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Pronatalist Policies: Central Government Responsibilities and Top-Level Design

Du Yang, Cheng Jie, Qu Yue

Population Research 2024, 48 (2): 3-16.

Abstract （86）

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Due to the positive correlation between population size and technological innovation, there exists a positive externality in fertility, which is intertemporal and inseparable across regions. Since the benefits of high fertility are reaped at the national level, the central government has the principal responsibilities to implement pronatalist policies. Policy design deviating this principle would distort the behaviors of local governments. In this context, a well-designed pronatalist policy should clearly define the responsibilities between the central and the local governments to achieve a mechanism with incentive compatibility at both the micro and macro level. The core of pronatalist policy is to resolve the conflicts between childbirth and female labor market participation and to prioritize those that both facilitate childbearing and improve women's competitiveness in the labor market. Personal income tax deduction is one of the policies that meets the above criteria. The top-level design should complete the policy framework to effectively include women of childbearing age and implement targeted policies based on the characteristics of different groups.

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The Situation, Influencing Factors, and Policy Responses to Singlehood, Childlessness, and Low Fertility in China: Findings from a Specialized Survey

Yang Fan, Guo Pinrui, Liu Jianan

Population Research 2024, 48 (2): 30-43.

Abstract （266）

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Changes in people's marital and fertility intentions and behaviors play a significant role in declining fertility rates. Based on data from a specialized survey, this paper investigates the intentions and determinants of marriage and fertility within distinct childbearing-age groups, concerning non-marriage or delayed marriage, childlessness or delayed childbearing, and low fertility, under the background of current fertility policies. It finds that the majority of individuals in these groups still wish to marry and have children. The main reasons for the divergence between their intentions and behaviors are the rising costs of marriage and childbearing, including economic and time costs. Furthermore, the impact of cultural and public opinion cannot be overlooked. Regarding the Three-child policy and supporting measures, over twenty percent of the married respondents consider them effective in boosting childbearing intentions. Reducing educational costs, providing child-rearing subsidies, and ensuring parental leave are the common policy demands. Therefore, it is crucial to reduce the costs of child-rearing for families through diversified economic support, establish a comprehensive lifecycle marital and childbearing support policy system, and convey positive marital and childbearing concepts through cultural development.

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Spatial Patterns and Determinants of Population Flow Networks in China: Based on Four Types of Population Flows

Zhang Yaojun, Chen Yun, Wu Xiwei, Qi Jinghan

Population Research 2024, 48 (2): 118-132.

Abstract （112）

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Studying population flow patterns is essential for comprehending regional population changes and economic and social development trends. Using data from the sixth and seventh national population censuses to classify China's interprovincial population flows into four types: rural-urban, rural-rural, urban-urban, and urban-rural, this paper analyzes the spatial characteristics of population flow networks and their influencing factors using a spatial autoregressive negative binomial model. The results show that: The proportion of rural-urban and urban-urban population flows has increased, while the proportion of rural-rural population flows has decreased. Rural-rural and rural-urban population flows tend to move from west to east, while urban-urban and urban-rural population flows are diverse and bi-directional. China's population center is shifting from a single city (province) to an urban agglomeration. While economic factors play a significant role in rural-urban and rural-rural population flows, the factors influencing urban-rural and urban-urban population flows are complex and diverse. The degree of influence of economic factors on these flows is weakening.

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China's Population Quality to Complement Population Quantity: Intrinsic Mechanism and Realization Path

Hu Yaoling, Xu Yangyang

Population Research 2024, 48 (1): 22-39.

Abstract （275）

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Using data from censuses and statistical yearbooks between 2000 and 2020 and World Population Prospects 2022, this study constructs a comprehensive evaluation model for labor force quality to estimate the nominal labor supply and effective labor supply equivalent in China and analyze the feasibility and realization path of population quality complementing population quantity. The results show that China's nominal labor supply will drop from 744.7 million in 2020 to 565.9 million in 2050. Although the effective labor supply equivalent is higher than the nominal labor supply, it is constrained by the decline of the labor force. The effective labor supply equivalent will peak at 752.9 million in 2028 and then drop to 643.1 million in 2050. By improving the relative labor quality through educational reform and health interventions, the year of the peak can be postponed until 2032, and it can remain over 714 million before 2050, achieving the population quality complementing quantity in the short term. In the long term, fully leveraging the compensatory effect of population quality cannot be achieved without a certain population size. It is necessary to strengthen the policy system further to support fertility.

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Internet Use and the Life of Older Adults Aged 50 and above in Digital Era:Findings from a National Survey

Jin Yongai, Hu Wenbo, Feng Yang

Population Research 2024, 48 (1): 40-55.

