dual implications—harboring developmental opportunities while simultaneously posing practical challenges that require prudent consideration and proactive responses. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Living Arrangements of the Contemporary Older People in China: An Analysis Based on Three Perspectives Wang Yuesheng Population Research    2024, 48 (4): 33-50.   Abstract （2299）      PDF （1290KB）（718）       Knowledge map    Save This paper uses the short-form, long-form, and long-form 1% sampling data from the seventh national population census to analyze the living style of the elderly aged 65 and above. According to the data in the short form, among households with two elderly people, the percentage of elderly couples living alone is more than 55%, while among households with one elderly person, more than 36% of the elderly live alone. The data in the long form show that the vast majority of the elderly live at home, and less than 1% live in institutions. According to the long-form 1% sampling data, the total proportion of elderly couples living alone and singles living alone exceeds 50%. China's contemporary elderly people has entered an era dominated by couples living alone and single living alone. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Evolution of International Migration in the United States from 1990 to 2020 Ding Zhihong, Wang Tianzheng Population Research    2024, 48 (4): 115-132.   Abstract （2205）      PDF （1376KB）（687）       Knowledge map    Save Based on the “Yearbook of Immigration Statistics” published by the United States Department of Homeland Security and the Global Migration Stock Database released by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, this paper systematically analyzes the scale, structure, origins, and destinations of international migration to and from the United States from 1990 to 2020. The study finds that the scale of international immigration to the United States is significant, having gone through four phases over the past 30 years: decline, rebound, fluctuation, and decline again. The immigrant population mainly consists of people of working age, with a stable gender ratio. North America (excluding the United States) and Asia are the primary sources of immigrants to the United States. Additionally, the top ten countries and regions of origin for immigrants have remained relatively stable. On the other hand, international emigration from the United States has experienced three phases over the past 30 years: increase, decrease, and rebound. The gender differences in the emigrant population are generally small but vary significantly across different regions. Europe and North America remain the primary destinations for American emigrants, but an increasing number of Americans are emigrating to Asia. The patterns and governance of international migration in the United States have multiple implications for China. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Impact of Premarital Cohabitation on Stability of First Marriage in China: An Analysis Based on CFPS Data Lu Jiehua, Gu Yuchen Population Research    2025, 49 (1): 117-132.   Abstract （2292）      PDF （1388KB）（622）       Knowledge map    Save In line with the expectation of the Second Demographic Transition, premarital cohabitation is becoming increasingly common in China. Based on China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data from 2010 to 2022, this study adopts the Cox proportional hazards regression model to analyze the influence of premarital cohabitation on the stability of first marriage and its mechanisms. This study also tests several competitive hypotheses, including the Trial Marriage Hypothesis, the Experience Hypothesis, the Selectivity Hypothesis, and the Diffusion Hypothesis. The findings show that the risk of divorce at first marriage is significantly higher for those who have experienced premarital cohabitation, and the negative effect of premarital cohabitation on the stability of first marriage is still robust after removing the self-selection effect. The cultural meaning and popularity of premarital cohabitation varies across different groups. Further analysis reveals the moderating effects of birth cohorts and education levels. Overall, premarital cohabitation still has a negative effect on the stability of first marriage in the Chinese context. However, as cohabitation gradually spreads among recent birth cohorts and highly educated groups, its negative influence is weakened, supporting the main argument of the Diffusion Hypothesis. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Population Trends and Population Development Positioning in China's Border Areas Xu Shiying, Cai Guolan Population Research    2025, 49 (1): 53-69.   Abstract （2330）      PDF （1346KB）（528）       Knowledge map    Save The land border areas are key regions for the country to maintain territorial sovereignty, integrity, and security. Since the new century, China has made great achievements in its modernization drive, greatly improving its national strength, and fundamentally altering its border security situation. At the same time, the trend of regional population increase and decrease in China has been directly reflected in these border areas. The seventh national census data show that the total population in border areas across the country has begun to decrease, which has attracted widespread attention from Chinese society. Based on census data, the population change trends in border areas are presented, and the current security situation faced by China's border areas is analyzed. The research results indicate that the current population changes in China's border areas are an inevitable result of China's modernization process and will not adversely impact national defense and security in these areas. In the new era, we need to accelerate urbanization in border areas, reduce the populations engaged in agriculture and animal husbandry, improve the level of economic and social development in border areas, leverage China's modernization to drive the common development of neighboring countries, jointly build a community of shared future for mankind on both sides of the border, and create a higher level of security and stability in border areas. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Age Identity and Social Participation of Older Adults in China Wang Lu, Chen Lu Population Research    2024, 48 (5): 50-66.   Abstract （2249）      PDF （1290KB）（490）       Knowledge map    Save Using data from the 2018 and 2020 China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS), this study defines age identity by comparing perceived old age with chronological age and measures social participation across economic, volunteer, religious, and leisure activities. We employ the instrumental variable method to explore the impact of age identity on the social participation of older adults. The results show that positive age identity significantly promotes the social participation of older adults, primarily by improving their health and strengthening their social adaptability. This increase in social participation is most evident in economic, volunteer, and leisure activities. The impact of positive age identity on social participation is more pronounced among older women than among older men. A higher level of positive age identity is associated with increased social participation among older adults aged 60 to 69 years old. However, when the level of positive age perception is higher, it has no significant effect on social participation among older adults aged 70 to 79 years old. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Influence of Intergenerational Living Arrangements on Family Care Vulnerability of Chinese Older Adults Liang Lixia, Huang Yan Population Research    2024, 48 (5): 67-81.   Abstract （1471）      PDF （1264KB）（465）       Knowledge map    Save Intergenerational living arrangements reflecting the family organization structure shape differentiated family care practices and significantly affect the vulnerability of family care for older adults. Using the 2018 China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS) and an Ordered Logit regression model, this study analyzes the impact of intergenerational living arrangements on the vulnerability of family care for older adults and its mechanisms. The study reveals that the family care for older adults in China generally exhibits characteristics of moderate to high vulnerability, with the intergenerational living arrangements of families with older adults predominantly featuring close intergenerational proximity. Compared to intergenerational coresidence and long-distance living arrangements, living adjacent to adult children shows the lowest vulnerability, although this conclusion varies across different groups. The optimal intergenerational living distance is within the same district/county but not the same street/township, followed by within the same street/township but not the same village/neighborhood committee. Adult children's emotional support plays a relative mediating role between intergenerational living arrangements and the vulnerability of family care for older adults. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impact of Population Ageing on the Growth of Health Expenditure: An Analysis Based on the Multidimensional Factor Decomposition Method Xu Duo, Wang Xiangzhen, Fu Hongqiao Population Research    2024, 48 (4): 69-83.   Abstract （2236）      PDF （1288KB）（454）       Knowledge map    Save As the population ageing process accelerates, the sustainability of China's health system faces increasingly significant challenges. Therefore, exploring the impact of population ageing on health expenditure is of great importance. Based on data from hospital admission records in Beijing and the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data, the Das Gupta decomposition method is adopted to analyze the contribution of population ageing to the growth of health expenditure. The analysis of hospital admission records from 2016 to 2019 reveals that the change in the age structure contributed 22.44% to the growth of hospitalization expenses. CFPS estimates show similar national results. The impact of population ageing on health expenditure is more pronounced among the elderly, with age structure changes accounting for 24.24%, 37.47%, and 31.51% of the variations of hospitalization expense for patients aged 50-64, 65-79, and 80 years old and above, respectively. Improving healthcare financing, promoting healthy ageing, and enhancing system efficiency are recommended. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Affordability of Childcare Institutions for Children Aged 0-2 and Its Impact on Women's Fertility Intentions in Taiwan, China Zhang Lei, Zhuang Xiaoxu, Fu Shanghao Population Research    2024, 48 (4): 19-32.   Abstract （1430）      PDF （1268KB）（444）       Knowledge map    Save The long-term low fertility intentions in Taiwan,China have led to a widespread and urgent demand for affordable childcare services. However, studies have rarely discussed the measurement of service affordability and its impact on fertility intentions. Based on the data from “Women's Marriage, Fertility and Employment Survey” (WMFES) in Taiwan,China conducted in 2016, this study constructs an affordability index of childcare institutions to analyze the impacts of the achievement of childcare affordability policy goals at the household level and the individual-level childcare affordability on women's fertility intentions. The results show that only 15.36% of women at childbearing age in Taiwan,China intended to have a/another child. The proportion of families that achieve childcare affordability policy goals is about 20%. If this goal is set at 15%, the goal achievement has a significant positive impact on women's intention to continue to have children. For every 1 unit increase in women's own and their spouse's affordability for childcare institutions, the probabilities of continuing to have children increase by 51.02% and 15.23%, respectively. The empirical results and practical experience in Taiwan,China provide valuable insights for the provinces in Mainland China in establishing the pricing system and implementing pricing supervision and management for childcare services. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Who Give Birth to Three Children? Pattern and Determinants of Living Conditions of Three-Child Families Shi Zhilei, Wang Zhang, Wang Yun Population Research    2024, 48 (6): 33-52.   