Abstract （396）

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The swift rise in China's ageing population coincides with the rapid advancement of informatization, presenting unparalleled opportunities and challenges in addressing China's ageing issues. From 2010 to 2022, the percentage of internet users within the 50-59 age group escalated from 11.1% to 73.5%, while in the 60 and above age group, it surged from 4.9% to 54.5%. The examination of how internet use impacts the lives of older adults using the latest empirical data has gained increasing significance. Key findings are as follows: It highlights a profound integration of the internet into the lives of older adults; there exists considerable diversity in internet usage patterns among older adults; it remains crucial to recognize the persistent digital divide among older adults, and elevating cybersecurity awareness among them is paramount to safeguard against potential online threats; furthermore, moderate internet use has shown to positively impact healthy ageing and contribute to the subjective well-being of older individuals. These findings underscore the urgent need to create a digital society that accommodates older adults. This necessitates concerted efforts from governments, enterprises, communities, families, and the older adults themselves. Collective participation and collaborative work are pivotal in cultivating an environment that supports and empowers this demographic within the digital landscape.

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Artificial Intelligence, Labor Demand, and Human Capital Investments

Liu Jianan, Xing Chunbing

Population Research 2024, 48 (1): 68-84.

Abstract （232）

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Based on the data from the population census and sampling survey, this paper constructs instrumental variable regression models to study how the use of industrial robots affects labor demand for workers with different skills, and how the demand shocks affect individuals' human capital investments in local labor markets under the development of artificial intelligence. The study finds that the use of industrial robots has substitution effects for low-skilled non-agricultural workers, while it creates job opportunities for high-skilled non-agricultural workers. The induced demand shocks further affect individuals' human capital investments. Specifically, the substitution of employment of the low-skilled significantly increases the probability of an individual entering regular college, and the boost of employment of the high-skilled significantly increases the probability of an individual entering both high school and regular college. However, both effects discourage human capital investments in vocational education. The results indicate that the popularization of artificial intelligence could promote human capital investments, improving population quality and mitigating the negative impact of population decline. Meanwhile, future policies should improve and support the integration of vocational education with the regular educational system to adapt to the labor demand changes brought by the artificial intelligence development.

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Status and Changes of the Rural Children Left Behind in China: 2010-2020

Lyu Lidan, Mei Ziying, Li Rui, Li Shu, Yan Fang, Wang Xu, Duan Chengrong

Population Research 2024, 48 (1): 103-117.

Abstract （852）

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The phenomenon and issues of rural children left behind (RCLB) in China are affecting the flow of human capital between urban and rural areas. This paper clarifies the definition and steps for identifying RCLB, and uses the micro-data of the 2010 and 2020 Population Censuses to analyze relevant characteristics and changing trends over the past ten years. The analysis includes the following aspects: population size of RCLB, their age and sex structure, regional distribution, living arrangements, and educational development. The findings show that the population size of RCLB remained large, and the likelihood of being left-behind was closely related to age and sex. An increasing proportion of RCLB were cared for by grandparents as more mothers migrated between 2010 and 2020. RCLB no longer had any advantage in education opportunity compared with the average level of rural children. Over-age attendance was more noticeable among RCLB than the average level of rural children. We should continue to pay attention to the issue of RCLB and address its root causes.

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Can Internet Use Promote the Social Adaptation Level of Older Adults? An Analysis Based on the Perspective of Different Usages

Du Peng, Luo Yesheng

Population Research 2023, 47 (6): 3-20.

Abstract （603）

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There are distinct internal differences in the use of internet among older adults, and different ways of using internet can also have different impacts on them. From a typological perspective, using data from the 2020 China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS), this study analyzes the heterogeneous impact of different types of internet usage among Chinese older adults on their social adaptation level. It is found that using internet can significantly promote the social adaptation level of older adults, but the degree of promotion depends on the type of internet usage. The comprehensive type benefits the most from Internet use, while the social-news type benefits the least. However, the difference among the social-news type, social type, and social-entertainment type is not significant. Among the older adults who access internet, there is a “J-shaped” connection between the hierarchy of internet usage and the social adaptation level of older adults. In addition, older adults with higher level of education benefit more from using Internet. To strengthen the construction of a digitally inclusive ageing society, this study suggests that precise measures should be taken to cope with the differences in internet usage among older adults, strengthen cyberspace governance, and improve the digital and information literacy of older adults.

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The Working Life Expectancy of the Older Population in Rural China and Its Regional Differences from 2010 to 2020

Zhang Wenjuan, Chen Lu

Population Research 2023, 47 (6): 21-34.

Abstract （210）

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Based on the data from the population censuses and the 1% population sampling survey, this paper analyzes the trend of working life expectancy and its regional differences of the rural older population in China from 2010 to 2020. The results indicate that the proportion of working people among the rural older population has been declining since 2010, and their working life expectancy has decreased steadily while their non-working life expectancy has increased. The study also reveals significant gender and regional disparities in the working life expectancy of the rural older population: older males, and those residing in agriculturally developed and population-outflowing areas have a longer working life expectancy and less leisure time in their later lives. There are five typical patterns of working life expectancy extension for the rural older population, which are closely linked to the living standards, willingness to work, labor capacity, and working environment of the older population in the region. The research serves as an inspiration for authorities and society to empower rural older workers while providing them with a well-designed and powerful economic safety net.

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The Limitations and Future Prospects of Formal Demography in Contemporary China

Wang Xuehui, Peng Xizhe

Population Research 2023, 47 (6): 65-77.

Abstract （192）

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With the socioeconomic development and transformation, China's demographic changes have showed various unique cultural characteristics and strong contemporary features. Many concepts, indicators and theories in formal demography can hardly be used to accurately analyze and interpret China's population development. The main problems lie in the inadequate temporal relevance of some demographic analytical indicators and their lack of effective localization. These indicators include those in the fields of population ageing, population migration, and family studies. The Chinese path of modernization and rapid demographic transition has provided rich empirical scenarios for the innovative developments in demography. The future development of Chinese demography should be based on the inheritance of the formal demography achievement and the incorporation of the new features in the new era. Meanwhile, it should also follow the principles of topicality, localization, expansion and internationalization to innovate or reconstruct the formal demographic index system and theoretical frameworks, continuously promote the establishment of an autonomous knowledge system in Chinese demography and contribute Chinese wisdom to the development of demography worldwide.

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Trends and Characteristics of Male Marriage Squeeze in China

Guo Zhen, Yang Liuqing, Liang Haili, Li Shuzhuo

Population Research 2023, 47 (6): 91-106.

Abstract （333）

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Using data from China's 7th Census and previous census data since 1990, this paper analyzes the trends and characteristics of marriage squeeze among men in recent decades. Results show that the marriage squeezes among men and its consequences have significantly manifested. The sex ratio of marriageable population has sharply increased from 2010 to 2020, and it is projected to peak at 116.13 by 2036. Unlike in the past, when the phenomenon was primarily concentrated in socio-economically underdeveloped regions, the surplus of never married men in economically developed areas with high urbanization rates becomes apparent. The marriage squeeze among men leads to substantial gender disparities in first marriage probabilities, with significantly lower probabilities of first marriage for men compared to women and a substantial increase in the expected number of years for never married men to get married. The scale of rural involuntary bachelors remains elevated, with urban areas experiencing a growing population of involuntary bachelors. The urban never married men aged 45 and above increased from 1.76 million to 3.88 million from 2010 to 2020. Involuntary bachelors have relatively limited economic resources, increased reliance on minimum subsistence allowance, and a rising proportion of unhealthy and solitary life in old age.

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The Impact of Delayed Childbearing on Children's Health Development in Post-transitional China: Evidence from the CFPS2010-2020

Niu Jianlin

Population Research 2023, 47 (5): 3-17.

Abstract （465）

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Delayed childbearing has been found detrimental to children's health. While post-transitional China is observing a substantial increase of childbearing postponement, this study aims to investigate health impact of this trend on the next generation. Using data from the 2010-2020 China Family Panel Studies（CFPS）, this study examines the multidimensional health differences related to both maternal and paternal ages in post-transitional China. The results show that delayed childbearing contributes negatively to children's birth weight, their physical development in childhood, and general health in adolescence. These health impacts operate partly through congenital factors, as manifested in the greater risk of low birth weight, and partly via the related family environments and resources. These findings highlight the need to incorporate health considerations into decisions about childbearing, both for health promotion and for sustained population development.

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High-quality Population Development, New Human Capital, and High-quality Employment

Yu Xiao, Wang Qihui

Population Research 2023, 47 (5): 59-73.

Abstract （320）

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The overall quality—scientific and cultural quality, health quality, and ideological and moral quality—is the key to high-quality population development. Based on the three-level theory of personality, this paper constructs a comprehensive analysis framework of non-cognitive ability and verifies the impact of non-cognitive ability, such as ideological and moral quality and personality quality, on high-quality employment of workers from the perspective of the new human capital theory. Main conclusions: Workers with higher scores in emotional stability, conscientiousness, and openness personality traits will achieve greater external career success, while those with higher scores in conscientiousness, extroversion, agreeableness, and openness will experience higher internal career achievement. A sense of successful value helps to enhance a worker's external and internal career accomplishments. Workers with higher scores in industrious experience will obtain higher internal career achievement. Non-cognitive ability maximizes personal utility through career matching, and also affects workers' career achievements by increasing occupational investment and accumulating social capital.

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China's Low Fertility and Provincial Differences: Fertility Index-based Observation

Song Jian, Hu Bo, Jiang Chunyun, Chen Wenqi

Population Research 2023, 47 (5): 74-87.

Abstract （463）

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Focusing on the phenomenon that childbearing-age people "do not want to give birth, ""dare not to give birth," and "are unable to give birth," we comprehensively consider the three dimensions of fertility—intention, conditions, and structure, build a fertility composite index according to the relevant theories of low fertility rate, observe and analyze the current situation of low fertility rate in China, and make inter-provincial comparisons. We find that the average national fertility composite index is 0.492. The fertility condition index is the lowest, reflecting the constraints on fertility caused by employment and income factors and lack of fertility support. The structural characteristics of the childbearing-age people are consistent in all provinces, while the fertility intention and fertility conditions are spatially heterogeneous. There is a positive association between fertility index and total fertility rate. With a 0.1 unit increase in fertility index, total fertility rate increases by 0.286 units. Improving fertility intention can help effectively increase the total fertility rate; however, the changes in fertility conditions and fertility structure have not been able to effectively promote the total fertility rate. It is thus necessary to establish, improve, and implement long-term fertility support in order to reshape the fertility intention and change the behavior of the population.