Abstract （2761）      PDF （1469KB）（435）       Knowledge map    Save Based on the three-child family database constructed by the forth “Hubei 100 Counties Fertility Survey(2023)”, this paper describes the characteristics of three-child families, and focuses on analyzing the living conditions of three-child families. The results show that after implementing the Three-child policy, the proportion of third-child fertility is on the rise, the proportion of three-child families with urban hukou and higher education has increased significantly; Boy preference is the main driving force for having a third child; Male breadwinner mode has become a mainstream choice for the three-child families; Parenting, education expenditure pressure and lack of carer are the main difficulties faced by the three-child families. The analysis results of influencing factors on the living conditions of the three-child families show that socioeconomic status is the main factor affecting the survival status of the three-child families. The lower the socioeconomic status, the lower the quality of life and satisfaction of the three-child families. If families or society can provide parenting and education support for parents with three children, their living conditions can be effectively improved. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Chain Urbanization: Living Arrangements of Rural-urban Migrant Families in China Wu Kaize, Wang Wenxiu, Dong Huiling, Cui Can Population Research    2024, 48 (4): 99-114.   Abstract （1937）      PDF （1365KB）（426）       Knowledge map    Save Based on the 2016 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS2016), this study examines the spatial distribution patterns of core family members and housing location choices of rural-urban migrant families. Migrant families have formed diversified living arrangements such as family reunification with homeownership in the destination city, family reunification without homeownership in the destination city, urban-rural split and urban-town split living arrangements. Those with higher human capital, richer family resources and an urge for a marital home are more likely to purchase housing in either the destination city or the hukou registered hometown town or city. Migrant families in super megacities and those with a higher level of economic development in their hukou registered place are more likely to seek housing opportunities in their hukou registered hometown town or city. Under the constraints of reality, migrant families optimize collective familial benefits by allocating resources, such as family members and housing, across diverse spatial domains. This strategy facilitates the urbanization of migrants into cities while also offering them the option to return to their rural hometowns. This implies a multi-stage and step-wise chain urbanization process, which requires a family relay to achieve family reunification and citizenization. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Exploring the Relationship among Population Ageing, Elderly Care Industry Development, and Economic Growth Mu Huaizhong, Zhang Xianzheng Population Research    2025, 49 (1): 85-100.   Abstract （2046）      PDF （1319KB）（415）       Knowledge map    Save Chinese modernization coincides with the acceleration of population ageing, and therefore faces a scientific choice regarding economic development paths and promotion methods. In the context of an ageing population, the elderly care industry will continue to develop, thereby promoting economic growth. Based on China's provincial panel data spanning from 2013 to 2022, this paper analyzes the impact and mechanism of population ageing and the development of the elderly care industry on economic growth. The results show that the deepening of population ageing inhibits economic growth, whereas the development of the elderly care industry promotes economic growth. Mechanism analysis indicates that the development of the elderly care industry plays a crucial regulatory role in the relationship between population ageing and economic growth, which will significantly weaken the negative impact of population ageing on economic growth. Heterogeneity analysis shows that there are significant differences in the relationships among population ageing, development of the elderly care industry, and economic growth in different regions, and the linkage effect between population ageing and the development of the elderly care industry only plays a significant role in regulating economic growth in the western region. It is imperative to promote innovation and development within the elderly care industry, strengthen regional coordinated development, optimize the social security system, implement refined policy management, and achieve coordinated development among population ageing, the elderly care industry, and economic growth. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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New Trends in Population Development, Important Missions for Population Research, and Priority Tasks in Population Work in China Xie Donghong, Duan Chengrong Population Research    2025, 49 (2): 17-31.   Abstract （2552）      PDF （1281KB）（377）       Knowledge map    Save Since the advent of the new era, China's demographic landscape has undergone profound changes, characterized by trends such as a continuous decline in total population, accelerated ageing of the age structure, steady improvement in population quality, significant regional population divergence, and enhanced interethnic interactions. These multifaceted trends have imposed higher demands on population research. As a result, population research should transition from “problem-solving” to “disciplinary foundation-building” and ultimately achieving “governance upgrading.” Responding to the challenges of the era, constructing an independent knowledge system in demography, and advancing innovative governance approaches and systemic transformations with Chinese characteristics have become the important missions of population research in the new era. To this end, population work needs to keep pace with the times. The priority tasks include: integrating data resources and deepening the application of big data technology; improving the fertility support policy system and perfecting the elderly care service system; coordinating educational reform and promoting the innovation of the mechanism for cultivating scientific and technological talents; clarifying the laws of migration transition and strengthening international migration governance; promoting ethnic integration and consolidating the sense of community for Chinese nation. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Population Agglomeration in Six World-Class City Clusters: An Evolutionary Perspective Yin Deting, Shi Yi, Zhao Guoli, Liao Wenwen Population Research    2024, 48 (6): 53-68.   Abstract （1634）      PDF （1422KB）（371）       Knowledge map    Save Recognizing the core commonalities and inherent laws of population development of world-class city clusters is a necessary path to understanding the incubation mechanism of urban agglomerations. Based on the collection of long-term historical population data and regional spatial planning data, we employ Lorentz curve, spatial Gini coefficient and other methods, taking the overall urban agglomeration and central city population growth as observation indicators, to compare the population of six world-class city clusters, and changes in scale, agglomeration characteristics and evolutionary process. The population of the six world-class city clusters has shown a common “life-cycle” development process, which is manifested in the continuous strengthening of population resource advantages, the hierarchical differentiation of population spatial structure, the prominent siphoning role of the central city, and the gradual narrowing of the gap between the total population of the primary city and the central city. In the process of expansion and contraction of different types of cities, urban agglomerations generally experience a transformation from single-core polarization in the first city to multi-point aggregation in the central city, the continuous strengthening of the urban agglomeration circle pattern, and the dual stability of the urban agglomeration order pattern. “Symbiotic” rather than “zero-sum game” inter-city agglomeration of population has become the main driving factor for the population development of world-class city clusters. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Multilayer Factors and Multimorbidity Resilience among Older Adults in Rural China: A Longitudinal Study in Anhui Province Li Shuzhuo, Guo Jin, Wang Jie Population Research    2024, 48 (5): 31-49.   Abstract （1386）      PDF （1316KB）（361）       Knowledge map    Save Multimorbidity poses a global public health challenge. The resilience of older adults with multimorbidity reflects their ability to maintain a healthy life. Therefore, examining the factors influencing the resilience contributes to achieving healthy ageing. This study uses data from the seventh and eighth waves of Anhui longitudinal survey conducted by the Institute for Population and Development Studies of Xi'an Jiaotong University to explore the influencing factors of the resilience of older adults with multimorbidity and its changes. The findings indicate that over 40% of rural older adults suffer from multimorbidity. Older adults who are younger and have more children are associated with higher resilience in the cross-sectional analysis. Socioeconomic status, exercise frequency, religious belief, self-reported health, old-age care institutions in the community, and the natural environment affect the resilience of older adults with multimorbidity, both in cross-sectional and longitudinal changes. Increased public sports services in the community can contribute to resilience improvement. These findings suggest that there should be a shift from prognosis to prevention and an increase in age-friendly construction for older adults to promote health and well-being in later life. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Existence of Population Cushion in International Industrial Division and Its Implications for China Wang Jinying, Zhang Jin Population Research    2025, 49 (2): 32-49.   Abstract （1334）      PDF （1315KB）（357）       Knowledge map    Save Based on previous literature, this study elucidates the influence of population size on international industrial division and its mechanisms. Drawing on data from the World Bank and the World Trade Organization, this study further examines the impact of population size on countries' or regions' participation in the international industrial division. The results show that population size significantly promotes participation, dependence, and competitiveness in international industrial division, indicating a “room for maneuver” of population size. Countries or regions with larger populations are less dependent on the international industrial division and exhibit stronger competitiveness, while smaller countries or regions are more reliant on the international industrial division. In face of the long-term population decline, China should leverage its vast population and territory to capitalize on the room for maneuver in population size. Deepening domestic industrial division, enhancing productivity, and maintaining a complete industrial system could help improve participation and competitiveness in international industrial division, thereby promoting high-quality economic development. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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China-Specific Factors Affecting Low Fertility Zhai Zhenwu, Huang Zhuo, Zhang Yiyang Population Research    2025, 49 (3): 52-65.   Abstract （3909）      PDF （1148KB）（357）       Knowledge map    Save Diverging from patterns observed in developed countries, China has experienced a uniquely rapid fertility decline occurring at an earlier socioeconomic development level than would be predicted. Based on data from a special survey on groups who remain unmarried, childless, or have few children in China, this study identifies three distinctive factors contributing to China's ultra-low fertility: childcare challenges, education anxiety, and housing cost burden. Against the backdrop of a rapid “refamilialization” of caregiving responsibilities, the nurturing capacity of families has weakened while parental obligations have intensified. The intersection of traditional values emphasizing education and an intensely competitive selection system subjects parents to growing pressure and responsibilities in their children's education. Meanwhile, population concentration, unequal housing renter-owner rights, and inadequate housing security have sustained high housing costs. These factors significantly increase the financial, time, and psychological costs associated with raising children, resulting in suppressed fertility intentions. Effective pronatalist policies should remove barriers to fertility decision-making and target these three constraints unique to China's childbearing-age population. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Effect of Social Activities on the Consumption of the Young Old Sheng Yinan, Shang Jiajia Population Research    2024, 48 (4): 84-98.   Abstract （1401）      PDF （1268KB）（340）       Knowledge map    Save With the cohort replacement and rapid growth of older population, the young older adults have become the main force driving older adults' consumption, gaining growing importance in overall residential consumption. Based on data from the 2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), this study empirically examines the impact of social activities on the consumption of the young older adults. Results show that the diversity of social activities and the frequency of social participation significantly increase consumption levels, and contribute to the upgrading of consumption patterns. The participation in social activities of the young older adults weakens the negative effect of early family economic disadvantages on consumption levels. Furthermore, the effects of social activities are more pronounced in increasing the consumption levels of the young older adults who are in areas with a higher inclination toward cultural services. In light of these findings, the study advocates for increased investment in public cultural services, establishment of diverse social platforms, and encouragement of the young older adults to engage in diverse and frequent social activities. Simultaneously, it is important to regulate the development of industries catering to older adults to diversify their consumption patterns and unlock their consumption potentials. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Inter-provincial Mobility and Distribution Changes of the Unique Ethnic Minorities in Yunnan: Based on Census Data Luo Chun Population Research    2025, 49 (1): 70-84.   Abstract （1740）      PDF （1304KB）（324）       Knowledge map    Save The unique ethnic minorities in Yunnan refer to the “indigenous peoples” who have lived in Yunnan for generations. Before the 1980s, almost all of these ethnic groups resided in Yunnan Province. With the reform and opening up and increased population mobility throughout the country, these minority populations began to migrate outside of Yunnan province, ushering in an era of integration into the broader Chinese nation. Census data show that by 2020, the proportion of the population living in Yunnan among the 15 unique ethnic minorities nationwide has dropped to 88.93%, which is 10.09 percentage points lower than that in 1982. It was found that the inter-provincial migration of these minorities preferred Guizhou and Sichuan province, followed by Guangdong, Zhejiang, and other eastern developed provinces. According to the study, the leading factors contributing to the continuous increase in inter-provincial migration among Yunnan's ethnic minorities are not only the rise in population migration, but also the natural growth of these ethnic groups outside the province, as well as shifts in population distribution between provinces and among ethnic groups due to changes in administrative divisions and ethnic composition. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impact of Internet Use Behaviors on Mental Health of Middle-aged and Older Adults and the Mediating Role of Social Relationships Liu Tao, Gao Huizhi, Wang Yiran Population Research    2025, 49 (2): 81-98.   Abstract （1985）      PDF （1323KB）（315）       Knowledge map    Save In an era characterized by both rapid development in information technology and population ageing, internet use has become a significant factor influencing the mental health of middle-aged and older adults. Using the nationally representative data, this study examines the mechanisms and age heterogeneity of internet use behaviors, including internet access, duration of use, and usage types, on mental health outcomes. This study found that using the Internet can reduce depression tendencies among middle-aged and older adults, with the expansion of social relationships serving as a mediating mechanism. Furthermore, the positive impact of longer internet use duration on mental health is achieved through the expansion of social relationships. Usage types exhibit divergent effects. Video entertainment type is associated with lower depression tendencies. In-depth informational use leads to a higher risk of depression, though social relationships mitigate this negative effect. Additionally, the impact of different Internet use behaviors on depressive tendencies varies among different age groups. The results provided empirical support for developing targeted mental health intervention strategies and optimizing the mental health service system under the Internet environment. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The What and the How of Strategy: The National Strategy of Actively Responding to Population Ageing in the Process of China's Modernization Hu Zhan, Sun Xin Population Research    2024, 48 (5): 3-16.   Abstract （1642）      PDF （1329KB）（314）       Knowledge map    Save The National Strategy of Actively Responding to Population Ageing represents a significant effort to build consensus and integrate resources to enhance governance in an ageing society. This strategy innovatively expands upon the WHO's “Active Ageing” framework, with differences in conceptual meaning, objectives, and structural characteristics. Since its elevation to a national strategy, there has been a notable transformation in governance perspectives and patterns. With the proposal of China's Modernization, the strategy has gained new guidance. Therefore, it is essential to use Chinese modernization as a framework to re-evaluate this strategy, identifying its attribute trajectory and essential prerequisites. We should promote high-quality population development to optimize implementation conditions, strengthen the modernization of national governance to consolidate mechanisms, and effectively extend and realize new development momentum. Currently, it is critical to improve population governance, embrace an active ageing perspective, and create a diversified governance resource framework to expedite the enhancement of the implementation environment for the national ageing strategy. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Patterns and Determinants of Living Alone of the Young Adults in China Duan Yuanyuan, Chen Wei Population Research    2025, 49 (4): 66-82.   Abstract （2551）      PDF （1274KB）（306）       Knowledge map    Save In the context of rising prevalence of living alone among young adults, this study uses one-per-thousand sample data from the 2000, 2010, and 2020 population censuses to examine trends and determinants of living alone among young adults aged from 20 to 49 in China over the past two decades. Decomposition methods are employed to assess the contributions of marriage behavior, population mobility, and solo living feasibility to the period trends and disparities by gender and place of residence. Results indicate that improved solo living feasibility and population mobility were the dominant drivers of the rising prevalence of living alone among young adults. Gender differences in solo living feasibility and marriage behaviors explain higher prevalence of living alone among men than among women, while enhanced mobility primarily accounts for higher prevalence of living alone in urban areas than in rural areas. Across the life course, mobility and delayed marriage drive rising prevalence of living alone during early adulthood, whereas solo living feasibility dominates in middle adulthood. Family-related social policies must address future trends and the heterogeneous trajectories of living alone. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impact of Shared Responsibilities of Family Childrearing on the Intention to Have Another Child: On the Possible Effects of Fertility Support Policies Yang Xueyan, Li Wanxin Population Research    2025, 49 (3): 82-97.   Abstract （1379）      PDF （1158KB）（299）       Knowledge map    Save Based on the 2021 survey data on fertility and childcare service intentions of childbearing-age parents, the study found that the sharing model of family childrearing responsibility is mainly divided into two categories, namely the “male as breadwinner” model and the “dual earner-dual carer” model. Compared to the “male as breadwinner” model, the “dual earner-dual carer” model can significantly reduces the intention to have another child of childbearing-age gruop. The paid maternity leave policy (time-support policy) exerts a negative moderating effect, enhancing the negative impact of the “dual earner-dual carer” model on the intention to have another child, while the tax reduction policy (economic-support policy) plays the opposite effect, weakening the negative impact of the “dual earner-dual carer” model on the intention to have another child. The childcare services (service-support policy) have not produced significant effects. These findings suggest that the government should optimize the fertility support policies by fully considering the sharing model of family childrearing responsibility, in order to reduce childrearing pressure and promote fertility intention through reasonable division of childrearing responsibility among different subjects. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Impact of Hukou System Reform on Fertility Decisions of Migrants: A Public Service Perspective Song Yueping, Wang Zhili, Wu Hantao Population Research    2025, 49 (1): 101-116.   Abstract （1644）      PDF （1318KB）（295）       Knowledge map    Save Utilizing the 2014 Hukou reform as a quasi-natural experiment and applying the difference-in-differences design to the 2019 National Population and Family Dynamic Monitoring Survey data, this study examines the impact of Hukou reform on fertility intentions and behaviors of migrant women and their mechanisms in China. The results show that the reform significantly increased fertility intentions and behaviors, particularly among those who got married after the reform and those with low educational levels. Further analysis reveals three mechanisms: improved fertility rights and benefits through free prenatal and newborn health services, enhanced employment protection via maternity leave policies, and transformed attitudes towards reproduction. This study expands the research perspective on how fertility support influences fertility decisions, offering important policy implications for Hukou reform and migrant population development. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impact of Children's Gender Composition on Couples' Fertility Motivations: An Analysis from the Perspective of Post-Fertility Evaluation Shen Tanming Population Research    2025, 49 (4): 117-132.   Abstract （931）      PDF （1194KB）（293）       Knowledge map    Save Fertility motivations are at the forefront of the decision to have a child. However, the experience of raising sons and daughters constantly reframes couples' fertility motivations. We construct a four-dimensional analytical framework of fertility motivations. Using 2020 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data and Ordered Probit Model, we analyze the impact of children's gender composition on couples' fertility motivations. The results show that “Familyism” and “Economic Utility” motivations are more pronounced among husbands than wives. “Individualism” and “Emotional Utility” motivations are stronger among wives than husbands. There exists “Gender Equality Dilemma” in residents' fertility concepts. From the perspective of children's “gender-number” structure, among couples with the same type of structure, those with more children have a higher comprehensive score of fertility motivations. From the perspective of children's “gender-age” structure, having both sons and daughters reinforces traditional gender norms and increases satisfaction with sibling structures featuring an elder brother-younger sister dynamic. From the perspective of children's “gender-economic” structure, being economically a family unit with a son or daughter is positively correlated with assessment of fertility motivations in the individual-economic dimension for wives or husbands respectively. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impact of Expected Effects of Fertility Support Policies on Fertility Plans among the Childbearing-Age Population Yang Fan, Wang Mingming Population Research    2025, 49 (3): 66-81.   Abstract （1786）      PDF （1185KB）（290）       Knowledge map    Save Fertility support policies are essential for addressing low fertility rates, and it is crucial to promptly evaluate their effects on fertility. Based on the data from a specialized survey in China, this study adopts the Logit model to examine the impact of expected policy effects on fertility plans across various parental statuses and their mechanisms. The results show that positive expectations of policy effects significantly promote fertility plans. Paid parental leave and universal childcare are particularly effective for married but childless individuals. Paid parental leave and childcare subsidies also support fertility plans among parents with one child. The impacts of expected policy effects are heterogeneous across marital statuses and socioeconomic backgrounds. A positive fertility concept positively moderates the impact of policy effects. Favorable expectations for multiple policies can generate synergistic effects in promoting fertility plans. The findings suggest that we should publicize fertility support policies, enhance policy targeting, highlight the power of culture, and improve policy synergy. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impact of Intergenerational Relationships on Cybersecurity Awareness and Behaviors among Middle-aged and Older Adults Jin Yongai, Liu Yuhong, Xia Fangzhou Population Research    2025, 49 (2): 64-80.   Abstract （1558）      PDF （1283KB）（283）       Knowledge map    Save With the widespread use of the Internet among middle-aged and older adults, online safety has become an important issue in the digital era. Using data from the Survey on Digital Division and Inclusion of Older Adults in China, this study reveals that middle-aged and older adults with closer relationships with their children tend to have higher cybersecurity awareness and engage in safer online behaviors. Further analysis reveals that digital knowledge transfer from children and subjective well-being mediate the relationship between intergenerational closeness and older adults' cybersecurity awareness and behaviors. Specifically, a closer intergenerational relationship increases the likelihood of middle-aged and older adults receiving risk-prevention information from their children and leads to higher subjective well-being, thereby enhancing their cybersecurity awareness and promoting safer online behaviors. The findings deepen our understanding of intergenerational relationships as a potential resource in the digital era. Policymakers aiming to improve digital literacy among middle-aged and older adults should consider the role of intergenerational ties and actively involve younger generations, fostering harmonious intergenerational relationships and encouraging “active digital reverse mentoring.” Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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An Exploration of the “Name” and the “Substance” of Classical Demographic Concepts and Indicators: A Case Study of “Infant Mortality Rate” Zhai Zhenwu, Huang Zhuo Population Research    2025, 49 (6): 3-16.   Abstract （2625）      PDF （1432KB）（281）       Knowledge map    Save Due to disparities in national realities and linguistic systems between China and the West, the introduction and application of demographic indicators borrowed from Western scholarship often suffer from problems such as mechanical adoption and inconsistencies between name and substance. These problems are mainly manifested in literal translation, conceptual over-generalization, inconsistent indicator terminology, and discrepancies between indicator names and their computational definitions. A typical example is the term “Infant Mortality Rate”, which has long been rendered in Chinese as “婴儿死亡率”. However, this translation is misleading. By tracing the historical development of “Infant Mortality Rate” and examining the original expressions in English-language demographic literature, we find that terms denoting similar mortality indicators are strictly differentiated in wording when referring to “rates” or “probabilities”, and that all major computational approaches to the “Infant Mortality Rate” adhere to the core principle of probability. However, this essential distinction has been completely obscured in its Chinese rendering. We propose that terms prone to misuse or conceptual confusion should be localized and refined in accordance with China's empirical realities. Such efforts are essential to ensuring the accuracy of classical demographic concepts and indicators in the Chinese context. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Can Digital Economy Affect the Career Transition of Low-skilled Workers? Yuan Xin, Wang Lijing, Fang Shoulin Population Research    2024, 48 (5): 82-97.   Abstract （1198）      PDF （1265KB）（280）       Knowledge map    Save The digital economy has a profound impact on employment. It provides more opportunities to low-skilled workers. Based on China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of digital economy on the career transition of low-skilled workers by employing a binary Logit model. The findings indicate that digital economy significantly increases the odds ratio of their career transition of low-skilled workers. Notably, low-skilled workers who are from agricultural households or located in the eastern and central regions experience a substantial boost in the career transition. The study identifies two key mechanisms driving this impact: employment effects and income effects. Moreover, low-skilled workers with higher level of capability or training experiences are more likely to transition to new careers due to the digital economy. Digital economy enhances the occupational reputation of low-skilled workers, and promotes their advancement into high and medium-low prestige occupations. Strengthening employment services, providing entrepreneurship policies, and offering skill trainings are recommended. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Changing Scale and Structure of China's Floating Population in the Context of Negative Population Growth Zhou Hao Population Research    2025, 49 (3): 20-35.   