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Postponement of Marriage and Childbearing in China during 1990-2020: Trends and Characteristics

Zhang Xianling, Sheng Yi'nan

Population Research 2023, 47 (5): 88-101.

Abstract （701）

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Using the census and sampling survey data between 1990 and 2020, this study examines the postponement of marriage and childbearing in China. The results show a persistent increase in the mean age at first marriage in urban and rural China. However, the postponement of the first marriage started earlier in urban areas than rural areas during 2000-2010. The postponement of first marriage in rural areas accelerated during 2010-2020. This led to a widening and then narrowing trend of the urban-rural gap. Age at first marriage differs across educational attainment; women and men with higher education significantly postpone their first marriage. Men with higher education also show a lower likelihood of staying unmarried for life. The curve of age-specific fertility rate for women at childbearing age has shifted downwards to the right, and the peak childbearing age of urban women has shifted more than that of rural women. The mean age at childbearing has been increasing, with a more rapid speed in 2000-2010 and then a slower one in 2010-2020. The mean age at childbearing of each parity has been postponed, especially for the first and second births. Women with different educational levels all postpone childbearing, and those with higher education levels show larger postponement.

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When Fertility Support Policies are Effective？ Gender Equality, the Combination of Fertility Support Policies, and the Rebound of Total Fertility Rate in 27 Countries

Zhang Yang, Li Lingchun

Population Research 2023, 47 (4): 3-19.

Abstract （944）

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China has witnessed a low total fertility rate for decades; thus, it is imperative to build a fertility support policy system based on the experience of other lowfertility countries. Drawing on a constructed longitudinal dataset, we investigate the associations of different fertility support policy combinations with a fertility rebound and the moderating effects of gender equality on these associations. We find that policy combinations supporting the dualearners model are more conducive to fertility rebound, compared to those supporting the malebreadwinner model. Economic support policies have a stable positive relationship with the total fertility rate, while the effects of service and time support policies are contingent upon gender equality. Specifically, the effects of service and time support policies are more pronounced with higher levels of gender equality. These findings suggest that we need to consider the coordination and combination of different types of fertility policies, and rethink the value orientation and social background behind the policies, and promote a genderfriendly social environment.

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Who Needs More Fertility Policy Support?Fertility Decline from the Perspective of Role Conflict and Optimization of Occupational Structure

Yang Hui

Population Research 2023, 47 (4): 20-34.

Abstract （397）

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Using data from national population censuses and the 3rd survey on Chinese women's social status, this study systemically analyzes the relationship between womens number of live births by occupation from 2000 to 2020 and the optimization of their occupation structure. Occupationspecific analysis shows an increase in women's number of live births while a decrease in overall trend. This seeming conflict is resulted from the continuous optimization of female occupation structure throughout China's urbanization, industrialization, and modernization. Further, the increase in the number of live births differs across occupation categories. Female specialists, technicians, and clerical personnel have had the fewest number of live births and suffered the most from work-family conflicts. Future policies should provide more support to them to satisfy their needs for giving birth

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Differences in Mortality by Region in China since the 1980s and Their Evolution: The Staged Synergy between Medical Investment and Socio-economic Development

Li Ting, Yan Yuteng

Population Research 2023, 47 (4): 35-50.

Abstract （293）

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Exploring regional differences in mortality levels and their evolutionary trends is an important way to understand China's mortality and health transition. By using provincial mortality data from the third to the seventh censuses as revised by the Log-Quad Model and provincial statistics from various sources, this study analyzes variations in mortality levels and their driving mechanisms across age groups in China by space-time framework. It is found that firstly, the life expectancy gap between different regions in China has continued to show a pattern of being higher in the east and lower in the west, while the gap in infant mortality rates has narrowed and the gap in elderly mortality rates has increased. Secondly, with the shift in the epidemiological pattern of mortality, the driving mechanism behind the decline in mortality rates in China has shifted from medical facility investment to socio-economic development. The regional differences in mortality rates are largely driven by the stage-specific differences in the driving mechanisms of different regions. Given that socio-economic development has increasingly become the main driving force behind the convergence of regional mortality rates in China, efforts should be made to improve the socio-economic level of different regions, while consolidating existing medical investment.

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Lifetime Induced Abortion of Chinese Women: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis on the 1930-1969 Birth Cohorts

Lyu Lidan, Chen Yidi

Population Research 2023, 47 (4): 51-66.

Abstract （257）

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Most studies on induced abortion have been conducted based on period data; an analysis from a life course perspective is needed. Based on the life course survey data of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) in 2014, this paper analyzes the lifetime pregnancy information of women born in the 1930-1969 cohort. The hierarchical APC model is used to estimate the period, cohort, and age effects affecting the level of lifetime induced abortion among women. The results showed that the period effects reflected the adjustment of family planning policies and the development of reproductive health services. Regarding cohort effects, the quantity and the sex selection mechanism for induced abortion differed among women from different cohorts. The age patterns of induced abortion showed heterogeneity and regularity across women in different periods and cohorts. Future policies should improve reproductive health services, reduce unwanted pregnancies, promote gender equality, and focus on the health status of middleaged and older women who have experienced induced abortion.

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The Influence of Living Conditions on Depression of the Older People

Hou Jianming, Zhang Peidong

Population Research 2023, 47 (4): 67-81.

Abstract （368）

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With the continuous increase in the scale and proportion of the older population, the situation of population aging is becoming increasingly severe, and older people's depression is turning to be prominent. In the context of the implementation of the national strategy to address the problem of population ageing, this paper explores the influence of housing conditions on older people's depression based on the 2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study Data (CHARLS2018). Through using the two-stage least square regression, quantile regression, and threshold regression models, our results show that good living conditions can significantly alleviate older people's depression after effectively addressing the endogenous problem of the model, and the conclusion is robust. The improvement effect of living conditions is more pronounced as the degree of older people's depression increases. Furthermore, the influence of living conditions on older people's depression differs significantly among different age groups. Compared to individuals aged 60-64, the coefficient is higher for the people aged over 64. Enhancing the quality and ageing suitability of older people's housing is an effective approach to alleviate their depression.

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Urban-Rural Differences and Trends in Healthy Ageing of Chinese Elderly: An Analysis Based on the Life Course and Health Equity Perspective

Mu Yingtan, Long Fei, Yuan Xin

Population Research 2023, 47 (4): 82-97.

Abstract （361）

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Using data from CLHLS 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014 and 2018, this paper constructs a healthy ageing index based on multi-dimensional indicators to portray the age trajectory of healthy ageing of Chinese older adults. From the perspective of life course and health equity, this study analyzes the urban-rural differences and trends in the age trajectory of healthy ageing. The results indicate that the healthy ageing level of urban older adults is significantly better than that of rural older adults, mainly due to the urban advantages in childhood family background, socioeconomic status in adulthood, and institutional support. The urban-rural difference in healthy ageing weakens as age increases, showing a “convergence effect”. This difference has also narrowed across cohorts, mainly because the healthy ageing level of the younger cohorts in urban areas has declined substantially compared to older cohorts. This study discusses policy implications in improving the healthy ageing index system, strengthening dynamic monitoring, and focusing on the effectiveness of healthy ageing intervention policies from the perspective of life course and health equity.

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Trends in Educational Assortative Marriages in China by Couple Hukou Status, 1960-2018: An Urban-Rural Integration Perspective

Du Yongxiao, Dong Hao

Population Research 2023, 47 (4): 98-113.

Abstract （726）

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This study, from an urban-rural integration perspective, examines and compares trends in educational assortative marriages by couple's rural/non-rural hukou status. We use new methods, such as rank-rank correlation and Exchange Index, to analyze 81756 couples from nationally representative survey data (i.e., the 2003-2018 CGSS and 2010 CFPS). We find a substantial and persistent difference between rural and urban marriages. Couples who both have an urban hukou have more similar educational statuses than couples of whom either one or both have a rural hukou. This gap in homogamous tendency is mainly driven by highly educated couples. Moreover, we find gender-asymmetrical hukou-status exchange patterns for rural-urban inter-marrying couples, whose relative advantages in hukou or educational status could not compensate each other. These new findings reveal the profound influence of unbalanced development between rural and urban regions, highlighting potential directions for future policies for better incorporating rural-urban integration with sustained population development.

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The Influence of Clan Culture on Urban Entrepreneurship of Migrants

Sheng Yinan, Shang Jiajia, Zheng Haoran

Population Research 2023, 47 (4): 114-128.

Abstract （257）

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Clan culture, based on blood and kinship, is a major cultural feature of Chinese vernacular society. Clan culture not only has far-reaching effects at origin, but also continues to affect behavioral decision-making among migrants at destination. Based on the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS2017) data, the Probit model regression shows that the clan culture at origin significantly promotes migrants to make entrepreneurial choices. The mechanism analysis shows that clan culture has an impact on migrants' entrepreneurial choices through the formation of a hometown social network and social trust. Further research finds that clan culture promotes the choice of survival-oriented entrepreneurship among migrants, but is detrimental to the entrepreneurial effect of opportunity-oriented entrepreneurs, and that the urban formal system can replace the influence of clan culture on entrepreneurship. The policy implication of this study is that efforts should be made to use the hometown network social organization platform, build a general trust culture that goes beyond intra-clan trust, as well as actively explore the establishment of traditional Chinese culture and formal system complementary role mechanisms to help migrants start businesses and achieve entrepreneurial effects in the cities.

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“Getting Old before Getting Rich” in China: A Re-examination

Lin Bao

Population Research 2023, 47 (3): 3-16.

Abstract （678）

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This article systematically reviews various debates on the judgment of “getting old before getting rich” and puts forward a more intuitive criterion: the index of consistency between population ageing and development level. According to this criterion, all countries and regions can be divided into three types: getting old before getting rich, basic coordination between being “old” and being “rich”, and getting rich before getting old. Based on the data of World Population Prospects 2022 and Human Development Report 2021/2022, we assess the relationship between being “old” and being “rich” in China since 1990 and find that China has been in the state of “getting old before getting rich” since 1990, but this situation has been changing in recent years. Using per capita national income as a representation of being “rich” shows that China is moving out of the state of “getting old before getting rich” and entering the state of basic coordination between being “old” and being “rich”. Using the human development index as a representation of being “rich” indicates that China is at the point of transition between the two states.

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Productive Ageing Activities and Health Performance of Chinese Older Adults

Chen Lu, Wang Lu

Population Research 2023, 47 (3): 17-32.

Abstract （399）

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Using the 2018 China Longitudinal Ageing Social Survey (CLASS2018), this study constructs a composite index representing “productive ageing” based on nine activities, including helping children do housework, caring for grandchildren, and working. By employing simultaneous equations model, the health performance of “productive ageing” in China is identified. The results show that participation in “productive ageing” activities significantly improves the physical and mental health of older adults. These impacts differ significantly across gender, age, and education levels. When the participation level of “productive ageing” activities is low to moderate, its improvement effect on the physical health of older adults is better. However, when the frequency of helping children do housework and working is moderate, it negatively affects the mental health of older people. The effect of the number of “productive ageing” activities on older adults' physical and mental health exhibits an inverted Ushaped distribution. Notably, two or three “productive ageing” activities yield the best physical and mental health performance for older people.

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Typology of Older Adults Based on Production and Consumption Dynamics and Its Associated Factors

Wang Yongmei, Zhang Dongxia, Cao Yang

Population Research 2023, 47 (3): 33-48.

Abstract （360）

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This study presents a typology of older adults based on production and consumption dynamics, utilizing data from the 2018 China Longitudinal Ageing Social Survey （CLASS2018）. The latent class model and the multi-nominal logit regression model were employed to identify four types of older adults: those with low demands and productivity, those with high demands, those with high productivity, and those with high demands and productivity. Results indicated that over half of older adults contributed to their families or society, while only about one-fifth demanded informal or formal care. The probability of being an older adult with high productivity declined for those aged over 66, while that of being an older adult with high demands increased for those aged over 69. The productive and consuming behaviors of older people were correlated to the natural environments, institutional arrangements, and social contexts. This study provides evidence for the reform of the retirement age policies and the construction of a social service system giving equal weight to aged care and social participation.

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A Comparative Study on Population Change and Economic Growth between China and India: The Perspective of the Modernization of a Huge Population

Li Long, Jia Mohan, Jin Guangzhao

Population Research 2023, 47 (3): 49-62.

Abstract （502）

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In the context of the modernization within China's vast population, this paper compares the conditions of populations as they relate to economic growth in both China and India. These two nations are developing countries notable for their huge populations. The results show that the current development level in India is equivalent to that of China in the late 1990s. When compared from a similar start economic level, India has not yet demonstrated a higher or longer demographic dividend than China. Due to a significantly lower labor force participation rate in the working-age population, the size of the Indian labor force will not surpass that of China in the first half of the 21st century, enabling China to maintain its position as having the world's largest labor force. China has huge advantages in terms of human capital stock and the population urbanization. After entering the phase of “double second” in population and economic size, China, in particular, needs to transform its huge advantages in human capital into labor productivity and increased labor participation.

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The Employment Promotion and Environment Improvement through Sustainable Transformation in China's Resource-based Cities:The Perspective of Harmonious Co-existence between Humanity and Nature

Chang Dunhu, Li Mingkui, YuanJiaqian, ZhouJi, Ma Zhong

Population Research 2023, 47 (3): 63-77.

Abstract （296）

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The declaration “planning development from the perspective of harmonious co-existence between humanity and nature” provides guidance for integrating population development and green development in resource-based cities at the conceptual, factual, and policy levels. Empirical research of this paper has found that the sustainable transformation of China's resource-based cities aims to improve employment and economy, with population development being prioritized over green development. However, green transformation contributes more to employment rate than traditional industrial transformation. Cooperation between employment expansion policies and environment improvement policies is conducive to achieving mutual goals, mainly due to the reduced dependence on finance and the enhanced public services. The key to improving the sustainable transformation policies in resource-based cities lies in handling the relationship between partial and overall, short-term and long-term, as well as government and market concerning the mutual goals of employment promotion and environment improvement. Incentivized by the green transition of the development mode, the endogenous mechanism of mutual promotion of “employment priority” and “ecological priority” will be realized in resource-based cities.

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An Assessment of Lifetime Childlessness in China Based on the 7th Population Census

Zhang Cuiling, Jiang Yu, Zhuang Yaer, Jiang Quanbao, Yu Dian, Liu Wenli

Population Research 2023, 47 (3): 78-93.

Abstract （1156）

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According to the 7th National Population Census of China, the estimated rate of childlessness for women aged 49 is 5.16% in 2020, lower than that reported in the European Union (19%) and in the United States (11%). The heterogeneity of childlessness in China is increasing, showing distinct differences regarding to period, cohort, education, place of residence, and regions. The childlessness level of women aged 49 with high levels of education, living in cities and regions with ultra-low fertility levels is much higher. Factors like the acceleration of urbanization, the continued popularization of higher education, and the ongoing trend of marriage and childbearing delay would further promote the rise of the childlessness level. Given China's low share of non-marital births and third births and above, the continuous rise of childlessness level would have a stronger negative impact on the newborn population and total fertility rates, thereby affecting China's ability to maintain the aimed suitable fertility level. The government should attach great importance to and address the issue in advance.

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Re-examining the Old-age Dependency Ratio and Ageing Population in China

Dai Zhixin, Du Peng, Dong Junhan

Population Research 2023, 47 (3): 94-107.

Abstract （541）

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Using data from the 7th National Census of China and the United Nations' “World Population Prospects 2022”, this study analyzes the trend of China's population ageing. The findings reveal that the Chinese population is ageing rapidly. The ageing process will accelerate in the future, moving towards moderate and severe ageing. Consequently, the burden of old-age care will continuously increase. Meanwhile, the health and educational levels of the older population will also improve. In the context of continuous improvement of population quality, we take health status and educational levels into account when estimating the old-age dependency ratio. By replacing the population count with the total human resources, the revised old-age dependency ratio is lower than the traditional one, and its rate of increase is slower. This implies that the burden of old-age care for the working-age population in the future may not grow as rapidly as previously expected. With socioeconomic development and medical and health conditions improvements, population ageing needs to be measured with more comprehensive and appropriate indicators. This will help clarify the process of population ageing in China and actively respond to population ageing.

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Impairment-free Life Expectancy for People with Different Educational Levels：Based on the Bayesian Extension of Sullivan's Method

Wang Xiaojun, Huang Zihang, Qin Chengying

Population Research 2023, 47 (3): 108-120.

Abstract （364）

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Based on the mortality data of the Chinese population and the cross-sectional health data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, this paper uses the Bayesian extension method of Sullivan's method to study life expectancy, impairment-free life expectancy, and their changes over time among people aged 50 and over with different education levels. The results show that the higher the education level, the longer the life expectancy and the longer the impairment-free life expectancy. The higher the education level, the higher the proportion of impairment-free life expectancy in life expectancy. At the same level of education, women live longer than men, but they have shorter impairment-free life expectancy and longer impairment survival than men of the same age; Higher levels of education have a greater effect on physical function in younger age groups and in men; From 2013 to 2018, the growth rate of life expectancy for people aged 50 years and above exceeded that of impairment-free life expectancy, and there was a phenomenon of impairment expansion. Improving the education level of the population can effectively slow down the expansion rate of physical dysfunction.

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The Impact of Population Spatial Agglomeration on the Economic Growth of Urban Agglomerations in China: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis Based on 19 Urban Agglomerations

Tong Yufen, Yang Yanfei, Han Jiabin

Population Research 2023, 47 (3): 121-128.

Abstract （446）

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Population spatial agglomeration is the basis for the economic growth of urban agglomerations in China. A dynamic panel regression model is established on the basis of the theoretical derivation of the relationship between population spatial agglomeration and economic growth in urban agglomerations. The study has three major findings. (1) The spatial concentration of population in urban agglomerations in China has a significant impact on the economic growth of urban agglomerations. (2) The effect of population agglomeration on economic growth in urban agglomerations is a non-linear “inverted U-shaped” relationship. At the initial stage of population agglomeration, the population agglomeration to the core cities within urban agglomerations is conducive to improving the economic efficiency of urban agglomerations, and after the population agglomeration reaches a certain level, the economic efficiency will be weakened. (3) Industrial structure optimization and technological progress are useful for the economic growth of urban agglomerations. Capitalizing on the urban agglomeration dividend, it is important to reduce the negative externalities of excessive spatial concentration of population in urban agglomerations, thus promoting high-quality development of urban agglomerations.

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The Population Decline in China: A Global Perspective

Zheng Zhenzhen

Population Research 2023, 47 (2): 3-10.

Abstract （1055）

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The world has experienced population growth and fertility decline for nearly a century and has entered an era of deceleration of growth. China’s population change is consistent with the global trend, but the time length of the whole process has been significantly compressed. While the population size has peaked, China has quickly become an ageing society. Nevertheless, low fertility, stagnation or negative growth, and population ageing are not unique to China. In the 21st century, both China and the world need to face these challenges. China must adapt to these demographic changes and actively respond to the challenges as soon as possible.

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Negative Population Growth in China: Characteristics, Challenges, and Responses

Zhai Zhenwu, Jin Guangzhao

Population Research 2023, 47 (2): 11-20.

Abstract （1374）

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China's negative population growth is an objective law of population development, with a unique transition process and development trend. In the future, long-term and rapid negative population growth may pose challenges to the economy. It is necessary to cope with negative population growth actively by establishing a fertility support policy system, improving population quality, optimizing the spatial layout of the population, raising per capita consumption, and enhancing labor productivity.

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China's Declining Population Does Not Imply Declining Economic Growth: The Perspective of Steady Growth of Human Capital

Li Daokui, Li Keaobo, Wu Shuyu

Population Research 2023, 47 (2): 21-30.

Abstract （756）

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In 2022, China saw a population decline while just entering the rank of high-income countries. This has caused widespread anxiety in Chinese society. Worldwide, many analysts predict a rapid decline in China's economic growth due to the peaking of the population. However, we disagree with this by arguing that it is the stock of human capital, rather than the amount of young labor, that determines the growth potential of a country. By our estimates, due to continued improvements in public health and education, China’s aggregate human capital is positioned to continue growing steadily between now and 2050. Chinese aggregate human capital in 2050 will be equivalent to 1.644 billion by the health and education standard of 2020. This implies that the Chinese economy has the potential to continue growing at the pace of 5.9%, 4.9%, and 4.1% for the coming three decades, respectively. The key to realizing this potential for economic growth is to establish pragmatic policies to fully utilize China's increasing human capital.

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Promoting Transitions of Human Resource Development to Effectively Respond to Negative Population Growth

Ge Junyi, Duan Chengrong

Population Research 2023, 47 (2): 31-38.

Abstract （495）

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Chinese population development has entered an era of long-term negative growth with various new characteristics, which will keep normalization. At this historical juncture, we need to have a comprehensive understanding of the overall situation of population development and cope with the problems accompanying negative population growth. To effectively handle the negative population growth, we propose a ”quality, allocation, and openness” human resources development path. To be specific, we need to make the most of the population quality dividend, optimize the human resources allocation in accordance with the trend of population flows, and attract overseas intellectual resources by approaching the international human resources market.

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Rethinking Improving China's Population Development Strategy from the Perspective of Population Security

He Dan, Liu Zhongyi

Population Research 2023, 47 (2): 39-47.

Abstract （566）

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The concept of population security is one of the core concepts in the field of population development in the new era, as well as its extension, interpretation, and enrichment of a holistic approach to national security. Population security is not only the direct embodiment of a holistic approach to national security but also has a profound impact on political security, national defense, geopolitical security, cultural and ideological security, and socioeconomic security. China's population has undergone a fundamental transformation. The population development strategy in the new era urgently needs to integrate the perspective of population security and work together from the two dimensions of promoting population development and maintaining population security. We suggest to comprehensively implement a holistic approach to national security in the population development strategy, to strengthen population prediction and early warning, and prevent all kinds of population risks, to optimize the population development strategy to cope with the birth decline, to actively respond to population ageing and improve the ability to prevent risks, and finally to improve the population security system and promote family development to become a national strategy.

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Influencing Factors and Spatial Heterogeneity of China's Interprovincial Migration: An Analysis of the 7th Census Data

Wang Guixin, Chen Yujiao

Population Research 2023, 47 (2): 48-62.

Abstract （636）

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This paper uses the 7th census data to investigate influencing factors and spatial heterogeneity of China's interprovincial migration destinations from 2015 to 2020. The results show that recent changes in the macroeconomic environment and the New-type Urbanization Plan have attracted migrants to move back to the less developed provinces in central and western China. Meanwhile, the difference in regional economic development has narrowed. Therefore, the destination for interprovincial migration is decentralized. Economic factors such as the urban-rural income gap are still the most important factors affecting migration choice, while their influences have weakened significantly. Spatial factors have also been less important due to better traffic conditions. Migrants tend to move to places with good humanistic and social environments. There is also spatial heterogeneity in the influencing factors on interprovincial migration destinations.

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The Influence of COVID-19 on Fertility Intention under the Three-Child Policy

Shi Zhilei, Shao Xi

Population Research 2023, 47 (2): 78-95.

Abstract （542）

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COVID-19 has a huge impact on society. It is urgent to study how COVID-19 affects fertility intention. Based on the Hubei Fertility Survey, the study finds that COVID-19 has a positive effect on the fertility intention. As the risk level of epidemic increases by one unit, there would be an increase of 39.6% in the fertility intention of the second child and an increase of 55.6% in that of the third child. Further analyses show that, for the second child fertility intention, COVID-19 has a more significant promotion effect on groups with high self-rated socio-economic status, high education level, and non-agricultural Hukou. For the third child fertility intention, COVID-19 only promoted the fertility intention of groups with high self-rated socio-economic status, high education level, and non-agricultural Hukou. These results have import implications for understanding the fertility changing trend during the post-epidemic era.

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The Mechanisms of House Prices on Family's Fertility Decision-making：Empirical Analysis Based on CFPS Data

Zhang Fen, Fang Yingfeng, Peng Haochen

Population Research 2023, 47 (2): 96-111.

Abstract （576）

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In the context of rising housing prices and declining fertility rates in the past few years in China, the article first builds a model to explain the relationship between housing prices and family fertility decisions from a theoretical perspective. Then, from an empirical point of view, based on the panel data from 2010-2018 China Family Panel Studies, it is found that the urban housing prices in the counties where the family is located have a significant negative impact on their current fertility decision. Such impact also differentiates among sub-groups. Moreover, after the Chinese government carrying out the “two-child” policy, the negative impact becomes even stronger than before. In terms of the mechanism, housing prices have a crowding-out effect on fertility, and it can also affect fertility through reducing women's self-identity and increasing the cost of raising children. In addition, high housing prices have an inhibitory effect on marriage, which further exacerbates the negative impact on the fertility rate.

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