Abstract （1413）      PDF （1247KB）（269）       Knowledge map    Save Under the background of negative population growth, whether the scale of China's floating population will continue to grow and how its structure will change in the future are related to the construction goals of relevant social systems. Based on the data of the fifth, sixth, and seventh national population censuses, age structure standardization and decomposition methods are used to analyze the relative role of structure effect, scale effect, and intensity effect in the change of China's floating population in the past 20 years, and population projections are used to examine the future trend of the floating population. Research has found that the increase in the size of China's floating population in the past 20 years is mainly due to scale and intensity effects. Among them, the increase in the size of the urban floating population is mainly due to scale effects, while the increase in the rural floating population is mainly due to intensity effects; The structure effect has always had a negative impact, with the negative effect in the last 10 years being greater than that in the first 10 years. This negative structure effect shows similar behavior among different types of floating populations. Assuming the age-specific migration rate remains unchanged, the size of China's floating population will continue to decline in the future, and its age and urban-rural structure will undergo significant changes. The structure effect can be regarded as an intrinsic factor of natural growth, and the study of China's floating population must be situated within the context of negative population growth and population ageing. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Temporal-Spatial Pattern of One-Person Households in China: Three Characteristics and Influencing Factors Li Ting, Hua Jie, Duan Chengrong Population Research    2025, 49 (1): 20-36.   Abstract （1626）      PDF （1526KB）（260）       Knowledge map    Save Exploring the temporal-spatial evolution of one-person households (OPH) promotes the understanding of the transformation of families in China. Utilizing the 1‰ sampling data from the population censuses, this study aims to describe the temporal-spatial patterns of OPH in China and the related influencing factors over the past 20 years. Results reveal three main characteristics: the eastern coastal economic belt, developed cities, and the Qinghai-Tibet region exhibit relatively higher OPH percentages; rapid growth initially occurred in the eastern and northeastern regions before spreading nationwide; overall growth is primarily driven by young adults and then by older adults. The GTWR model further indicates that the modernization process, along with China's demographic transformation, has shaped this pattern, influenced by both subjective willingness and passive choices. In light of this new trend, efforts should focus on promoting family-oriented internal migration, alleviating the youth marriage squeeze, and enhancing the pension system in a multi-dimensional manner. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Effect of Number of Children on Expected Retirement Age of Parents: A Fertility Policy Adjustment Perspective Xu Yingdong, Yu Xiao Population Research    2025, 49 (1): 37-52.   Abstract （1650）      PDF （1353KB）（258）       Knowledge map    Save After the official implementation of the policy to gradually raise the statutory retirement age, we utilize data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and employ the number of children of parents' siblings as an exclusive instrumental variable to empirically test the fertility policy heterogeneous treatment effect of the number of children on parents' expected retirement age based on the generalized Roy model. The findings reveal a delay effect of having multiple children on parents' expected retirement age. As the constraint imposed by the fertility policy on having multiple children increases, the effect becomes more pronounced. Simulation results regarding fertility policy adjustments suggest that, following the Universal Two-Child Policy and Three-Child Fertility Policy, the increase in the number of parents having multiple children further strengthens the delay effect of having multiple children on parents' expected retirement age. In light of this, governments and employers may consider taking into account employees' family situations regarding children, so as to refine the detailed implementation measures for employees' flexible early or delayed retirement. Meanwhile, governments at all levels should accelerate the improvement of the fertility support policy system and incentive mechanisms. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Employment Effect of Public Data Openness Wang Chunrui, Li Enji, Peng Lanling, Liu Jiaqiang Population Research    2024, 48 (6): 3-17.   Abstract （1612）      PDF （1252KB）（248）       Knowledge map    Save Public data, as an essential resource for government services, significantly contributes to promoting high-quality and full employment. This study uses panel data from cities at prefecture level and above to explore the impact of public data openness on urban employment. Based on the characteristics of public data, this paper explains the impact mechanism of public data openness on urban employment scale and structure from three aspects: information flow integration, technological progress promotion, and business environment optimization. The study reveals that public data openness increases employment. The impact is heterogeneous, being more pronounced in cities with a Chief Data Officer and more advanced digital infrastructure. Men, highly skilled workers, and those in secondary and tertiary sectors benefit more from this openness. Due to the coexistence of the “Technology Diffusion Effect” and the “Siphon Effect,” the impact of neighboring provinces is not statistically significant. The findings suggest that we should further strengthen the opening and development of public data, empower the construction of public employment service system with data, create new scenarios of diversified employment services, and promote high-quality and adequate employment. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics